The future of the British right: cooperation, competition, or collapse?
In the aftermath of the Conservative party’s historic defeat in the 2024 general election, the British political right arrived at a critical crossroads. The party, now polling in third place, faces growing pressure to define its identity and is challenged by a rising Reform UK by Nigel Farage.
With the upcoming May 1 local elections, discussions about a possible alignment, or even a merger, between the two parties have accelerated, despite denials by senior figures.
Tees Valley Mayor Ben Houchen, a prominent Conservative party voice, has suggested a “coming together” between the two parties might ultimately be necessary to prevent the left from maintaining power. Speaking to Politico, Houchen said: “If we want to make sure that there is a sensible centre-right party leading this country, then there is going to have to be a coming together of Reform and the Conservative party in some way.”
A leaked recording of Shadow Justice Secretary Robert Jenrick indicated that he was “determined to bring this coalition together” before the next general election, although he later insisted his remarks referred to uniting voters, not parties. Nonetheless, the political conversation has shifted: what once seemed unthinkable is now a live question and real posibility at the heart of British conservatism.
Divided and defeated: The Conservative Party’s struggle for relevance
After fifteen years in power, the Conservative party suffered its worst election defeat in modern history, securing just over 20 per cent of votes, winning only 121 seats, down from 365 in 2019. Labour secured a commanding majority, but the most striking feature of the result was not just the scale of Conservative party losses, but the emergence of Reform UK as a potent force on the right.
In over 170 of the 251 constituencies lost by the Conservative party, the number of Reform UK votes exceeded the margin of defeat, splitting right-wing voters and enabling Labour candidates to win.
In the wake of this defeat, Kemi Badenoch’s leadership was intended to signal a reset. Positioned firmly on the right of the party, she was selected last year in November not only to stabilise the Conservative party but to reclaim voters tempted by Reform UK’s populist insurgency.
Badenoch’s early leadership message for the Conservative party emphasised “authentic Conservatism,” a rejection of electoral pacts, and a cautious reassertion of traditional values such as low taxation, small government, and national sovereignty.
Despite Badenoch’s ideological positioning remaining broadly aligned with the party’s post-election right-wing direction, her lack of public appeal remains curiously flat. Her public appearances have been limited, her interviews tightly controlled, and her media strategy cautious. Her team defends this as discipline in an attempt to rebuild credibility, but there is growing frustration both within and outside the party.
A former advisor told the Guardian: “Kemi absolutely hates doing media. She does not see it as an integral part of her job.”
“We could get away with that in government but in opposition you have to turn up to the opening of an envelope. She should be trying to get clips on the news every night. But she is not prepared to do it”, they added.
Nigel Farage, by contrast, has pursued a highly visible and carefully choreographed public campaign. He has used frequent appearances on GB News, direct-to-camera social media clips, and high-attention public events to keep himself, and Reform UK, at the centre of the political conversation.
His direct, emotionally charged, and highly repetitive message is calibrated not for traditional political debate, but for maximum digital amplification. Whether speaking about immigration, economic decline, or “Conservative betrayal,” Farage presents a clear, combative narrative designed to dominate mainstream news and social media algorithms alike.
Beyond domestic media tactics, Farage’s ability to maintain relevance has been reinforced by his long standing relationship with U.S. President Donald Trump. Farage has not only spoken at Trump campaign rallies but frequently references the former president as a political ally and ideological counterpart. This connection serves a dual function: It elevates Farage’s international profile and situates Reform UK within a broader global populist movement that many disillusioned voters find compelling.
This imbalance in visibility is starting to matter politically.
Badenoch’s personal popularity ratings fall far behind both Keir Starmer’s and Nigel Farage’s. An April 2025 YouGov poll found just 16 per cent of voters had a favourable view of Badenoch, compared to 27 per cent for Farage and 28 per cent for Starmer.
If it persists, the lack of voter recognition and failure to capture both mainstream and social media attention could prove disastrous for the Conservative party in upcoming elections. Some polls are now showing Reform on 25 per cent, ahead of Labour on 23 per cent, with the Conservatives languishing at 20 per cent.
The rise of Reform: can it become a credible long-term party?
Reform UK’s rise from fringe pressure group to national political force has been rapid, but it remains uncertain whether the party can transform short-term populist appeal into lasting electoral presence. Its current popularity stems not from institutional strength or detailed policy agenda, but from the strategic use of public disillusionment.
The question now facing Westminster is whether Reform can consolidate its current polling position, or whether it will be constrained by the same contradictions that have undone similar movements in the past.
While at present, Reform polls consistently in the mid-twenties, competing directly with Labour and the Conservatives in national datasets, the party’s rise has not been without friction. Its internal stability has already come under pressure, raising doubts about its readiness to scale into a permanent electoral force. It has experienced high-profile fallouts between senior figures, disagreements over messaging, and inconsistent candidate vetting.
One of the most visible examples of Reform UK’s vulnerability emerged during its high-profile engagement with Elon Musk in late 2024. Farage actively courted Musk for financial backing, proposing crypto-linked policy trials and radical digital deregulation. While Musk initially expressed interest, even considering a substantial donation of up to $100 million, the relationship soured by early 2025. Musk publicly criticised Farage’s leadership, suggesting he “doesn’t have what it takes” and advocating for his replacement. This episode not only highlighted the party’s susceptibility to external influences but also raised questions about its strategic direction and internal decision-making processes.
The party’s most recent controversy saw the suspension of Great Yarmouth MP Rupert Lowe amid bullying allegations. It followed mounting internal tensions after Reform’s strong surge in the polls, which had intensified questions about the party’s governance, future leadership, and Farage’s near-total control over strategy and messaging.
Lowe, a former Member of the European Parliament (MEP) and one of Reform’s higher-profile recruits, had become increasingly critical of Nigel Farage’s leadership style, describing it privately and later publicly as “messianic” and overly personalised. He had also reportedly been advocating for a more decentralised structure within Reform, which could diminish Farage’s dominance and allow greater influence from the party’s MPs and Councillors.
The allegations that triggered Lowe’s suspension emerged just days after a series of internal confrontations, including a meeting in which Lowe had openly challenged the leadership over Reform’s financial transparency and candidate selection processes.
An independent investigation led by barrister Jacqueline Perry KC concluded that there was credible evidence that Lowe and his staff had unlawfully harassed two female employees, contributing to a toxic workplace environment. The rapid timing of the disciplinary action, however, has fueled speculation that the suspension may have been at least partially motivated by an effort to neutralise internal dissent.
Lowe said he had “no faith that this investigation has been conducted in a fair manner” and it was not “ a fair process designed to find the truth.”
His decision to launch a defamation lawsuit against Farage and senior Reform officials suggests that the internal conflict will not quietly disappear but could instead escalate into a damaging public legal battle.
Whether the party can evolve into a credible parliamentary force will also depend on its ability to professionalise without losing its populist edge and address a growing perception that it remains, at its heart, a vehicle for one man’s political agenda.
Merging the right: could Conservative Party and Reform UK form a coallition?
While merging with Reform UK is seen by some as an admission of defeat, a growing number of Conservative party figures appear more open-minded about the possibility of some form of alignment. The debate is no longer purely theoretical: with local elections days away, the practical implications of a divided right are becoming unavoidable.
Publicly, both sides remain unequivocal. Conservative party leader Kemi Badenoch has repeatedly stated that they will “not do a deal with Reform” while Nigel Farage has dismissed the idea outright, positioning Reform as a party founded precisely to challenge the traditional dominance of the Conservative party.
With local elections approaching both the Conservative party and Reform UK seem to become more pragmatic in their approach, suggesting the possibility of some kind of alliance, at least on local level.
In a notable shift from his previous positions, Nigel Farage has signalled that Reform is open to “working with anybody” at local government level. Speaking at a press conference in Dover, he said his party could cooperate with Conservatives, independents, and even Labour or Liberal Democrats, as long as Reform’s conditions on public spending reviews and governance reform were met. This contrasts starkly with his earlier statements opposing collaboration “at any level,” and appears to open the door to informal local arrangements after the 1 May elections.
Farage’s comments came shortly after Kemi Badenoch herself had suggested that Conservative local associations would have autonomy to decide post-election working relationships, depending on local political dynamics. Though both leaders continue to reject a national coalition, their language now recognises that strategic local arrangements could become a political necessity in councils without overall control.
The most plausible short-term outcome could be an unofficial electoral arrangement between the Reform UK and the Conservative party. This would not involve a public announcement or coordinated manifesto, but resemble the tactical voting practices observed between Labour and the Liberal Democrats in 2024. Both Reform and the Conservatives could simply scale back active campaigning against one another in key marginals, reducing the risk of vote-splitting without formalising any alliance.
Such a division of labour would maximise the collective right-wing vote across the country without requiring either party to compromise its branding. However, it would demand an unprecedented level of coordination and mutual trust, both of which remain in short supply.
While previously suggesting a desire for unity, Senior Conservative MP and previous leadership hopeful, Robert Jenrick said there will be no cooperation between the Conservative party and ReformUK while appearing on ITV’s Good Morning Britain on Friday.
He said: “Kemi Badenoch and I are on exactly the same page,” Kemi has been very clear there won’t be a pact with Reform, and I’ve said time and again that I want to put Reform out of business. I want to send Nigel Farage back to retirement.”
In response, Farage infamously nicknamed him “Robert Generic”, questioning whether his new hardline positions were genuine or merely careerist opportunism. Farage accused Jenrick of “shaping himself up” to become the next Conservative party leader and suggested that individuals like him epitomise why Reform voters distrust the Conservative Party so deeply.
Farage was clear, even if Reform and the Conservative party cooperate at a local level, he has no intention of aligning nationally with a leadership he regards as untrustworthy and emblematic of the old political order.
Farage’s deputy, Richard Tice, has struck a marginally softer note, acknowledging that Jenrick is “saying good things on justice” but is simply “in the wrong party.” Nonetheless, the dominant view within Reform remains that their objective is not alliance with the Conservative party but long-term replacement of them as the dominant party of the right.
Featured image via Consolidated News Photos/Shutterstock and The Conservative Party/Flickr.
