Andy Burnham in Kyiv today after arriving in the Ukrainian capital on his first international visit to mark the country’s Independence Day.
The Prime Minister will reiterate the UK’s ongoing support for the Ukrainian war effort as Russia last week issued threats to the new Prime Minister. In response to the use of British-made drones in Ukrainian attacks inside Russia, the Russian Embassy released a statement: ““London’s actions will inevitably carry consequences for which it will have to answer”.
Burnham in Kyiv: New Commitments
The Prime Minister has a announced that the Ukrainians will now have access to classified information on UK components for the “Storm Shadow” long range cruise missile developed by MBDA.
The intention is that this will support a new Franco-Ukrainian production of the missiles within Ukraine’s borders. The missile is an important element of Ukraine long range strike capability and is launched from their Soviet legacy SU-24 strike jets.
As the war has developed since Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, the manufacture, capability and cost of long-range strike munitions have been an area of intense competition. The UK has also instituted “Project Brakestop” to rapidly develop low-cost long-range weapons alongside Ukraine.
Support So Far
The UK has been one of Ukraine’s most significant backers, both before and particularly since the full-scale Russian invasion of 2022.
So far the UK has committed £25 billion for Ukraine during the four years of war, including £16 billion in military support (though some of this sum is in loans). For comparison the annual UK defence budget is around £60-70 billion.
The UK has also imposed wide ranging economic sanctions on Russia, including oil sanctions which have resulted in a Russian “shadow fleet” of 600 ships attempting to maintain Russia’s oil trade. In June, Royal Marine Commandos boarded and took a “shadow fleet” oil tanker in the English channel.
Strategic Situation
Tensions between Russia and the UK predate the Russian invasion of Ukraine, as the attempted murder of the Skripals in Salisbury, the murder of Alexander Litvinenko, and repeated airspace violations illustrate.
Over the course of the war the Ukrainians have degraded Russian military capability, destroying strategic bombers, sinking the Russian Black Sea fleet and depleting their Soviet era land vehicle stockpiles.
At the same time NATO has added Sweden and Finland to their ranks and committed to a new 3.5% of GDP core defence spending target.
Final Thought
Despite the UK’s recent rapid turnover of Prime Ministers, five since the Russian full-scale invasion, British resolve seems unwavering in support of Ukraine.
Strategically, this seems like a shrewd bet, for the cost of a fraction of our defence budget and no British lives, the Ukrainians are crippling our primary strategic threat. Russian land forces have been denuded of vehicles, their black sea fleet largely lies on the ocean floor and their airframes are getting worn out if not completely destroyed.
When the Russian’s invaded in 2022, they were part way through a defence modernisation programme, much of which has now been put on hold as simply supplying their forces has become the priority. NATO was drifting, and as French President Emmanuel Macron put it in 2019, experiencing “brain death”.
Now the alliance is gearing up again, fuelled by valuable insights provided by Ukraine and facing a Russia that is struggling to protect it’s own borders.
The war has seen several twists and turns but it seems British support for Ukraine will continue until Russia comes to terms.
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Photo Credit: Photo Credit: Lauren Hurley / No 10 Downing Street