The 2025 local elections have delivered a significant shift in the nation’s political dynamics, putting pressure on both the Conservative Party and Labour. In the first major electoral test since Labour’s general election victory last year, voters elected representatives to 24 local authorities, chose six regional mayors, and decided a high-stakes parliamentary by-election.
Reform UK, under Nigel Farage’s leadership, made significant gains across the country, winning its first parliamentary by-election victory in Runcorn and Helsby by a razor-thin margin of six votes – a seat previously considered a Labour stronghold. The party also won its first two mayoralties in Greater Lincolnshire and Hull & East Yorkshire, and gained over 600 council seats.
In parallel, the Conservatives experienced a dramatic collapse, losing more than 650 seats and control of key local authorities across England. Labour, retained several mayoralties, but ultimately have been deeply embarrassed by their loss of almost 200 council seats.
Who is the biggest winner of the 2025 local elections?
These elections revealed mounting voter dissatisfaction with the traditional party system, raising questions about the future of mainstream parties.
Reform UK gained over 600 council seats – a tenfold increase on its previous total – and now controls major county councils such as Kent, Staffordshire, Derbyshire, and Lincolnshire. In Staffordshire, where the Conservatives previously held 53 of 62 seats, Reform gained a clear majority, taking 45 seats and reducing the Conservatives to just five. The party also secured its first mayoral positions: Andrea Jenkyns, a former Conservative MP, won in Greater Lincolnshire with 42% of the vote, while former Olympic boxer Luke Campbell triumphed in Hull & East Yorkshire with 36%.
The party’s parliamentary by-election victory in Runcorn and Helsby was particularly symbolic. Reform’s Sarah Pochin won by just six votes, overturning a 14,800 Labour majority from the 2024 general election. The seat had been vacated after Labour MP Mike Amesbury resigned following a criminal conviction.
While Labour remains the party with the largest number of councillors, its performance fell short of expectations, with Prime Minister Keir Starmer saying they need to go “further and faster” to deliver the change people voted for.
In the Doncaster and North Tyneside mayoral elections, Labour retained power but with significantly reduced margins – the winning margin being just 444 votes in the latter. Vote share dropped by double digits in many former Labour safe zones, and internal criticism of Keir Starmer’s leadership intensified. Local Labour officials cited the government’s tightening of welfare and migration policies, and dissatisfaction with public service funding, as key factors behind the backlash.
The Conservatives have faced their worst local election results in a generation. The party lost more than 650 councillors, with many core areas falling to Reform. In Lincolnshire and Nottinghamshire, long-time Tory control was overturned by Reform UK. The party placed third in multiple mayoral contests – behind both Labour and Reform – including in West of England, where the Conservatives trailed the Greens.
Kemi Badenoch, the Conservative leader, admitted the scale of the defeat, and pledged to rebuild among voters: “We are renewing our party, we are rebuilding, but it’s going to be a long journey.”
The Liberal Democrats and Greens made modest but strategically important gains. The Lib Dems increased their councillor count by over 150 and took control of Oxfordshire, Cambridgeshire, and Shropshire. They gained ground particularly in suburban and rural areas in southern England where the Conservative vote collapsed. The Greens added seats in urban centres like Bristol and rural pockets in Gloucestershire and Worcestershire, but their mayoral bids stalled, most notably in the West of England where they finished behind Reform.
Will the results translate into votes at general elections?
A crucial question after any mid-term surge is whether it will carry over to the next general election. History suggests caution. Local elections are not always accurate predictors of general election outcomes – especially when a surging third party is involved. One of the main differences is voter turnout: local contests saw turnout in the 30-40 per cent range in many areas, while general elections typically attract 65-70 per cent of voters, including many who don’t participate in locals.
Protest votes and dramatic swings are also more common in lower-stakes elections, when voters feel freer to “send a message” without changing national government. By contrast, some voters may return to the big parties in a general election, calculating that the choice of Prime Minister or overall government is at stake.
The First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) electoral system further complicates translation of vote share into seats. A party can command a sizable nationwide vote (15-20 per cent or more), but only win a few constituencies if its support is thinly spread. Nigel Farage’s previous party, UKIP, encountered this problem before: in 2015, it scored 12.6 per cent of the UK-wide vote – a third-place finish in vote share – but won only a single MP. Millions of UKIP voters were scattered across constituencies where they placed second or third, leading to minimal representation in Parliament.
A similar risk faces Reform UK. Even if Farage’s party continues to poll in the high teens or 20% range nationally closer to the next general election, it would need to concentrate that support to actually win parliamentary seats. That is why the results of these local elections could be so significant – winning the by-election in Runcorn shows they can win in industrial, traditionally Labour areas, and their council victories show strength in rural Tory constituencies.
Another factor is that local election voting patterns can shift when scaled up. According to a BBC projection of the 2025 local votes onto a hypothetical national map, Reform UK would lead with about 30 per cent vote share, with Labour on 20% and the Conservatives down at 15%. If those numbers stayed the same at the next general election, British politics would be turned upside down.
However, mid-term projections often overstate the third-party’s strength – while the governing party usually performs worse in mid-term locals than in a general election. Unhappy supporters can abstain or defect temporarily, then return once government control is on the line. Likewise, some Conservative voters might treat a local election as an experiment (voting for Reform or Lib Dem) but revert to the Tory fold in a general election if faced with the prospect of a second Labour term or a hung parliament.
Even if Reform fails to keep its momentum until the next general elections, its impact could be significant even if Farage’s party doesn’t win hundreds of MPs. In the short term, their presence alters the strategic landscape for 2025-2029. As one analysis noted, there were over 150 seats in 2024 where the Tories lost because the Reform vote exceeded the margin of Conservative defeat, splitting up right-wing voters.
Reform also threatens to play a similar role against Labour in certain seats (as seen in Runcorn): the 2029 general election could see many three-way contests that allow one of the traditional parties to win with a low plurality, or it could produce unexpected victories for Reform where its support is concentrated.
For now, strong local election showings can push major parties to adapt their platforms and messaging, which in turn influences general election trajectories. We have already seen Labour taking on a tougher stance on immigration and public spending to mitigate Reform’s appeal.
When UKIP surged in the 2010s, it ultimately pressured the Conservatives into holding the Brexit referendum – a reminder that smaller parties can have outsized influence without winning power directly, leading to drastic changes.
While Nigel Farage described these local elections as “The beginning of the end of the Conservative party”, it also poses the first real challenge for Reform. One of the party’s main appeals is its populist rhetoric, offering simple solutions to hard issues facing the UK, as well as portraying the two mainstream parties as incompetent and fundamentally out of touch with ordinary voters.
Final thought
With Reform councillors (and a new MP) chosen for their anti-establishment rhetoric, voters will be watching closely whether Reform-run councils deliver on their promises (or conversely, if they falter), which will undoubtedly affect public perception. Effective governance could lend credibility to Reform ahead of the general election, establishing it as a serious, long-term rival, while scandals or incompetence could halt its momentum.
As Keiran Pedley, Director of Politics at polling firm Ipsos put it: “With increased support comes scrutiny. Where they do win, they will need to show they can deliver the change their voters want.”
Featured image via ComposedPix/Shutterstock
