Labour’s proposal to lower the voting age to 16 is often seen as a strategic move to bolster its electoral prospects, but shifting youth political dynamics suggest the benefits may not be as clear-cut. While historical trends show young voters leaning towards Labour, growing support for alternative parties and declining partisan loyalty indicate that enfranchising 16- and 17-year-olds could reshape, rather than simply reinforce, the political landscape.
A Bold Idea
Within Labour’s 2024 manifesto, plans were announced to lower the voting age to 16 across the UK. Whilst this plan was not included in the King’s Speech of July 2024, the party have stated that they plan to legislate for such a change before the next election (likely occurring in 2029).
For the past 11 years within Scotland, 16-year-olds have been able to vote in local council elections and Holyrood Scottish Parliament elections as well as the 2014 Scottish Independence Referendum in which Scotland voted “Yes” to remaining part of the United Kingdom.
Analysis undertaken by The University of Edinburgh and University of Sheffield showed that Scotland had maintained a boost in electoral engagement amongst first time voters enfranchised at 16 and 17. The report also showed how, within the 2021 Scottish Parliament elections, young people who benefitted from the lowering of the voting age to 16, were more likely to vote than young people who were first eligible to vote in an election aged 18 or older.
Neverthlesthe impact had been less positive within the Welsh landscape. Low turnout was seen amongst 16- and 17-year-olds in the 2021 Senedd Welsh Parliament elections. Socio-economic background also played a large role in whether a young person voted as well as familial engagement in politics.
Ultimately, these examples show how Labour’s plan would empower more young people to be engaged with politics but would need to be met carefully to ensure that social inequality does not rise due to the change.
The Youth Vote is Shifting
In a recent article, leader of Reform UK Nigel Farage claimed that Labour was trying to “rig” future elections by attempting to lower the voting age to 16. Although, the dynamics of young voters are changing at an almost unprecedented rate with many polls highlighting a shift away from Conservatives and Labour amongst all age groups and specifically amongst the youth.
Historically, 18–24-year-olds have been a core voting bloc for Labour which is why many claim that lowering the voting age will disproportionately benefit Labour. However, January 2025 voting intentions for the 18-24 category (as per Statista) show Labour polling with 36%, Conservatives with 5%. Most notably, perhaps, is that the Greens have 22% and Reform have 19%.
These numbers are stark for the largest two parties in Britain and show how partisan dealignment has been intensified. In comparison, 2019 General Election results for the 18-24 age range had Labour on 56%, Conservatives on 21%, Greens on 4% and Brexit Party (Reform’s prior name) on >1%. This pattern would only be intensified if 16- and 17-year-olds were to be added to the electorate.
Not only is much of the traditional youth vote moving away from the Labour, they are not moving to the Conservatives but are instead choosing alternative parties at a level never seen before in British electoral history.
Therefore, with an increasingly volatile electorate and a surge in support for parties to the left of Labour and right of the Conservatives amongst the youth, Labour may not benefit to the extent that many, predominantly right wing, commentators and politicians believe due to this unprecedented drop in youth support for the Labour Party.
Political Balancing Act
There is no doubt that Labour would likely still have the plurality of votes amongst the youth if 16- and 17-year-olds were able to vote- the reason many would be critical of an attempt to lower the voting age.
Whilst the Labour government under Harold Wilson introduced the last change to enfranchisement in 1969 (lowering the voting age from 21 to 18), the Liberal Party gave women over 30 the right to vote in 1918.
In addition to this, it was the Conservative government of 1928 which gave women over 21 the right to vote (the same as men at the time). These alterations over history show how changes to suffrage have not occurred from a singular party. In 1928, many felt that the lowering of the voting age for women would harm the Conservatives; the party won 13 general elections within the subsequent century.
Final Thought
Labour’s proposal to lower the voting age to 16 is a strong statement of intent from a party who were voted in with a promise of “Change”. At first glance, this policy looks like an attempt for Labour to increase their potential voter base. Yet, in reality, the lowering of the voting age would introduce a new generation of people to direct politics with parties having to appeal to 16- and 17-year-olds directly and from a younger age.
This would lead more of the youth to be politically informed and eventually lead to greater political literacy and democratic health. Not one party would be a direct beneficiary of this policy, instead, each political party would have the opportunity to appeal to a new generation of voters who will shape the future of the country.
For more of Chamber UK’s analysis on voting patterns, please click here.