On Friday, Israel struck Iran with several high-precision strikes targeting nuclear and energy complexes and killing high-profile military generals.
Although Iran retaliated by striking Israel, the loss of some of Iran’s senior military commanders cannot be recovered.
As the world must shift to monitor a new front in the Middle-East, there is another loser in this weekends’ events. More than Iran, it is Russia that is losing a key battle, both at home and in the Middle-East.
Six months ago, Russia lost its most important partner of the Middle-East, as Bachar Al-Assad fled from Syria. Syria had been a major outlet for Russian influence in the Middle East and Africa, the evacuation of Al-Assad meant Russia’s soft power in region was greatly disrupted.
More than for Vladimir Putin himself, it was an important route for the Wagner Group, as the paramilitary organization sought to expand its operations in the African continent.
When Israel struck Iran, and more importantly, killed several high-ranking military officers and its energy supplies, the consequences were felt in Moscow.
Similarly to Syria, Iran has long been a key partner for Russia in the region, one of the few that remains standing with tangible power.
More than Iran’s nuclear program, it is high-tech military warfare that Moscow needed. In the first months of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Iran supplied Vladimir Putin with drones which were necessary in an increasingly technology-influenced war. With time, Russia increased its drone production, but the science, resources and much of the infrastructure required to sustain Russia’s war remains Iranian.
A direct Iranian-Israeli conflict can change everything
Russia now finds itself at the crossroads of several decisions, all of which lead to unfavourable outcomes.
It cannot focus on Iran and supply, as it would be weakened on the Ukrainian front. After three years war, the priority will always be this front. Russia reliance on Iran’s drones and its inability to protect its allies while concentrating its forces in Europe may be an issue for its erratic allies.
Russia is not the superpower it onced used to be. It has struggled to mobilize, with reports from BBC Russia demonstrating most of the soldiers came from poor regions and were frequently underequiped and undertrained.
Gradually, more and more partners have come to realize that Russia is either not a trustworthy partner, as it fails to keep its promises, or that it is too distracted.
Russia’s policy of the Middle-East was often to portray itself as a neutral arbiter, while collaborating with key partners.
It has however taken a clear stance in this case, as Russia’s Foreign Ministry called the Israeli strikes “a clear violation of the UN Charter”. This diplomatic isolation is unlikely to help Russia’s case, as the country now appears hypocritical after being accused of several war crimes under the Geneva Convention.
It is no secret that Russia has completely disregarded the UN Charter in its entirety in the last three years, and therefore leaves the taste of a tragicomedy with its “concerns” over the UN Charter when it best suits them.
Most of the Western World was quick to condemn Iran after the attack on Tel-Aviv. The nuclear program has been a worry for the US for a long time, while European leaders like Keir Starmer and Emmanuel Macron insisted Israel has the right of “self-defense”.
Macron declared his country would participate in “defense programs” with Israeli forces and both the UK and the US have already confirmed they would be ready to send jets and other military gear to monitor the region.
At the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, there were few military supplies. Ukrainians were told they would be supported financially, or through humanitarian aid, but struggled to produce a military deal.
The West told Ukraine that military aid would be counter-productive, as it would “provoke Russia”, while Putin’s propagandists threatened to strike into Europe, threatening Scandinavia and Poland in particular.
Israel, on the other hand, only moved a finger until the West came to its rescue. Despite starting wars by themselves, they made it a Western war, instead of leaving the Middle-East to decide by itself.
By now, the double standards have become clear: When Ukraine looks for high-range weapons, it’s “escalation”. When Israel does it, it’s “self-defense”.
Featured image via Mohammed Mohsin Ali / Shutterstock.
