Friedrich Merz looked baffled as German Parliament president Julia Klöckner read out the result of the vote on Tuesday morning: he had received 310 votes, although his coalition made up of his Conservatives and the Social Democrats has 328 seats in parliament. This meant Merz was six votes short of the majority he would have needed to become the new German Chancellor.
At least 18 members of his coalition did not vote for him. On the afternoon of April 6, parliament voted again, this time electing Merz with 325 votes, with three unknown members of his coalition still not supporting him. Merz is the new German Chancellor: but today casts a shadow over the beginning of his tenure.
Usually, the vote for German Chancellor in parliament is a mere formality in German politics, with the real negotiations happening during the coalition forming in the weeks prior. Today makes Merz the first designated German Chancellor not to be voted in at the first round.
Conservative MP Mathias Middelberg said after the vote that some coalition members had just wanted “to blow off a bit of steam” by not voting for Merz in the first round – but the vote has uncovered some deeper issues for the new German Chancellor.
What does this mean for Merz’s government?
In the last government coalition between the Social Democrats, the Greens and the Liberals regularly blocked laws, essentially paralyzing the administration for weeks at a time, and ultimately leading to the government’s collapse last November.
Merz then often accused the former German Chancellor, Olaf Scholz of not being strong enough to keep his three-party government disciplined, calling him weak and unfit for office- and vowing to bring more stability once he became German Chancellor.
“We desperately need that stability,” Peter Adrian, president of the Association of Industry and Trade told Public Broadcaster ZDF, adding that the “German economy really needs someone to take the wheel and change course.”
Germany is currently looking at the third consecutive year without economic growth, and the country’s traditionally dominant manufacturing industry is struggling.
Amidst the way Merz formed his government in the last few weeks, his administration finally bringing some stability did seem realistic: Nicknamed the “great coalition”, Merz crafted a government made up of the two biggest German parties, the Social Democrats and Conservatives.
In theory, the two have a very comfortable 12-seat majority in parliament, and historically, “great coalition” governments usually oversaw periods of calm and stability, most recently under Angela Merkel.
But after today’s vote, the prospect of stable governance seems far away. If Merz’s new coalition struggles to even agree on him becoming German Chancellor, how will they govern day to day? Any legislature Merz wants to pass as the new German Chancellor will require the majority he struggled to achieve today- even worse, if parts of his coalition keep disobeying him like they did today, Merz may even have to look beyond his government for a majority.
This could mean that every law he wants to pass requires mini-coalition talks with the Greens, the only party he is allowed to cooperate with, as Merz is bound by non-cooperation agreements against the Socialists to the left and the AfD on the right. The Greens, meanwhile, have already said they think Merz’s current plan for Germany is not what they think is right for the country, and refused to vote for him today. Germany may be in for chaotic times.
Who revolted against Merz at the German Chancellor vote?
As both rounds of the vote for German Chancellor were anonymous, nobody knows who in the coalition did not vote for Merz- but many quickly pointed to the Social Democrats. Having lost February’s election resoundingly, the party had entered coalition talks with Merz’ Conservatives, not least because there was no other possible coalition. During the negotiations, the Social Democrats reshuffled their leadership, as German Chancellor Olaf Scholz resigned, but party chairman Lars Klingbeil stayed in power.
Klingbeil then consolidated his power, sidelining vice-chair Saskia Esken and announcing he would become finance minister in Merz’s new government, making him the Social Democrats’ most powerful minister. This was not popular with many at the party base, who questioned why the man who led them to election defeat in February is now the party’s new strongman.
The refusal to vote for Merz today may thus be a sign that Klingbeil lacks support within his party. But the list of social democratic grievances goes on, and is not just directed at their own leadership- many also have a problem with Merz personally.
Additionally, Merz has moved his Conservatives to the right politically, proposing a harder line on immigration and often making news with controversial statements. In 2023, he accused Ukrainian refugees of “stealing the German’s dentist appointments”, and the year before, he said they were engaging in “social tourism”, allegedly simultaneously cashing in on benefits in Ukraine and Germany.
Regarded as socially conservative, Merz also opposed the criminalization of rape in marriage in 1997 as an MP, and said that he was alright with the mayor of Berlin being a gay man “as long as he does not come too close to me” in 2001. He was heavily criticized by the Social Democrats for all of these statements- and it is possible some refused to vote for him as a result in the first round today.
Many Social Democrats and potentially some within his own party are also said to not have forgiven Merz for a u-turn on the “debt ceiling”. The coalition of Social Democrats, Greens and Liberals governing Germany for the last three years ached under this debt ceiling, a law putting an iron limit on how much money a government can borrow.
Citing crucial investment needs amidst the recession, the coalition tried to rally a two-thirds-majority to overturn the limit in a bipartisan effort- but Merz refused, saying his party would solve the issues without weakening the debt ceiling. Right after winning February’s election, Merz then gave way for the debt ceiling to be reformed.
The outrage was immense, as his ratings plummeted and 73 per cent of Germans said in a poll that they felt blatantly lied to. Some anger from that time may have motivated today’s revolt.
Merz’s cabinet appointments also angered some on the left, and also in his own party. For instance, young hopeful Carsten Linnemann surprisingly did not become Economics minister, and Merz chose relatively unknown Katherina Reiche instead. Reiche was an MP until 2015 when she left politics to head several energy companies, a background criticized by some on the left as being too “big business”.
Similar criticism has been directed at designated Digitalization Minister Karsten Wildberger, who is chairman of electronics retailer Saturn and had never worked in politics before. Wildberger is also not a party member. In Merz’s own party, the appointments also angered the “workers wing” of the Conservatives, who criticized being snubbed entirely in favour of business executives. This may have been the basis for some revolt as well.
Merz has been Weakened as German Chancellor, but is not to be underestimated
Officially made chancellor by the German President this evening, Friedrich Merz now has a lot of work to do. He has to reassure Germans that his government can bring the stability he promised them, and that this was just a slip-up. But Merz has proven he can deal with setbacks.
Described as Germany’s next Conservative leader in the 2000s, he was forced to leave front-row politics in 2002 after a dispute with then German Chancellor Merkel. Long deemed a failed political talent, Merz surprisingly came back into politics twenty years later.
Trying to become chairman of the Conservatives, it took him three votes across two years to finally get elected- but after he did, he led the struggling party to election victory. Bouncing back from defeats, so it seems, is his speciality. It remains to be seen if he can pull it off this time.
Featured image via Thomas Imo/Deutscher Bundestag.
