The 2024 General Election will go down in Conservative Party history as one of the worst electoral performances for the party: according to some, the first of a number of poor electoral performances that could see the Conservatives drop from being one of the two top performing parties in UK politics. In 2025, therefore, with a new leader and new political battles being fought, there will be a number of opportunities and challenges facing the oldest party in the world.
The Conservatives V2.0
Finding an excitedly pro-Conservative voter in 2024 was difficult. Many of their 23.7% of voters were shy voters, unlikely to bungee jump for votes, nor take social media by storm for support, with another significant chunk of voters voting simply out of opposition to other parties, more than an eagerness to support the Conservatives.
But now, with a new Parliamentary cohort and new leadership under Kemi Badenoch, the hopes of a rebrand are right around the corner. Indeed, with two of four former prime ministers being out of the Commons (Johnson and Truss), and a third being sat in the lower-profile House of Lords (May).
Commentators have highlighted different opportunities for a rebrand for the Conservatives, that would allow them to draw a clear line in the sand between the Conservatives of the past, and the Conservatives of the future. Indeed, Badenoch herself has outlined that her party were kicked out of office due to not being trusted and not delivering. In her own victory speech, she promised renewal of the party (her campaign slogan being ‘Renewal 2030’).
But whilst the rhetoric is strong, the actions are less-so. The Conservatives are yet to come out with a bold vision for what their party is standing for (a problem facing a number of political parties at the moment). Whilst they have been vocal opponents of Government policies including the fiscal measures implemented in the Chancellor’s Autumn Budget or the recent controversy on child grooming gangs, they are yet to tie these together under a cohesive narrative.
Whilst such a narrative understandably will take time to create, the lack of a clear vision means that Labour’s own difficulties adapting to Government are less well exploited by the Conservatives. And in the face of an increasingly multipolar political system with an increasing number of relevant political parties, the Conservatives cannot afford to risk appearing unclear or indecisive as an opposition party.
The Conservatives: Leaders of the Opposition or One of Many Oppositions?
In the UK’s first-past the post electoral system, the advantage of being one of the two major parties cannot be overstated. When voters become disillusioned with incumbent governments, they will often turn to the ‘only other party who can beat the [Incumbents]’ (a phrase familiar to anyone who will have received political literature from a political party). When you have a clear Government and a clear Opposition, those two parties both gain from the system. However, when you have a number of credible, or at least pronounced, opposition parties, suddenly this ‘two-party system’ begins to break down.
For the Conservatives, this is exactly what is happening. On one hand, the rise of Reform UK has offered a challenge on the right, forcing the Conservatives to be more hardline on culture war issues and other policies including immigration or taxation. On the other hand, the unexpectedly strong electoral success of the Liberal Democrats has given them a parliamentary party that can be a formidable fighting force against the Conservatives, and will compete for the title of de facto opposition on the green benches.
Either way, and not discounting smaller parties like the SNP or the Green Party who each pose light threats to the Conservatives in different ways, the Conservative Party faces a key threat: no longer being seen as the key opponents to a Labour Government, and therefore, a safe place to put your vote if you don’t like Labour, but one of many choices, or worse yet, one of the less likely choices to beat Labour.
If Badenoch and the Conservatives want to keep their influence in UK politics, as they have done for previous centuries, they must be prepared to wipe out not only the hard-right Reform UK, but also the moderate Liberal Democrats. Moving too far in one direction may risk leaking votes to the party of the other direction… difficult electoral maths for the Conservatives in 2025.
Final Thought
The Conservatives will face a monumental challenge to turn the party away from its disastrous 2024 election result, with a battle on three fronts (Labour, Liberal Democrats and Reform UK). If it was hoping to have a moment to recuperate and restructure itself, it may not get its wishes fulfilled: The May 2025 local elections are largely expected to return another negative result for the Conservative Party (although recent news of local elections being delayed, in particular in Conservative-controlled local authorities, may provide some breathing space).
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