Westminster Polling Projection

Henry Snowdon

Polling Correspondent, Politics UK

Labour is now projected to win just 101 seats – and the data shows their vote collapsing in three completely different directions at once. Read Politics UK’s full polling analysis.

Voting Intention Seat Projection

Since the May local elections, successive polls have told a similar story. Reform is on course to win the most seats and is close to an outright majority. This poll is no exception, projecting 323 seats for Reform. More striking, though, is Labour’s steady slide. The forecast puts Labour at record lows – 18.5 per cent of the vote and 101 seats. To explore how this erosion is occurring, this article examines three constituencies that show Labour losing support on multiple fronts.

Leeds Central and Headingley

2024 Result Current Projection

The Green Party has surged in the polls since Zack Polanski became leader around two months ago, reaching a record 13.8 per cent in my current forecast. Leeds Central and Headingley exemplifies the kind of seat the Greens could capture at the next General Election. They already have a local base – they took 23.5 per cent at the General Election and won a key city council seat (Headingley and Hyde Park) in the 2024 municipal elections – and the demographics are favourable. Recent polling shows the Greens leading among 18–24-year-olds, and Leeds Central and Headingley has the youngest electorate in the country, with 41 per cent in that age group.

Reform won only 7.6 per cent here in 2024, so fears about splitting the vote and “letting Reform in” are far less likely to deter disillusioned progressives from voting Green. In short, young, highly educated urban cores, like Leeds Central and Headingley, are where the Green upswing – and Labour’s votes decline – and are most likely to produce tangible gains.

Seats With Similar Demographic Profiles to Watch Out For

Manchester Gorton, (Greens projected to win with 31.9 per cent of the vote)

Sheffield Central (Greens projected to win with 36.6 per cent of the vote)

Liverpool Riverside (Greens projected to come second with 26.2 per cent of the vote)

Doncaster North

2024 Result Current Projection

Reform is set to increase its support in almost every constituency as its vote share more than doubles. However, the rise will not be even, and Doncaster North is a useful case study of where a very large swing is likely – and why. First, the surge there is not merely projected – it has already begun. In the May council elections, Reform topped the poll in every ward within the constituency.

Nationally, those local elections and subsequent polling point to a clear pattern: Reform is over-performing in areas that are whiter, are more economically deprived, and have lower levels of qualification. Doncaster North fits that profile – it is the 75th most deprived constituency in England, is 97 per cent white, and has the 33rd lowest qualification attainment in Great Britain – making it a textbook example of Reform’s emerging heartland.

There is also symbolism in a swing of this magnitude. The seat is held by one of Labour’s most high-profile MPs, former leader Ed Miliband. His potential defeat would speak to Labour’s fraying relationship with parts of its traditional base, as soft-left progressive politics has, for many working-class voters, lost its appeal. It would also mark a genuine sea change. Doncaster North has only ever elected Labour MPs – it even resisted the Conservative surge in 2019. A heavy loss here would suggest Labour is in deep trouble.

Seats With Similar Demographic Polling Profiles to Watch Out For

Kingston upon Hull East (Reform projected to win with 49.3 per cent of the vote) 

Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes (Reform projected to win with 47.9 per cent of the vote)

Barnsley South (Reform projected to win with 52.5 per cent of the vote)

Similar Seats 

Hamilton and Clyde Valley – Snp 27.1% (current projection) 27.4% (2024 election)

2024 Result Current Projection

The Scottish National Party (SNP) is currently projected to win 45 seats, up from just 9 at last year’s General Election. That might suggest a major resurgence; however, the data says otherwise. The SNP is polling at 31.7 per cent – only 1.7 percentage points higher than at the General Election – and its support has mostly hovered within the margin of error over the past year. The real driver of change is Labour’s national collapse. Labour is projected at 15.3 per cent – down from 35.3 per cent. While a slice of that vote has moved to the SNP, a larger share has shifted to Reform.

A late-September Norstat poll found that 56 per cent of Scottish Labour voters intending to switch now plan to back Reform, while only 16 per cent are moving to the SNP. As a result – and after attracting an additional 4 to 8 per cent of 2024 SNP voters – Reform is polling at 21.1 per cent across Scotland and is competitive in many seats. Even so, because the SNP retains a poll lead and a relatively even spread of support, it is – so far – the main beneficiary of Labour’s collapse.

Hamilton and Clyde Valley best illustrates this pattern. It is the SNP’s lowest-share projected gain, with the party slipping by 0.3 percentage points yet still taking the seat due to Labour’s vote falling from 49.9 per cent to 26.7 per cent. Reform is also strong here, at a projected 22.5 per cent – putting the seat firmly in play. Variations of this story appear across constituencies Labour won in 2024 – a microcosm of Scotland’s current political landscape.

Seats With Similar Demographic Profiles to Watch Out For:

Ayr, Carrick, and Cumnock (SNP projected to win with 27.7 per cent of the vote)

Bathgate and Linlithgow (SNP projected to win with 28.8 per cent of the vote)

Central Ayrshire (SNP projected to win with 28.9 per cent of the vote)

Conclusion 

Labour is currently facing political losses in many divergent directions. In seats like Doncaster North, where their coalition relied on the white working class, they are losing out to Reform. In seats like Leeds Central and Headingley, where their coalition relied on young progressives, they are losing out to the Greens. And in Scotland, where their coalition relied on anti-SNP, and anti-Tory tactical voting, they are losing out to the SNP. The collapse of the Labour coalition has been quick and dramatic. As they are currently projected to win 101 seats, one begins to wonder how much lower they can go. 

This article was published in the latest edition of Chamber UK’s journal. To buy your copy or download an online version, visit: www.chamberuk.com/publications.