Britain is sweltering through a record-breaking UK heatwave. On 24 June, temperatures reached 36.1°C in Gosport, Hampshire, making it the hottest June day ever recorded in the United Kingdom. The previous June record had stood since 1957. According to reporting by Reuters and the Met Office, forecasters had warned that the June record was likely to fall as extreme temperatures spread across the country.
The significance of this latest UK heatwave goes beyond a single hot day. The previous record-breaking summer was only four years ago, when Britain exceeded 40°C for the first time. What once appeared exceptional is rapidly becoming normal.
Yet while temperatures are climbing, British politics appears to be moving in a different direction.
A Local Contest With National Consequences
One of the most important political stories of recent weeks has been the Aberdeen South by-election. It lacks the national profile of the Uxbridge and South Ruislip by-election in 2023 or the more recent Makerfield contest, but in the long term it may prove just as consequential.
According to BBC News, the Conservatives secured victory after campaigning strongly in favour of North Sea oil and gas production. In a constituency closely tied to Britain’s energy industry, arguments around jobs, investment and energy security proved politically potent.
The result highlights a growing tension within British politics. While climate change is becoming harder to ignore, concerns about jobs, growth and living standards continue to shape electoral behaviour.
Poll Leads Despite Climate Scepticism
That tension is particularly evident when looking at national polling. Reform UK continues to lead in the opinion polls despite taking a markedly different approach to climate policy from the political mainstream.
Nigel Farage has repeatedly questioned prevailing climate narratives. In 2025 he described it as “absolutely nuts” that carbon dioxide should be considered a pollutant, positioning Reform firmly against many of the assumptions underpinning Britain’s net zero strategy.
“The one thing I hear that drives me absolutely potty is that carbon dioxide is a pollutant! That’s what they tell us! That clearly is absolutely nuts.”
Nigel Farage – 2025
For Reform, opposition to net zero has become a core political message rather than a peripheral issue.
Following the Money
Questions have also been raised about who is funding that message.
An investigation by DeSmog, a global climate investigations outlet, reported that Reform UK and associated political causes have received millions of pounds from individuals linked to fossil fuel interests and organisations that have challenged climate science. The reporting argues that these networks have become increasingly influential in supporting political campaigns opposed to net zero policies.
According to DeSmog, Reform UK has received £24 million from oil and gas interests since 2019. Among its largest backers are former party leader Richard Tice, who has donated around £2.3 million while publicly dismissing the existence of a climate crisis; investor Jeremy Hosking, whose firm has substantial oil, gas and coal holdings; and shipping magnate Terence Mordaunt, a former chair of the climate-sceptic Global Warming Policy Foundation, whose company donated £200,000 to the party.
This creates a new political dynamic. The Conservative Party and Reform trying to unite the right wing of British politics and competing for fossil fuel donations to be able to do so. The result is a political debate that often focuses on the costs of climate action rather than the costs of climate change itself.
Labour is not immune from these pressures. The party’s reaction to the Uxbridge by-election in 2023 demonstrated how quickly political calculations can shift when voters perceive environmental policies as imposing immediate costs. Sir Keir Starmer subsequently softened elements of Labour’s green agenda, illustrating the tension between climate leadership and electoral pragmatism.
The UK Heatwave and Britain’s Political Future
That debate comes as the consequences of rising temperatures become increasingly visible. The current UK heatwave has disrupted transport, strained public services and prompted rare red heat warnings from the Met Office.
Scientists have repeatedly warned that heatwaves of this kind are becoming more likely. The Met Office notes that both the frequency and intensity of extreme heat events are increasing as the climate changes.
As Britain Bakes, Politics Hesitates
The political incentives are increasingly clear. Conservatives and Reform competing for fossil fuel money while Labour anticipate net zero becoming a vote loser.
With Andy Burnham seemingly about to cross the threshold at Number 10, one of his first decisions will be the role of Ed Miliband, the current Energy Secretary and the Government’s most prominent advocate for net zero.
Can Labour hold the line and continue the UK’s rapid and successful decarbonisation. Or will Ed Miliband be bought off, perhaps with a great office of state, in exchange for letting go of some climate ambition?
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Photo Credit: Kreuzschnabel