Today, Donald Trump is set to re-enter the White House for a second term, marking a monumental moment for the US and its allies. His return follows a contentious campaign and ongoing domestic divisions, with implications that stretch across the Atlantic. What does Trump’s agenda mean for the UK? From trade to climate, here’s what we can expect.
A Divisive Start: Trumpism and Cultural Backlash
Trump’s inauguration is shadowed by protests, including the People’s March, which attracted thousands to Washington, D.C. Protesters have cited concerns over his cultural and political agenda, from reproductive rights to climate scepticism. Though smaller in scale than previous marches, the demonstrations underscore a deep divide within American society.
In the UK, Trump’s polarising rhetoric could reinvigorate debates on social policies. His influence on populist movements globally raises questions about the resilience of progressive agendas in Britain.
Economic Policies: Growth or Turbulence?
Trump’s promise to “Make America Wealthy Again” centres on tax cuts, deregulation, and energy expansion. His proposed extension of the 2017 tax reforms, alongside further corporate tax reductions, is geared towards stimulating domestic industries. However, critics argue these measures may worsen income inequality and balloon the national debt, which already rose by $8 trillion during his first term.
For the UK, Trump’s economic approach could result in friction. His tariffs on foreign goods, including a proposed 20% levy, may disrupt global trade flows. While UK ministers, including Rachel Reeves, express optimism about potential trade deals, Trump’s “America First” strategy might pressure Britain to accept unfavourable terms, particularly in agriculture and digital trade.
Immigration: US Toughness, UK Reflection
Immigration remains central to Trump’s platform. His promise of mass deportations and stricter border policies signals a hardline stance. In the UK, where immigration has been a sensitive topic post-Brexit, Trump’s actions could influence calls for similar measures.
However, economic consequences in the US – such as labour shortages in industries like agriculture – might serve as cautionary tales for Britain. Striking a balance between public sentiment and economic needs will be key for UK policymakers.
Trade and Defence: Navigating the Transatlantic Tightrope
The UK remains eager to secure a comprehensive trade deal with the US, its largest non-EU trading partner. Chief Secretary to the Treasury Darren Jones recently highlighted opportunities in technology and research, expressing confidence in Trump’s deal-making instincts. However, concerns persist about Trump’s protectionist tendencies and his push for NATO allies to increase defence spending to 5% of GDP.
Such demands could strain UK budgets, particularly under Labour’s current spending priorities. Balancing NATO obligations with domestic fiscal commitments will be a significant challenge.
Climate and Regulation: Diverging Paths
Trump’s climate scepticism contrasts sharply with the UK’s Net Zero ambitions. His likely withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and focus on fossil fuel expansion could embolden climate critics in Britain. Meanwhile, regulatory clashes -particularly over digital standards and agriculture – may emerge if Trump challenges international norms.
Final Thought
Trump’s second term is bound to provide both opportunities and challenges for the UK. While a trade deal and enhanced cooperation remain on the table, his policies on tariffs, climate, and immigration could strain relations. For Britain, navigating this complex dynamic will require careful diplomacy and a commitment to balancing global alliances with domestic priorities.
Additionally, the unpredictability of Trump’s foreign policy approach underscores the need for the UK to strengthen its relationships beyond the US, particularly within Europe and the Indo-Pacific. As Britain seeks to define its role on the global stage post-Brexit, it will need to weigh the benefits of alignment with Trump’s administration against the potential risks to its standing in multilateral forums.
For more of Chamber UK’s analysis on what Trump’s presidency might mean for the UK, please click here.
