Reform UK leader Nigel Farage has won the Clacton by-election, increasing his majority in the seat from 18.3% in 2024 to 36.4%. His vote tally increased from 21,225 to 22,239. So what does Farage’s increased majority mean?
The result marks the end of a bizarre campaign, triggered by Farage himself when he resigned as an MP over an investigation into a personal donation he received in 2024.
The investigation into Farage is expected to resume, and could potentially trigger another by-election.
Farage himself did not attend the count, saying that “I am damned if I am going to stand on a stage, having won a resounding victory… and be demeaned and humiliated by nobodies.”
How on Earth Did We Get Here?
Farage announced his resignation as MP for Clacton, as well as his intention to represent Reform UK in the subsequent by-election, on July 7th.
This followed mounting speculation that Farage could be required to fight a by-election by the result of a parliamentary investigation.
The investigation, which was paused during the by-election campaign, surrounded an undeclared donation Farage received from Thai-based cryptocurrency investor Christopher Harborne, prior to his election as an MP at the 2024 General Election.
Farage has said that he was under “no obligation to declare something that is an unconditional, non-political, personal gift.”
Britain’s other political parties have condemned Farage’s resignation as a cynical attempt to avoid facing the consequences of the investigation.
“Nobody is going to get drawn into what is a political stunt” said the then Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper at the beginning of the campaign.
While Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch described the by-election as a “fake election, which Nigel Farage is causing to distract people from what is happening.”
The refusal of Labour, the Conservatives, the Liberal Democrats, the Green Party, and Restore Britain to stand candidates in Clacton ensured that Farage would be the clear favourite to retain his seat.
Despite the absence of the major parties, a record 34 candidates were listed on the ballot paper.
This included the satirical candidate Count Binface, whose large online profile meant he quickly became seen as the primary protest candidate.
Farage’s Increased Majority: What Does This Result Mean?
Despite Farage’s status as the clear favourite throughout the campaign, he will undoubtedly be pleased to have won the by-election, with an increased majority.
The fact he has spent much of the summer embroiled first in a parliamentary investigation, and then in an election where his leading opponent has been a sentient bin, may well have harmed the Reform UK leader’s personal image, despite his increased majority.
Farage was never likely to lose this seat. A poll from Survation conducted between July 16th and 24th put him on 73% of the vote, clearly ahead of nearest challengers Count Binface on 20%, and the Reclaim Party’s Laurence Fox on 2%.
A national poll conducted at a similar time by More in Common found that 37% of respondents wanted Count Binface to win the Clacton by-election, compared to just 32% who favoured Farage.
Reform’s poll ratings have also fallen recently.
More in Common estimated Reform had a 28% share of the national vote at the beginning of May, before the Christopher Harborne donations were first reported. This had dropped to 25% in a Yougov poll conducted the day before Farage’s resignation, and 22% in Yougov’s poll from the week before the by-election.
For Count Binface, this result marks something of a political breakthrough.
The candidate, whose real name is John David Harvey, has previously stood in the 2017 (under the name Lord Buckethead), 2019, and 2024 General Election, as well as the 2021 and 2024 London Mayoral Elections, and June’s Makerfield by-election.
This is the first time Binface has received more than 1% of a public vote. With his 26.9% share putting him clearly in second place, albeit a long way behind Farage’s 63.4%.
Binface said he was “gratified” by the result, and pointed out that “In Makerfield eight weeks ago I got 95 votes. So against Nigel Farage compared to Andy Burnham, I am 1,000 time more popular.”
Count Binface was also standing against representatives of the other main parties in Makerfield, and received much less media coverage than he did in Clacton.
What Happens Next?
The investigation into Farage’s handling of the Harborne donation can now resume, now that he has been elected as an MP.
If Farage is found guilty of misconduct then he may be temporarily suspended as an MP, or have to fight another by-election.
It is likely that the other major parties would choose to contest this second vote.
Farage himself is also under investigation by the Metropolitan Police over whether his failure to disclose the Harborne donations amounted to “misconduct in public office”.
A separate investigation by the Metropolitan Police into £500,000 worth of donations that Reform UK received from Fiona Cottrell, mother of the convicted fraudster George Cottrell, is also ongoing.
Final Thought
Nigel Farage triggered this by-election with the aim of using it to spread the narrative that it was a “people v. the establishment” contest.
That was immediately undermined by the refusal of the other major parties to stand candidates, and the unexpected popularity of Count Binface, both among Clacton’s electorate, and the country as a whole.
Reform UK’s recent decline in the polls is almost certainly partially due to the replacement of Keir Starmer as Prime Minister with Andy Burnham, but this distraction is unlikely to have helped Farage’s case.
Farage will however likely use his increased majority as evidence that the electorate support him, whatever result of the parliamentary investigation.
While the investigation into him may not be over, the man who is still bookmakers’ favourite to be Britain’s next Prime Minister, has at least survived this challenge.
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