Tens of millions of Germans went to the polls on Sunday 23rd February 2025 to elect 630 members of the Bundestag (German Parliament). Final results confirm that the CDU/CSU alliance emerged as the largest bloc with 34% of the vote, signalling a decisive shift in public sentiment.
The SPD, whose coalition government collapsed last November, secured 27% of the vote, while the Greens and FDP achieved 10% and 8% respectively. Notably, the far-right AfD doubled its vote share to 20%, intensifying debates over Germany’s political future. Early indications now confirm that Friedrich Merz is poised to lead the next government, potentially displacing Olaf Scholz, although coalition negotiations remain in progress as parties evaluate their options in this complex landscape.
The Rise of the Far-Right AfD
Merz and the CDU/CSU have maintained their refusal to form a coalition with the hard right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), thereby narrowing the range of potential alliances . One option under discussion is a ‘Grand Coalition’ between the CDU/CSU and the SPD—a formation with historical precedent in German politics—but internal controversy persists within the SPD, particularly over the CDU’s increasingly right-wing rhetoric on immigration .
In a striking development, AfD leader Alice Weidel has attracted endorsements from prominent international figures, including US Vice-President JD Vance and billionaire Elon Musk. These endorsements, alongside the confirmed 20% vote share, underscore the AfD’s strengthened position—even as Germany’s political system continues to enforce a strict ‘Brandmauer’ (firewall) between mainstream parties and extremist ideologies .
The AfD’s Unique Position
Recent developments further underline the AfD’s distinctive role within German politics. The party recently distanced itself from the hard-right EU Parliament grouping—which included parties led by figures like Giorgia Meloni and Marine Le Pen—to help establish the even more right-wing ‘Europe of Sovereign Nations’ grouping.
This move reinforces the party’s hardline stance. Notably, the election results indicate that approximately 20% of Germans cast their vote for the AfD—a doubling of their vote share compared to the 2021 elections. While this result highlights the growing appeal of far-right politics, there is also internal concern that endorsements from prominent US Republican figures may have, paradoxically, undermined their broader electoral appeal. For observers in the UK, particularly figures within Reform UK and former Brexit campaigner Nigel Farage, this serves as a stark reminder of how voter discontent with mainstream political parties can manifest in support for more radical alternatives, even when their policies diverge significantly.
Final Thought: What the German Election Might Mean for the UK
The outcome of the German elections is likely to reverberate far beyond Berlin. As one of the EU’s leading economies, Germany’s political realignment holds considerable implications for European and international relations – a development that UK policymakers and political analysts are watching with keen interest.
- Economic and Trade Considerations:
A shift in German leadership and potential reconfiguration of its governing coalitions could influence EU economic policies and trade regulations. Given that the UK continues to navigate the post-Brexit landscape, any significant policy changes in Germany may affect UK-EU trade relations, prompting UK businesses and government officials to reassess their strategies. - Security and Foreign Policy:
Germany’s stance on international security, defence, and migration has long been influential. A government led by Merz, coupled with coalition compromises, may herald a more conservative approach on issues such as immigration and European security. This realignment could have a knock-on effect on the UK’s security partnerships and its broader strategic positioning in Europe. - Political Sentiment and Electoral Lessons:
The rise of the far-right AfD offers a cautionary tale for the UK, where voter dissatisfaction with traditional parties has previously led to seismic shifts, as evidenced by Brexit. While the political landscapes in Germany and the UK are distinct, the increasing appeal of extremist alternatives serves as a reminder for UK political leaders to address public concerns and recalibrate their policies to maintain broad-based support.
In summary, while Germany’s electoral outcome might not directly mirror the UK’s political trajectory, it does offer significant insights into the evolving mood across Europe. For the UK, these developments underscore the importance of staying alert to shifts in continental politics and preparing for potential impacts on economic, security, and electoral arenas.
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