As voting opens tomorrow, this article details what electoral outcomes are in store for both the major and minor UK political parties and what this may indicate is in store for the next general election.
Tomorrow, elections are taking place across England and Wales, including for 11 mayors, 107 councils, and 37 Police and Crime Commissioners. In total, there are 2660 council seats up for grabs, with both the Conservatives and Labour defending nearly 1000 each, while the Liberal Democrats are defending over 400 and the Green Party over 100.
Electoral outcomes will serve as a gauge of the popularity of the two main parties and will serve to influence future government leadership. For the Conservatives, losing 315 seats would mirror last year’s performance, while losing over 480 would equal their worst-ever local election showing in 1995, two years before their landslide defeat by New Labour.
Navigating the Conservatives’ Electoral Fortunes
All eyes are on the Conservative Party, bracing for potential setbacks amidst widespread predictions of poor performance. The looming question does not seem to be whether they’ll falter, but to what extent. With the upcoming votes predicted to draw inevitable parallels with an impending general election, Sunak’s government remains on tenterhooks.
This electoral battleground revisits seats last contested in 2021 when the Boris Johnson led-Conservatives enjoyed a soaring trajectory, due to a positive response from the implementation of the new Covid vaccine, and before their challenges with Partygate, the Cost of Living Crisis and Liz Truss’ failed mini-budget. Thus, the Tories are predicted to face a significant plunge from their previous highs.
Crucial battlegrounds in Dorset, Nuneaton, and Gloucester underscore the doubtful balance of Conservative control, with both the Liberal Democrats and Greens mounting formidable challenges. The fates of key Tory figures like the Mayor of the West Midlands, Andy Street, and the Mayor of Tees Valley, Ben Houchen, intertwine with Rishi Sunak’s political destiny, as their ability to retain seats becomes predictive of party morale and the Prime Minister’s future.
Street’s concern with the poor performance of the Conservative party has prompted a subtle disassociation from the parliamentary Conservative party. The mayoral races in Tees Valley and the West Midlands therefore emerge as pivotal for the Conservatives, where the survival of incumbents like Houchen and Street would signal the enduring strength of Conservatives in an otherwise adverse political landscape. Even with the victories, however, commentators are already making the point that conservative holds would be in spite of Sunak, not thanks to him.
Amidst these uncertainties, there are some silver linings for the Tories. A majority of the 107 local authorities up for election are only replacing a third of their councillors, restricting the potential for big shifts in council control. Additionally, while Reform UK candidates pose a challenge on the right, they have limited representation, and have not lived up to their >10% polling scores, in recent by-elections
The Liberal Democrats’ Electoral Fortunes
With an eye on the ‘blue wall’ councils, the Liberal Democrats aim for a third, consecutive, triumphant performance, positioning themselves for potential success in the Westminster seats held by Tories. Their focus lies in targeting key constituencies within Conservative strongholds, aiming to secure control in pivotal areas like Wokingham, Elmbridge, Dorset and Tunbridge Wells.
Wokingham, along with West Oxfordshire, once the political backyard of David Cameron, present prime opportunities for Lib Dem advances. Additionally, Elmbridge, where Dominic Raab holds sway, stands as a top target for the party. Victories in these areas would not only mark significant territorial gains but also signal a challenge to the Conservative government’s dominance in blue heartlands.
The Lib Dems’ performance in these areas will not only gauge their electoral fortunes but also offer insights into the emergence of a potential second front against the government in traditionally conservative territories.
Assessing Labour’s Electoral Prospects
In pivotal battlegrounds like Milton Keynes, Labour seeks solid gains, recognising the city’s historical support correlating with general election victories (click here to view Chamber’s latest event – ‘A Dinner with Rachel Reeves,’ where Labour PPC for Milton Keynes, Chris Curtis, details Labour’s ambitions for the future). Similarly, the party aims for a resurgence in Hartlepool, a symbolic red wall council spoiled by a recent by-election defeat that spotlighted challenges to Starmer’s leadership.
Hyndburn, with its sizeable Muslim community, remains a focal point, reflecting Labour’s outreach efforts and potential challenges from factions discontented with the Labour Party’s handling of issues like the Gaza conflict. Meanwhile, results in places such as Oldham, Burnley, and Oxford will be closely watched for signs of emerging challenges from the party’s left flank.
Labour’s ambitions extend to traditionally contentious areas like Harlow, Thurrock, and Basildon, where gains would signify a shifting tide in the Thames Estuary, historically a swing region that has leaned conservative post-Brexit. These elections will gauge Labour’s resilience and directly test whether polling predictions hold true, revealing how much ground they can gain against the Tories.
A Closer Look at the Minor Parties’ Electoral Fortunes
Despite significant polling support, Reform UK has struggled to make an impact in elections thus far. This year, however, they are offering a larger slate of candidates, although covering only a fraction of constituencies. Reform will hope that strong showings in Bolton, Barnsley and the Blackpool South by-election serve as indicator as to whether they can translate polling strength into electoral success.
The Green Party sets its sights on Bristol, where they already hold the largest presence. A breakthrough here would bolster their campaign for Bristol Central, a coveted Westminster target seat where Green co-leader Carla Denyer tries to unseat Labour Shadow Cabinet Minister, Thangam Debbonaire.
Final Thought
With the general election on the horizon, each party’s outlook in these local elections will shape what lies ahead. Labour seeks a significant breakthrough to bolster confidence in their resurgence. The Liberal Democrats aim for progress in key areas of Conservative strength. While Reform UK and the Greens strive to prove their relevance to voters, the goal for the Conservatives is simply to hold their ground for the upcoming general election.
Please remember to bring your Voting ID tomorrow to the polls. Polls open from 7am-10pm and click here for information of where and how to vote.
To read more articles for insight on upcoming elections, please click here.
