On Sunday, June 1, Poland returns to the poll for the second and final round of the Presidential Elections.
The country must vote between centre-left, pro-European candidate Rafał Trzaskowski, who stands for Koalicja Obywatelska (KO), the incumbent party, and Eurosceptic Karol Nawrocki, who has been backed by PiS (Prawo i Sprawiedliwość), the right-wing populist party that had previously been in power for eight years between 2015 and 2023.
More than a left or right-wing debate, this is about European integration and Poland’s stance to its neighbors Ukraine.
In the first round, Warsaw mayor Rafał Trzaskowski collected the most votes, registering 31.2 per cent of the total. The second-most votes went to Karol Nawrocki, on 29.7 per cent. Right-wing populist Sławomir Mentzen, known for his anti-EU rhetoric, was third with 14.5 per cent.
As an anti-establishment candidate, Mentzen looked to push his anti-Ukraine narrative, which has been central to his campaign. This is also why the Mentzen – Nawrocki debate was filled with less controversy than Trzaskowski.
Nawrocki stands for anti-abortion, anti-LGBTQ rights, and promised to never let Ukraine join NATO or the EU. He backed Romanian presidential candidate George Simon, who even joined him on the stage at a rally ahead of the first round.
Although Nawrocki is not a formal member of PiS, he has been backed heavily by the party, in part due to his opposition to Polish PM Donald Tusk.
PiS had been in power for eight years, until Donald Tusk’s KO won the parliamentary elections of 2023, marked by a liberal turn and a pro-Brussels stance.
In an attempt to rally home support, PiS have often looked to portray Tusk as a “German agent”, while Nawrocki himself claimed that the presidential elections were “a referendum about the Polish people rejecting Donald Tusk”.
Former Polish PM Mateusz Morawiecki, a member of PiS, also declared his doubts on the fairness of the elections, saying: “We have to be ready for this government rigging the election”.
Polish elections have been filled with worries of (foreign) interference from both sides, especially in the context of the Polish-Belarus border. Since 2020, Belarus has intensified efforts to destabilise Poland’s borders, promising Rwandan refugees free entry and funding their flights to Minsk. It was described as a “hybrid warfare” by Poland’s parties (both KO and PiS), leading to soldiers being deployed on the border.
In this context, the Polish Parliament voted almost unanimously to suspend all visas for refugees coming to Poland through the Belarus border, a measure in place for the next sixty days.
On May 15, Poland’s cybersecurity services reported attempts of foreign interference coming from Russia, three days before the first round. NASK, the committee in charge of national cybersecurity, warned that several hundreds of fake accounts spreading pro-Russian information on social media had been noticed.
Since then, the situation has not improved, with a Russian jet violating Poland’s airspace in a move described by Polish forces as “having an obvious malicious intent”. In addition to that, recent findings confirmed that a fire in Warsaw’s largest shopping mall last year had been orchestrated by Russia.
Trzaskowski has looked to further integrate in the EU, taking a pro-abortion stance as Warsaw’s mayor, and supported by Donald Tusk.
He also has promised changes in the constitutional court, who have become politically aligned with PiS during their power. He instead encourages them to be independent from political parties.
Despite being a pro-EU candidate, Trzaskowski has declared his opposition to the EU’s interference in Poland’s domestic policies, especially in the context of the Green Deal. However, he has supported a gradual transition to green energy on the condition that it is a “fair one”.
Both candidates held their patriotic march last Sunday, where voters rally around the candidates in a show of support: Trzakowski’s march reportedly had near double Nawrocki’s figures of atendees – estimated around 500,000.
As of Friday, May 30th, most polls have the two candidates at 47 per cent, although Nawrocki led in some by 0.5-1 per cent. The neck-to-neck race will be decided, similarly to Romania’s case, by the turnout.
Should Poland experience a rate higher than 70 per cent, Trzaskowski could be expected to come out victorious.
Similarly to Romania, Poland’s results will decide the fate of the EU’s stance to Ukraine, Russia and NATO. Romanian President elect Nicușor Dan travelled to Warsaw last week, to support candidate Trzaskowski, as a countermeasure to Simion’s support of Nawrocki.
Poland’s political positions makes it a swing state when it comes to pro-NATO policy, with the US formally sending a significant amount of troops every year. Although this has been reduced since Trump’s clashes with the EU during the second term, this could swing if Nawrocki comes out victorious.
On the other hand, a Trzaskowski victory would mean that US/Polish relations would be strained, which would be a disaster for Trump and MAGA. We have already seen some reluctance as PiS voters hoped VP JD Vance did not visit Poland ahead of the elections, which may reveal a reluctance of Trump’s camp to directly involve itself in foreign elections. Viktor Orbán would also lose his last significant partners in Central Europe, after losing the support of Romania with Simon’s defeat.
More than a battle between PiS and KO or about abortion, this vote will be a step back or forwards concerning Poland’s stance on European integration.
Author: Kai E. Iliev
Featured image via rarrarorro / Shutterstock.
