Miles Bennington

Editor – Chamber UK

In what they bill as a historic council housebuilding comeback, the Government today has announced the allocation of nearly £10 billion to 33 strategic partners including councils that will build 70,000 homes over the next ten years.

The programme is targeted that 60% of these affordable homes will be for Social Rent.

These allocations are the first in the £39 billion Social and Affordable Homes Programme.

Affordable Homes: The Numbers

I must admit that I am getting housing announcement fatigue. Perhaps that is unfair to lay at the feet of the new Andy Burnham led Government but Labour have been in for two years. Their signature housing promise was to build 1.5 million homes over the Parliament, or 300,000 per year.

That is an ambitious and worthy goal.

As you can see from this chart. The UK has failed to build much more than 200,000 homes per year since the 1970s.

As you may also notice, the reason is for the end of council house construction. Good news! Andy Burnham has pledged to bring back council house construction.

The bad news is that he has not specified how he will achieve this.

Labour’s Record

Currently Labour has:

· Restored mandatory local housing targets

· Rewritten The National Planning Policy Framework to require councils to build

· Targeted lower quality Green Belt areas for development as the “Grey Belt”

· Passed the Planning and Infrastructure Act 2025 to speed up planning permission

· Created the £39 billion Social and Affordable Homes Programme for 2026-36

· Extended preferential borrowing rates for council housebuilding

· Proposed seven new towns

The net result has been effectively no increase in building. If you can show me the housing boom on the below graph I would be very impressed.

Every year that passes, the Labour target of 1.5 million homes this Parliament gets harder to hit.

Generously speaking, we build about 200,000 homes per year. To hit the target from 2024 we needed to average 300,000 homes per year. After two years of Labour Government we now have have a 200,000 home deficit. So for the remainder of the Parliament we will have to build 367,000 homes per year.

This is impossible.

Labour have allocated £39 billion to this problem. Today’s £9.6 billion allocation is for 70,000 homes over ten years assumes a per unit cost of £135,000, which feels ambitious to me, and in any case blows the target date for the 1.5 million homes out of the water.

If we were to divide £39 billion by the actual number of homes required to hit Labours target (assuming a base rate of 200,000 homes per year we know we can build), then they have allocated about £78,000 per home required.

Laughable.

Right To Buy

The problem at the heart of British housing policy is the Right To Buy. The fiendishly popular, Thatcher era policy that gives council tenants the Right To Buy their council homes at a discounted rate.

As you can see from the first graph, this 1980 policy all but did for council construction. It destroyed the incentive to build as councils could no longer hold onto expensive assets they had built or sell them for more than they cost to build. Worse, it created a policy that is great for individual council tenants but toxic to the institution of council housing.

Politically, it has been a third rail. Labour have been scared to touch it for forty years. Without effectively ending the Right To Buy, and somehow entrenching that situation so that the next Tory government doesn’t immediately undo it, then there is no incentive for councils to build.

As you can see from the above, councils are only starting to recover from Coalition-era spending cuts and with an ever-increasing social care burden, they are unlikely to be in a position to bail out the Government’s housing target without financial incentives to do so.

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Burnham’s Test

The housing target remains in place, Burnham has pledged to get councils building again, he has pledged to end rough sleeping by Christmas, and best of all, The Social Housing Bill was introduced in the Lords in May. It’s specific remit, to reform the Right To Buy scheme to protect social housing stock. What more could I possibly want?

Reading a summary of the Bill, it takes an axe to Right To Buy as it stands:

· New homes exempt from Right to Buy for 35 years, giving councils confidence they can retain homes they build.

· Council market-rent homes exempt from Right to Buy, allowing rental income to cross-subsidise new social housing.

· Lower Right to Buy discounts, reducing losses when council homes are sold.

· Rural homes exempt from Right to Buy, protecting stock that is difficult and expensive to replace.

· Permanent council right of first refusal, making it easier to bring former council homes back into public ownership.

This is a good thing. If this Bill can re-establish a financial incentive for councils to build, then it will be a triumph. It has currently passed Third Reading in the Lords, the question is will it survive the political scrutiny in the Commons?

So far there has been little blowback over the effective end to Right To Buy so it will be interesting to see if that remains the case when it reaches the Commons this Autumn.

If a storm is brewing, it will be a direct challenge to Burnham’s central pledges as Prime Minister, and an end to any real prospect of this Government making any headway on housing at all.

Photo Credit: Lauren Hurley / No 10 Downing Street

The Prime Minister will reiterate the UK’s ongoing support for the Ukrainian war effort as Russia last week issued threats to the new Prime Minister. In response to the use of British-made drones in Ukrainian attacks inside Russia, the Russian Embassy released a statement: “London’s actions will inevitably carry consequences for which it will have to answer”.

Burnham in Kyiv: New Commitments

The Prime Minister has a announced that the Ukrainians will now have access to classified information on UK components for the “Storm Shadow” long range cruise missile developed by MBDA.

The intention is that this will support a new Franco-Ukrainian production of the missiles within Ukraine’s borders. The missile is an important element of Ukraine long range strike capability and is launched from their Soviet legacy SU-24 strike jets.

As the war has developed since Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, the manufacture, capability and cost of long-range strike munitions have been an area of intense competition. The UK has also instituted “Project Brakestop” to rapidly develop low-cost long-range weapons alongside Ukraine.

Support So Far

The UK has been one of Ukraine’s most significant backers, both before and particularly since the full-scale Russian invasion of 2022.

So far the UK has committed £25 billion for Ukraine during the four years of war, including £16 billion in military support (though some of this sum is in loans). For comparison the annual UK defence budget is around £60-70 billion.

The UK has also imposed wide ranging economic sanctions on Russia, including oil sanctions which have resulted in a Russian “shadow fleet” of 600 ships attempting to maintain Russia’s oil trade. In June, Royal Marine Commandos boarded and took a “shadow fleet” oil tanker in the English channel.

Strategic Situation

Tensions between Russia and the UK predate the Russian invasion of Ukraine, as the attempted murder of the Skripals in Salisbury, the murder of  Alexander Litvinenko, and repeated airspace violations illustrate.

Over the course of the war the Ukrainians have degraded Russian military capability, destroying strategic bombers, sinking the Russian Black Sea fleet and depleting their Soviet era land vehicle stockpiles.

At the same time NATO has added Sweden and Finland to their ranks and committed to a new 3.5% of GDP core defence spending target.

Final Thought

Despite the UK’s recent rapid turnover of Prime Ministers, five since the Russian full-scale invasion, British resolve seems unwavering in support of Ukraine.

Strategically, this seems like a shrewd bet, for the cost of a fraction of our defence budget and no British lives, the Ukrainians are crippling our primary strategic threat. Russian land forces have been denuded of vehicles, their black sea fleet largely lies on the ocean floor and their airframes are getting worn out if not completely destroyed.

When the Russian’s invaded in 2022, they were part way through a defence modernisation programme, much of which has now been put on hold as simply supplying their forces has become the priority. NATO was drifting, and as French President Emmanuel Macron put it in 2019, experiencing “brain death”.

Now the alliance is gearing up again, fuelled by valuable insights provided by Ukraine and facing a Russia that is struggling to protect it’s own borders.

The war has seen several twists and turns but it seems British support for Ukraine will continue until Russia comes to terms.

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Photo Credit: Photo Credit: Lauren Hurley / No 10 Downing Street

The Government has launched a new £28 million Ultra-Long Duration Energy Storage (Ultra-LDES) Challenge, opening another source of public funding for UK businesses developing technologies capable of helping solve one of the biggest challenges facing the transition to renewable energy.

Announced on 20 August by the Department for Business, Innovation, Science and Trade (DBIST), the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (DESNZ) and UK Research and Innovation (UKRI), the programme will support technologies capable of storing clean energy for at least 100 hours.

That is equivalent to providing power for homes and businesses for more than four days, helping the electricity system bridge extended periods in which wind and solar generation is low.

The programme will focus particularly on new battery technologies and underground hydrogen storage, with Government arguing that developing both at scale could reduce Britain’s exposure to volatile international gas markets while opening up new industrial and investment opportunities.

Why storing renewable power for 100 hours matters

Wind and solar are now among the cheapest sources of electricity available in Britain, but their intermittency creates a fundamental challenge.

When generation exceeds demand, renewable electricity can be wasted or constrained. When wind and solar output falls, the system requires other sources of electricity to make up the difference, including gas-fired generation.

Ultra-long duration storage is intended to bridge that gap by allowing large quantities of renewable electricity to be stored when generation is plentiful before being released back into the system when it is needed.

The Government believes reducing reliance on natural gas could both strengthen domestic energy security and insulate households and businesses from some of the international commodity price movements which contributed to the recent energy crisis.

Science Minister Chris McDonald MP said:

“When we unlock the potential of science and innovation, it can improve all of our lives. That is what this challenge is all about; using the world class scientific expertise that we have in the UK to benefit people in every postcode.

“Clean sources of power are vital to meeting our energy needs as a nation. If we can meet the challenge of storing energy from renewables, we will improve our energy security, bring down energy bills in the long-term, and leave all of us better off.”

Batteries and hydrogen form two sides of the challenge

The programme is divided into two principal areas.

The first will support the development of electrochemical technologies capable of supplying electricity for more than 100 hours. Many of these technologies have yet to reach commercial deployment at scale, creating an opportunity for Britain to establish domestic manufacturing, intellectual property and supply chains as the global market develops.

The second will focus on systems capable of storing hydrogen underground and releasing it when required.

Government estimates suggest this could eventually reduce total energy-system costs by between £14 billion and £50 billion between 2035 and 2050.

Energy Minister Michael Shanks MP said:

“Homegrown clean energy is our route to more affordable bills and energy security and storing it for when we need it most is critical.

“By backing new cutting-edge battery technology and hydrogen storage with this £28 million grant, we will store more clean power, reduce reliance on expensive gas generation and deliver a more secure energy system.”

For the businesses developing these technologies, however, the challenge is not simply proving that an innovation works.

Moving emerging energy technologies from demonstration into commercial infrastructure requires businesses to demonstrate technical viability, deliverability, economic value, credible routes to market and their potential contribution to wider Government objectives.

That is where previous experience of securing Government backing for emerging clean-energy technologies could become increasingly relevant.

Curia Past Success: building the investment case for green hydrogen

Independent policy institute, Curia has previously worked with energy infrastructure developer Carlton Power to demonstrate the wider economic, social and environmental value of emerging green hydrogen projects.

Curia produced detailed assessments covering Carlton Power’s proposed green hydrogen developments at Trafford in Greater Manchester, Barrow-in-Furness in Cumbria and Langage near Plymouth.

Rather than focusing solely on the engineering proposition, the work sought to establish what investment in the projects could mean for their surrounding economies.

Curia assessed factors including local economic growth, jobs, skills, carbon reductions, energy resilience, impacts on local industry and wider social value, drawing on Government data alongside evidence gathered from stakeholders, suppliers and prospective hydrogen users.

The Barrow analysis, for example, estimated that development could support more than 300 jobs, contribute millions of pounds in Gross Value Added to the local economy and avoid more than 23,000 tonnes of carbon emissions annually.

At Langage, Curia estimated the project could add £1.26 million in GVA to the local economy by 2030, while helping demonstrate how smaller distributed hydrogen facilities could support industrial decarbonisation and renewable-energy integration.

Importantly, the work also considered the projects against the Government’s Social Value Model, helping translate a new energy technology into the economic and public-policy outcomes relevant to Government investment decisions.

All three Carlton Power projects were subsequently successful in the first Hydrogen Allocation Round, securing financial contracts from DESNZ.

The projects represented around 55MW of capacity and approximately £100 million of investment, providing a useful case study in how emerging energy projects can build an evidence base extending beyond the technology itself.

The experience does not mean independent policy analysis alone wins Government funding. But it demonstrates the importance of being able to answer a wider set of questions: What problem does the technology solve? What economic value will it create? Where will the jobs be? Who will buy the product? What are the environmental benefits? And how does the project contribute to Government’s wider objectives?

Those same questions are likely to matter as businesses compete for the next generation of clean-energy funding.

A £3 million competition is already open

Alongside the wider £28 million programme, UKRI has launched an initial competition providing up to £3 million for project-development studies into electrochemical ultra-long duration energy storage.

UK registered businesses can apply individually or as part of collaborations, with projects expected to examine areas including technology, engineering design, costs, scale-up, markets, manufacturing, supply chains and future development.

Individual funding requests are expected to fall between £350,000 and £700,000, with the competition closing on 30 September 2026.

A further at least £10 million is planned for a second phase supporting large-scale demonstrator projects, currently expected to launch in 2027.

For innovators, that means the current competition is as much about establishing whether projects can move credibly from concept to deployment as it is about advancing the underlying technology.

Building a new UK energy-storage industry

Jenny Hill, UKRI’s Clean Energy Challenge Director, said:

“Ensuring the UK has the technologies capable of storing energy efficiently and effectively is a vital part of the equation in the move to a clean and more secure energy system. This Challenge will help propel the UK to the forefront of the global energy storage market, creating skilled jobs and attracting private investment.”

The industrial opportunity could extend well beyond batteries.

As renewable electricity generation grows, hydrogen could provide a mechanism for converting excess renewable electricity into an energy source capable of being stored over significantly longer periods before being returned to the energy system or used directly by industry.

Clare Jackson, CEO of Hydrogen UK, said:

“Ultra-long duration energy storage is critical for ensuring the UK moves to a more secure, low-carbon energy system with lower costs for consumers and businesses. Hydrogen has a fundamental role to play in that future energy mix, providing a way to store renewable energy over long periods and use it when the system needs it most. Supporting the development of hydrogen storage alongside flexible power generation will be key to unlocking these benefits across the wider energy system.

“The Ultra-LDES Challenge is an important step towards developing the technologies and infrastructure the UK will need at scale, and we look forward to supporting the innovative hydrogen technologies that emerge.”

From public funding to private investment

The £28 million Ultra-LDES Challenge forms part of a much bigger attempt to use Government research and innovation spending to establish commercially viable industries.

It completes the rollout of £102 million of Clean Energy challenges, alongside the £74 million Consumer-led Flexibility Challenge.

Both sit within the R&D Missions Accelerator Programme, through which Government plans to invest at least £500 million by 2030, while seeking to leverage a further £1.5 billion in private investment alongside public money.

That private-investment dimension will ultimately determine whether technologies backed by programmes such as Ultra-LDES develop into significant British industries.

Government grants can help de-risk early development and demonstration, but successful businesses will still need to prove their commercial markets, build supply chains, secure private capital and demonstrate measurable economic and social returns.

Previous projects such as Carlton Power’s green hydrogen developments illustrate how building that wider evidence base can support the journey from an emerging technology proposition towards Government backing and private investment.

With billions likely to be invested in Britain’s electricity system over the coming decades, the £28 million announced this week may be relatively small in isolation.

The bigger prize is whether it helps create technologies, businesses and supply chains which allow Britain to store its increasingly abundant renewable electricity – and turn an energy-system challenge into a new domestic industry.

Find out more

Curia is supporting members as they look to enter this Challenge with advisory services.

To speak to Curia’s expert team at the Clean Energy and Environment Research Group, please contact team@curiauk.com

It includes raising the maximum fine for those found to have dumped waste illegally, and granting more power to regional mayors and local council leaders.

A statement from the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA), also announced that the government will directly fund clean-up operations at three “super sites”.

Prime Minister Andy Burnham echoed his first speech as Labour Leader, when he said he hoped his fly-tipping strategy will “bring hope back to Britain’s communities.

Fly-Tipping Strategy: What Has Been Announced?

The new fly-tipping strategy was announced jointly by Burnham and Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, Angela Eagle.

The statement said that DEFRA will focus on “better use of drones, a bigger role for the police and the National Crime Agency, more Environmental Agency (EA) officers on the front line, and a steep rise in fines”.

Eagle herself will chair a new Waste Crime Crackdown Group, which aims to unite environmental regulators, such as the EA, with local law enforcement teams.

She said that the government were “cleaning up sites, but we are also stopping the cycle, driving faster prevention and disruption, better intelligence, and stronger coordination across the system.”

Police officers will now be given access to AI-controlled drones, which are designed to detect illegal waste dumping as it happens. It is hoped that this will allow officers to respond more quickly to illegal activity.

On top of this, the maximum fine for individual found to be dumping waste illegally will rise from £300 to £5,000.

“The days of making easy money out of waste are over” the Prime Minister said in Wednesday’s announcement.

Burnham’s fly-tipping strategy builds on the measures set out by Keir Starmer’s government in March’s Waste Crime Action Plan.

These included the introduction of digital waste tracking, to allow law enforcement officers to better understand the methods used by organised waste dumping gangs. As well as the creation of the Online Waste Hub, which provides the public with information on the EA’s efforts to reduce illegal waste dumping.

The Scale of the Problem

The EA’s National Waste Crime Survey, published in July 2025, estimated that roughly 20% of all UK waste was being managed illegally.

87% of farmers and landowners surveyed reported being affected by small scale fly-tipping, with 21% saying they had been affected by large scale fly-tipping.

The problem of large scale fly-tipping was made even more apparent by a BBC investigation from March this year.

This research identified 11 “super sites”, where 20,000 tonnes or more of rubbish had been dumped illegally, including one in Andy Burnham’s own constituency of Makerfield.

While the clear-up operation at this specific site has already received government funding, reports from the Guardian suggest that locals are unimpressed with the progress made so far.

The EA hopes that Burnham’s own fly-tipping strategy will yield more success.

“By strengthening our intelligence and analysis capability” said EA Chief Executive Philip Duffy, “EA teams will be better placed to stay well ahead of the criminals behind this activity and support the recover of the places we call home.”

Reducing the scale of illegal waste disposal may also bring financial benefits to the government, with landfill tax evasion costing the government an estimated £150 million in 2023-24.

The Regional Perspective

The new fly-tipping strategy is another area Burnham has identified as being an opportunity to devolve power to regional mayors.

The Mayors of West Yorkshire (Tracy Brabin, Labour) and Greater Manchester (Bev Craig, Labour) will reportedly be the first to be involved with the “new region-led approaches to waste crime”.

These will “give Mayors and council leaders the lead in co-ordinating councils, police, regulators, and other enforcement agencies” says DEFRA, “with decisions driven by regional intelligence and by the communities worst affected.

Burnham’s fly-tipping strategy also includes specific plans to deal with three of the “super sites” identified by the BBC.

Waste sites at: Power Station Road, Isle of Sheppey, Kent; Aymer Close, Runnymede, Surrey; and Midland Road, Bradford, West Yorkshire, will all receive direct funding towards their clean-up operations.

DEFRA says these sites were chosen based on “scale, risk to nearby communities, environmental damage, and links to persistent non-compliance and organised waste crime.”

Final Thought

Efforts to reduce illegal waste dumping, and improve the living conditions of people in the worst affected areas, are something a vast majority of the public can support.

This will only remain the case though, if they prove to be effective.

Burnham’s decision to announce the fly-tipping strategy so soon after the Waste Crime Action Plan shows both an acknowledgment of the need for urgent and decisive action, as well as a lack of faith in the pre-existing measures.

The emphasis on the devolution aspects of the strategy also represents Burnham’s commitment to empowering regional mayors. This must however be balanced against the need for the government to maintain control over such an important and ambitious scheme.

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This represents an extra £102m on top of £340 of funding announced in July.

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He said “My first instruction as Prime Minister was to end rough sleeping. And it’s why today we’re getting started with a national drive to get everyone in for Christmas.”

Rough Sleeping Context

The number of rough sleepers has more than doubled since 2010 with 2025 hitting the highest number since the Ministry of Housing, Communities & Local Government Rough Sleeping Snapshot began.

Significantly fewer people were sleeping rough during the pandemic as the Government ensured that everyone was offered a bed as part of the “Everyone In” efforts to stem to the transmission of Covid-19.

Homelessness charity Shelter report that 37,000 people were helped by the Government’s efforts up to August 2021.

According to the snapshot in 2025, 86% of rough sleepers are 26 and over, 82% are men and 65% are British. These percentages hold broadly steady over the years despite significant increases in the total number of rough sleepers.

When in February, the 2025 snapshot was released however Chief Executive of Crisis, a homelessness charity, Matt Downie, said “Today’s figures paint a bleak picture of the state of the nation. People are being forced to sleep on the streets at unprecedented levels, exposed to danger and violence. Thousands more people are then hidden from the official statistics, particularly women forced to sleep rough.” So the situation could be worse than the snapshot shows.

Prime Minister’s Pledge

On entering Downing Street last month, Burnham’s first pledge was to end rough sleeping. In July he pledged £340m saying This is something a government can fix if it chooses to. Today, I’m choosing to.”

That announcement said that local leaders would lead the delivery of a programme using local-led approaches that have helped tackle rough sleeping.

In today’s pledge, Housing Secretary Angela Rayner said Working alongside councils, mayors and charities, we’re backing local areas to tackle rough sleeping at its roots, giving people the security, dignity and opportunity they deserve, and restoring hope to those who have been let down for far too long.”

The Government is currently confirming project allocations for this money, which is funded from Ministry of Housing, Communities & Local Government Rough unallocated funds.

The funding will include provision for over 1,000 settled homes over the next three years.

Areas in England with the worst rough sleeping problems will be receiving the most funding.

£8.4 million of the new funding is going specifically to the Ending Homelessness in Communities Fund which funds small to medium sized voluntary, community and faith sector charities.

Final thought

One month into Burnham’s tenure, it’s unclear where the line between communications and governing strategies is.

Is this a re-announcement or the next step in fulfilling a pledge, or both?

Is this the sign of a Government committed to maintaining momentum on it’s pledges or committed to maintaining momentum in announcements? Or both?

Which side of the line the public perceives the Burnham project to be on will be a defining question of his premiership.

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Photo Credit: Simon Dawson / No 10 Downing Street

Alan Milburn, former cabinet minister and chair of the Social Mobility Commission has called for specialist internships for young people with special educational needs and disabilities (SEND). He wants these to be put on “turbocharge” to fix the Not in Education, Employment or Training (NEETs) crisis among young people.

Social Mobility Commission

The number of 16-24 year olds that are NEET is now over a million according to the ONS, a problem that Milburn’s Social Mobility Commission has been tasked with finding solutions to.

Their initial 200 page report  set out the problems faced by young people, with a further report later this year setting out recommendations to Government as to how to alleviate the NEET problem.

Milburn previously states that the NEET problem has been decades in the making. Citing declines over the last decade in low and medium skilled jobs, Saturday jobs, roles in hospitality, apprenticeship starts and entry level jobs he paints a bleak picture for young people looking for work. All this before any impact from the “AI revolution” is felt.

Special Needs Internships

The Social Mobility Commission will recommend expanding supported internships for 16-24 year olds with Education, Health and Care Plans (EHCPs).

Employers with participating schemes include the NHS, Asda and Amazon.

A evaluation conducted by the Department of Education concluded that 48% of supported interns entered paid work with some providers achieving rates of 70%.

Currently there around 4,500 supported internships in England. Milburn pointed out that due to a lack of capacity, access to these internships varies between regions. He said:

“Supported internships have got such an effective track record. With the best ones around 70% of the people on them end up in paid employment.”

“In my view we have to turbocharge support – and at the moment the system is not set up to do that.”

Support from Primary School

Milburn also said that his review will consider intervention as early as in Primary School, to identify children at risk of becoming NEET when they leave the education system.

“The warning signs are there from a very early, early age. You know, frankly from preschool.”

“Primary schools should be identifying children who are at risk of being Neet.”

He did not speculate how a major expansion of supported internships should be funded.

His final recommendations are expected in autumn 2026.

Final Thought

Bridging the gap between education and work and establishing habits that could last young people a lifetime are at the heart of these proposals.

Given the success of some schemes supporting special needs internships, and the current paltry number of spaces (4,500) available for the 1 million NEETs, they seem like a good investment for a Government eager to decrease youth unemployment and the welfare bill.

However, as with any expansion it will be essential to maintain quality. It’s clear that these schemes have variable success at getting NEETs into immediate employment and although that is not the only metric of success, any Chancellor investing money in these schemes will want to see it reflected in the welfare bill.

The successes of these schemes also bring to mind the ‘nudge theory’ ideas of the early Cameron term. Setting sensible defaults, and entrenching useful habits rather than reinforcing the cliff edge ending to structured education could be something that Government can, and would be good at supporting.

Only time will tell whether it will reduce youth unemployment, or reduce it enough to please the electorate.

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As temperatures rise and populations age, climate change is increasingly becoming a health and public services challenge as much as an environmental one.

New work presented by the Government Actuary’s Department (GAD), alongside international research examining mortality across more than 550 European regions, is drawing attention to the complex relationship between extreme weather, ageing and health.

At an international webinar on climate change, ageing and health, experts brought together evidence from the UK, Europe, Africa and Bangladesh to examine how rising temperatures and environmental disruption could affect mortality, healthcare systems and older populations.

The discussion comes as the UK experiences another period of extreme summer temperatures, increasing scrutiny of whether the NHS and wider public services are sufficiently prepared for climate-related health pressures.

Climate Change as a ‘Compounding Risk’

Rather than looking solely at deaths directly attributed to heatwaves, the Government Actuary’s Department is examining climate change as a “compounding risk”.

Georgina Bedenham, Head of Climate and Disaster Risk at GAD, outlined work to develop a systems map showing how climate hazards could ultimately influence mortality in the UK.

The model considers direct pressures including extreme heat, flooding, deteriorating air quality, vector-borne disease and food and water safety.

But it also examines less obvious pathways through which climate change could affect health, including infrastructure strain, economic disruption, supply-chain pressures and population displacement.

The significance of the approach is that climate-related mortality may not always follow a simple pathway from extreme weather to ill health.

Flooding, for example, can damage homes and healthcare infrastructure, interrupt transport, prevent people from accessing services and cause longer-term financial and mental health consequences.

Similarly, wider economic disruption can affect employment, incomes, housing and ultimately the resources available for healthcare and other public services.

GAD is now expected to finalise and publish its systems map, while considering its implications for actuarial analysis and the measures that could improve resilience..

Extreme Heat and Mortality Across Europe

Alongside the UK work, Professor Torsten Kleinow, Director of the Research Centre for Longevity Risk at the University of Amsterdam, presented research examining the relationship between environmental conditions and short-term mortality across Europe.

The analysis covers more than 550 regions across 20 European countries, comparing weekly mortality against region-specific seasonal expectations.

Among the environmental factors studied, temperature-related variables emerged as the strongest predictors of short-term mortality variation.

Weeks containing several unusually hot days were associated with particularly pronounced increases in mortality, with significant geographical differences across Europe.

Researchers also modelled increasingly severe temperature anomalies, including scenarios in which average daily minimum and maximum temperatures were approximately 12°C above normal.

The findings raise an important issue for health planning: national averages can disguise substantial local differences in vulnerability.

An ageing population, housing quality, deprivation, existing health conditions, local infrastructure and access to healthcare can all influence the consequences of the same extreme weather event.

Why an Ageing Population Changes the Equation

Older people can be particularly vulnerable to extreme heat and climate-related disruption, but the international discussion also challenged the idea that age alone determines vulnerability.

Someone with good health, appropriate housing, transport and strong social networks may be considerably more resilient than another person of the same age living alone, experiencing poor health or struggling to access services.

This means climate-health planning increasingly needs to consider the interaction between age, health, deprivation, housing, geography, infrastructure and social isolation.

Research presented by Professor Liat Ayalon of Bar-Ilan University demonstrated how those pressures can interact.

Her research into the experiences of older people in Togo found communities facing increasingly unpredictable rainfall, severe heat, flooding, deteriorating agricultural conditions and food insecurity.

Approximately 46.6 per cent of participants rated their physical health as poor, while 45 per cent described their mental health as fair or poor.

The research also highlighted an often overlooked consequence of climate-related migration.

Moving away from an environmentally vulnerable area did not necessarily remove vulnerability. Older people could instead lose established family relationships, community networks and informal care arrangements while continuing to experience food and economic insecurity.

Climate resilience, the discussion suggested, is therefore not simply about physical infrastructure. Social networks and community support can themselves act as important forms of resilience.

From Winter Pressures to Summer Pressures?

For the UK, the findings raise questions about how the NHS prepares for increasingly extreme summers.

Health services have traditionally focused significant planning and resources on winter pressures, when respiratory illness, seasonal disease and cold weather increase demand.

But more frequent periods of extreme heat could create a parallel challenge.

Heat can exacerbate cardiovascular and respiratory conditions, increase dehydration and place additional pressure on people already living with complex health conditions.

Climate events can simultaneously affect the infrastructure upon which healthcare depends, from transport and buildings to energy and supply chains.

That creates the potential for increased demand to occur at precisely the moment that parts of the health system are themselves experiencing disruption.

The challenge is therefore broader than simply responding to individual heatwaves.

A New Prevention Challenge for Government

The Government Actuary’s Department’s systems approach also raises a wider question about how government assesses preventative investment.

If climate change affects health through housing, infrastructure, transport, economic security and community resilience, spending in one area could potentially reduce costs elsewhere.

Better housing may reduce heat-related health risks. More resilient infrastructure could maintain access to healthcare during extreme weather. Stronger community networks could help identify vulnerable residents before they require emergency intervention.

The benefits of climate adaptation could consequently be spread across the NHS, social care, local government and the wider economy rather than sitting neatly within the budget of the department making the initial investment.

That creates a challenge for conventional departmental spending decisions, but also an opportunity to consider climate resilience through a longer-term prevention and public-service productivity lens.

Preparing for a Hotter, Older Britain

The UK’s demographic and environmental trajectories are increasingly converging.

The population is ageing while periods of extreme heat are expected to become more frequent and intense. At the same time, the NHS and social care system are already managing rising demand from people living longer with multiple conditions.

The emerging evidence suggests climate resilience will therefore need to become a more prominent part of health and care planning.

The question for policymakers is no longer simply how the UK responds to individual episodes of extreme weather.

It is how the NHS, local government, housing, infrastructure and wider public services are redesigned for a country that is likely to be both hotter and older in the decades ahead.

This is in response to the latest in a series of heatwaves which have defined the British summer.

Yet despite these unprecedentedly high temperatures many politicians and journalists continue to lobby for an end to the government’s pursuit of a Net Zero energy sector.

The Minister of State for Energy Michael Shanks says it’s “unbelievable that there could still be people who right now look at what’s happening to fossil fuel markets, and say let’s just build more gas.”

Heatwave: How Hot Actually Is It?

Met Office data suggests that 2026 is on course to be the hottest recorded summer in British history, beating the record which was set only last year.

The average UK temperature between June 1st and August 10th this year was 16.48°C. This is 0.36°C higher than the average for last summer (June 1st to August 31st), and 0.78°C higher than the average temperature during the legendary summer of 1976.

In addition to this, 2026 has already seen more days over 30°C than any other year in British history and the first time the 35°C barrier has been broken in four different calendar months (May, June, July, and August).

Another clear indication of climate change is this summer’s extremely low rainfall. England and Wales experienced their driest July in recorded history, with over two thirds of England currently experiencing a drought.

As well as damaging British wildlife, persistent drought risks causing water shortages, and leaving people without vital resources.

What is the Government Doing?

The link between greenhouse gas emissions and rising global temperatures has long been known.

While this isn’t perfectly correlated with the UK’s weather conditions, higher average global temperatures increase the risk of abnormally warm and dry conditions throughout Northern Europe, as we have seen in the past two years.

Keir Starmer’s Labour government promised a “phased and responsible” transition away from fossil fuels. This forms part of the government’s target of reaching a state of Net Zero emissions (where all greenhouse gas emissions are offset by other pro-environmental activities) by 2050.

The former Prime Minister also oversaw the passing of the Great British Energy Act in May 2025. This established the publicly owned company Great British Energy with the aim of accelerating investment in renewable energy production.

Despite this, the House of Commons’ Climate Change Committee said that the government was “not moving fast enough to reduce greenhouse gas emissions” in their June 2026 report.

“Energy policy doesn’t sit in isolation from wider economic and industrial policy” Michael Shanks told Dr Simon Evans, Deputy Editor and Senior Policy Editor at specialist climate-change publication Carbon Brief.

View Politics UK’s In Conversation Here

“When we came in we obviously moved really quickly forward on the clean power mission” Shanks said when asked about factors delaying the transition to Net Zero.

“But every pound of public spending that is spent on building energy infrastructure should result in investment in communities.” Shanks added, implying that the Net Zero objective is being balanced against the government’s desires for economic growth, and investment in traditionally neglected areas.

The Criticisms of Net Zero

Research by Carbon Brief found that 63 editorials calling for the increased extraction of oil from the North Sea basin had been published between January and June this year. This is more than double than the 30 editorials calling for the same thing published throughout 2025.

A study by the Guardian also found that 72% of major newspapers’ coverage of the May and June heatwaves failed to mention climate change.

Both of these suggest there is an institutional unwillingness in the British press to acknowledge the clear link between energy policy, and the record-breaking temperatures the UK is currently experiencing.

The criticism of the government’s Net Zero policies has been particularly harsh.

The Times described pursuing Net Zero as “masochistic”, while The Sun suggested it could lead to a “full-blown energy crisis”. Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch has also likened Ed Miliband to a “Nigerian military dictator” for his support of Net Zero policies while Secretary of State for Energy Security and Net Zero under Starmer.

Why We Can’t Rely on Oil

The Sun has claimed that if the government diverted Net Zero funding into drilling for oil in the North Sea basin, then the UK “might just have the cheapest electricity in the world”.

This fails to acknowledge that North Sea oil is not a public resource, and would therefore have to be purchased from private companies. This would most likely be at a similar market price to the one the UK currently pays when importing oil from nations such as Norway.

Another flaw in this strategy is the fact the North Sea is considered a “mature basin”, with roughly 90% of its oil already having been extracted, and production currently only 20% as high as it was in 1999.

The efficiency of non-renewable energy sources can also be damaged by the extreme heat which is becoming increasingly common.

Electric Insights, which monitor the proportion of energy UK consumers draw from different sources, have estimated that gas power stations lose 7% of their efficiency, and 13% of their capacity, when temperatures exceed 40°C.

In contrast, using a mix of renewable sources can improve the energy sector’s resilience to a range of different conditions.

“Heatwaves often bring still, but clear conditions” explains Chris Rosslowe, a senior energy analyst for Europe at Ember Energy, “but clear conditions highlight the benefit of wind and solar as a duo.”

The North Sea is also home to 14 wind farms, which, when combined with solar farms, can produce sustainable energy for far longer than a finite supply of North Sea Oil.

Final Thought

Net Zero is absolutely necessary to slowing the advancement of climate change, and protecting our current way of life.

Global problems require global solutions however, and it is tempting to rely on other nations to make the changes necessary to reduce global greenhouse emissions, while the UK prioritises short-term profitability.

The UK, as one of the world’s most advanced countries, and the first to industrialise, does however have a moral and logistical obligation to lead the way on climate issues.

A transition to renewable energy is inevitable, with or without a specific Net Zero target.

British newspapers must acknowledge the role of climate change in their reporting of extreme weather events, and end their obsession with North Sea oil, if they are going to remain relevant.

You can still get a copy of our new edition of ChamberUK. Our parliamentary journal.

You can buy your copy here.

Photo Credit: Sinousxl on Pixabay

The indicative ballot saw 90% of voters say they would be in favour of strike action, if the scheme was introduced in October, as currently planned.

Napo haven’t revealed the number of members who took part in the vote, but say that a “significant majority” of those eligible to vote had done so. This suggests strike action could be declared if a statutory ballot was held.

“The ballot wasn’t about membership being too busy” said Napo’s National Chair Ben Cockburn. “It was professionals warning they cannot protect the public properly when there are not enough people to do the work.”

The Delays to Early Release

This ballot is the latest in a series of obstacles which threaten to prevent the introduction of the early release scheme across British prisons.

These measures would see roughly 5,000 offenders released from British prisons in October, as a means of reducing overcrowding in prisons.

Probation officers would then need to supervise the newly released prisoners for the remainder of their sentence, including helping them find housing and employment.

HM Chief Inspector of Probation Martin Jones is head of the statutory board tasked by the Ministry of Justice with independently inspecting probation and youth justice services.

Jones has said that he’s “not fully confident that the probation system will be able to cope with this massive work”. He worries that the early release scheme could lead to “a serious sexual or violent offence or even murder” being committed.

The inspectorate estimates that probation officers are already managing 258,000 newly released prisoners nationally, which is 8% more than two years ago.

The government has also faced criticism from the police force itself.

On Tuesday, 50 serving police chiefs signed a letter calling on Prime Minister Andy Burnham to re-consider certain details of the early release scheme. This included giving greater consideration to how the early release of some prisoners would affect the survivors of their crimes.

“Families across the country are now facing the distress of learning that offenders may be released earlier than they understood when the sentence was passed.” The letter said.

Probation Officer Strike? How Did We Get Here?

The early release scheme was a key part of the Sentencing Act, which was passed by former Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s government in January this year.

The Act reduced the minimum duration most prisoners must spend in prison from half of their sentence to one third. The minimum prison time for those who committed sexual or violent offences was also reduced from two thirds of their sentence to half.

This was due to come into force in September, but was delayed until October by Burnham to allow for further reviews of the scheme to be held.

This includes taking measures to prevent the release of two people who were jailed in 2020 for their role in the death of PC Andrew Harper in August 2019.

Burnham said on Tuesday that he was “increasingly confident” there was a legal mechanism to prevent the release of Jessie Cole and Albert Bowers from prison.

The logic behind the early release scheme was that it would reduce overcrowding in UK prisons.

A parliamentary report from March this year suggests that 87,342 people were being held in prisons in England and Wales in 2024.

This would be the largest prison population in the country’s history, and roughly 2,000 people lower than the government’s own estimates for England and Wales’ maximum prison capacity.

The parliamentary report forecasted future growth in the prison population, meaning that maximum capacity may have already been reached in some parts of the country.

The Situation Facing Probation Officers

The Ministry of Justice Said that it was “disappointed” by the result of Napo’s indicative ballot.

It acknowledges however that the probation system currently operates with a shortage of staff.

There were 5,554 Full Time Equivalent probation officers working in the UK in March, over 1,500 fewer than the Ministry of Justice’s target of 7,110.

Ben Cockburn has warned of “devastating” consequences “if excessive workload prevent decisions being made properly” by Probation officers.

He also said that a statutory ballot would be Napo’s next step if ministers fail to take “meaningful action on excessive workloads.”

The ministry has however announced that it exceeded its recruitment target for last year, with 1,389 trainee probation officers starting in new roles.

A spokesperson said the ministry is committed to “making sure the Probation Service has the resource it needs to keep dangerous offenders under closer surveillance than ever before.”

Final Thought

The overcrowding of British prisons is a problem that long proceeds either the current or previous Prime Ministers’ times in office.

The early release scheme will likely be an effective short-term solution to that immediate problem, but undeniably risks higher rates of re-offending.

It is therefore imperative that the Ministry of Justice finds a means of preventing a Napo strike as soon as possible.

While individual cases, such as that of those involved in the death of PC Andrew Harper, are deeply emotive and expose issues with the early release scheme, they should not dominate the debate on wider issues.

Early release is not a long-term solution, but may be a necessary short-term step, which can only be achieved with the co-operation of probation officers.

As summer comes to and end and intractable problems start to pile up, we may be seeing the end of Burnham’s honeymoon period as he starts to make the tough decisions.

You can still get a copy of our new edition of ChamberUK. Our parliamentary journal.

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These include giving local councils increased powers to prevent the opening of vape shops, and adult gaming centres.

“For many people, the high streets they grew up with have become unrecognisable” Burnham told reporters.

Opposition parties have broadly supported the plans, but believe the government should also reduce business rates in order to support small businesses.

Increased Powers for Councils

The newly announced plans are the latest in a series of devolution measures, policies which give increased powers to local government, announced by Andy Burnham since he became Prime Minister last month.

Vape shops will now need express permission from their local council before they are permitted to start trading. It will also become illegal for any shop selling vapes to describe themselves as a general convenience store, in order to avoid the new laws.

Shops found to be breaking these laws and selling tobacco illegally could now be closed for up to 12 months.

On top of this, the new plans would see the removal of the “aim to permit” rule, that was introduced by the 2005 Gambling Act.

Under “aim to permit” councils were obliged to allow businesses such as betting shops and adult gaming centres to open, if they met all other requirements.

Instead adult gaming centres will require specific planning permission before opening.

Burnham hopes that by providing councils with greater powers to prevent vape shops and gambling opening, the government will enable other shops to fill their places.

When announcing the new laws, the Prime Minister said that, “The rise of vape shops, betting shops and rogue operators have replaced the shops, services and community spaces that people are crying out for.”

Does Britain Have a Vape Shop Problem?

A report by the public health charity Action on Smoking and Health (ASH) published a report on the use of vapes across Britain last month.

ASH found that roughly 10% of British adults vaped. This was a similar level to what had been estimated by the 2024 survey, but roughly six times higher than what ASH’s first survey had estimated in 2012.

More concerningly, the report found that 7.8% of British adults vaped daily, compared to only 4.5% in 2020.

The use of disposable vapes, the type most commonly purchased from vape shops, and potentially the most environmentally damaging, does appear to have peaked in 2023 however.

One of the most common justifications of the loose regulation of the vape shop industry, is that vaping acts as a less harmful substitute for other tobacco products such as cigarettes.

ASH’s data shows a rough correlation between the rise of vaping across Britain, and a decline in the proportion adults smoking. This is not a perfect correlation however, with ASH estimating that roughly 1.8 million British adults both vaped and smoked regularly.

Will This Save Britain’s High Streets? (And Does it Need To?)

Concerns about the decline of Britain’s high streets have been a political talking point since the 1970s, when many local authorities began approving out-of-town shopping centres.

This exaggerated the impacts of the “Beeching Axe” railway closures of the 1960s, which restricted rail access to many town centres.

In more recent times, high street stores have had to compete with the rise of online shopping, as new technology has reduced the cost of importing retail goods.

The opposition believe that the only way to reverse this perceived gradual decline is by reducing business rates, a tax paid by the owners of non-domestic properties.

“Unless the government takes steps to support high streets and hard-working businesses, Labour’s increases in planning regulation will just mean more empty and boarded up shops” said the Shadow Communities Secretary James Cleverly, in response to Burnham’s announcement.

Both the Liberal Democrats’ home affairs spokesperson Max Wilkinson and Reform UK’s economy spokesperson Robert Jenrick also called for a complete re-design of the business rates system.

Despite the broad agreement among the major parties that Britain’s high streets need government intervention in order to remain relevant, the data doesn’t necessarily support this.

The Office for National Statistics estimated in March that while employment in the high street retail sector had shrunk by almost 20% since 2015, employment in all other high street sectors had risen.

This suggests that while the role of high streets is shifting from being primarily retail based to instead being centred around services such as accommodation and catering, they are not necessarily experiencing a long-term decline.

Final Thought

The rise of vape shops as smoking rates have fallen is a textbook example of the law of unintended consequences.

Burnham hopes to address this by restricting access to vapes, but will only succeed if councils are given the resources necessary to enforce closure orders on vape shops, and regulate adult gaming centres.

Vape shops are not the primary cause of the decline of Britain’s high streets, and restricting them will not return Britain’s town centres to how they were 60 years ago.

That isn’t necessarily as much of an issue as the major parties seem to believe however. The data proves that, if people have the necessary disposable income, they will use the high streets.

These policies should therefore be judged on their social, rather than their economic impact.

You can still get a copy of our new edition of ChamberUK. Our parliamentary journal.

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Photo Credit: Sarahjohnson1 from Pixabay

The high values council tax surcharge, known as the “mansion tax” would see those who own homes worth over £2million pay an additional levy on top of existing council tax charges.

The money raised would go directly to central government, with the measures forecast to raise £430million each year.

The leaders of Kensington and Chelsea, Wandsworth, Richmond upon Thames, and Westminster Councils told Chancellor John Healey that “A home is the centre of family life, not an untapped tax stream”. Before saying that “It is simply wrong to assume everyone living in these homes is wealthy.”

What Is the Mansion Tax?

The high value council tax surcharge was first announced by former Chancellor Rachel Reeves in her November 2025 budget, and is scheduled to come into force in April 2028. The Treasury say that it was designed with the aim of tackling “a long-standing unfairness in our country”.

The scheme would divide homes worth over £2million into four bands, with the owners of the highest value homes paying the highest annual surcharges.

HMRC have said they will conduct a “targeted valuation” of homes before the tax is implemented. Analysis from estate agents Benham and Reeves estimates that roughly 84,000 homes in Greater London alone would be subject to the mansion tax, with annual payments ranging between £2,500 and £7,500.

Unlike the existing council tax system, which was introduced in 1991, none of the money raised would go directly to councils themselves. The Treasury has however said that “local authorities will be fully compensated for the additional costs of administering this new tax.”

Why Are Councils Objecting?

The four councils believe that deciding basing a greater portion of an individual’s tax burden on their house price will disproportionately target older people.

“This is not a tax targeted at the very wealthy” said Elizabeth Campbell, the Conservative Leader of Kensington and Chelsea Council. “It lacks nuance, and will hit pensioners, families, and long-standing residents whose homes have risen in value while their incomes have not.”

The letter claimed that the four boroughs would provide roughly £270million in revenue between them each year, over 60% of the Treasury’s estimated national total.

“This is an unfair attack of well-run councils” said the leader of Wandsworth Council Robert Morris (Conservative), who said that “Wandsworth residents (will be) hammered to pay for those elsewhere”.

Gareth Roberts, the Liberal Democrat leader of Richmond Council believes that the government are “seeing Richmond residents as cash cows that they can milk to fix funding gaps elsewhere in the country. Irrespective of whether they can afford to pay this new tax”.

Westminster City Council’s leader Paul Swaddle also raised concerns about whether this tax would be affordable for residents.

He said that high value homes “do not always always translate into high household incomes”, and that the tax “risks creating unfair outcomes for residents whose property value does not reflect their ability to pay.”

The leaders’ joint letter said that “It is simply wrong to assume that everyone living in these homes is wealthy. Many are not, and under this proposal, some will be forced to sell the family home simply to meet this tax.”

Why Is the Mansion Tax Being Introduced?

When announcing the mansion tax, Rachel Reeves declared that the estimated £430million of revenue would be used to support funding for local services.

She may also have hoped that by targeting the owners of the country’s most valuable homes, the tax could have a progressive impact on Britain’s wealth distribution.

By specifically building the system around house prices, the tax will disproportionately target London and the South East. This is due to these areas experiencing a faster rise in house prices compared to the rest of the country, since the current council tax bands were introduced in 1991.

A group of 13 Labour MPs wrote to Reeves the month before the budget to propose the abolition of the existing council tax system.

They described it as “outdated, deeply regressive, and increasingly indefensible.”

While the mansion tax won’t meet their demands for an entirely new council tax system, it will ensure fewer houses are taxed based on their valuation from 35 years ago.

It will also offer the new Chancellor John Healey a means of raising revenue without breaking any of Labour’s 2024 manifesto pledges not to raise income tax, VAT, or national insurance.

It is unknown how the mansion tax could affect the housing market, with new Prime Minister Andy Burnham saying that ending rough sleeping was one of his key priorities, shortly after entering government.

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Photo Credit: Chbec

Miles Bennington

Editor – Chamber UK

Today, after a smashing week of defending the rights of former Neo-Nazis to run as Conservative candidates, Kemi Badenoch, leader of the Conservative Party, has unveiled her latest desperate attempt to wrest voters back from Reform UK. The plan is to throw refugees, foreign nationals with settled status and people with a humanitarian visas (such as Ukrainians, Hong Kongers and Afghans who helped our forces during the war in Afghanistan) out of social housing. They also propose to exclude British children that have two foreign parents from social house. Slow claps all round.

This is a perfect example of the type of policy that will do the Conservatives absolutely no favours. It’s impractical, cruel and unserious, yes, but on the other hand, it is also not nearly as fun as Reform’s proposal to use the Royal Navy to stop small boats. This equally stupid policy at least let’s you say that this will be “the largest military operation” in the Channel “since World War II” as Nigel put it, presumably to the tune of Jerusalem.

Semi-Kemi

This policy has all the hallmarks of a Reform policy, with none of the advantages. It’s an awful halfway house.

Firstly, it targets people that most Brits have at least some affection for. Ukrainians fleeing war, Hong Konger’s fleeing authoritarianism, Afghans that risked their lives helping our soldiers, oh and children. Even in immigration discourse, this is punching down.

Secondly, it has all the problems of a Reform Policy. There’s a good chance it would violate the ECHR and Refugee Convention, which would lead to huge legal battles and would likely require that the UK become a pariah among western democracies, actively smashing up a rules-based order which otherwise forms the foundation of our foreign policy. This will prompt tepid resistance from the damp end of the Tory party and a further exodus of comfortable voters from the Tory ranks.

Thirdly, it will have to be enforced, which will require some sort of ICE-style force, being filmed making children homeless. As the Trump administration continues to arm thugs and let them shoot Americans on the street, this is probably not a spectre you want to raise to win back seats from the Liberal Sodding Democrats.

Fourthly, it carves out EU citizens with settled status. Adding a delicious layer of fudge that I am sure Reform UK and Restore Britain will use to argue that they can go further.

Maybe there is someone out there that can out-Nigel Nigel. But it ain’t Kemi.

Remember Elections?

Despite unearned smugness, the Tories are in dire straits. As Christian Calgie asked in Politics UK’s recent In Conversation with Kemi, “You and your team seem pretty chuffed at the moment. To put it bluntly… Why?” They are stuck between trying to win votes from Labour and the LibDems or Reform and Restore.

The vast, vast, vast majority of seats the Conservatives will be targeting at the next election are currently held by Labour or the LibDems. So every vote they can win from them is worth double.

Any votes drifting to Reform however will make many gains, and even holding onto seats almost impossible.

Since 2024, a multiparty system has emerged in the UK that threatens coalition parties such as the Conservatives, Labour and Liberal Democrats. They struggle to compete for clarity of offering (and therefore social media reach) with parties controlled by a single charismatic leader.  They also suffer from containing people with experience of Government in them, so they are less adept at creating popular nonsense policies than their newer competitors.

In this situation the best course for the Conservative Party, would be to compromise with Liberal Democrat voters, trust that Labour will alienate some of their 2024 vote and hold the line as a more credible alternative to Labour than Reform. This strategy both plays to Conservative strengths and Reform’s weaknesses. Had the Tories chosen say, Jeremy Hunt as leader in 2024, he would likely now be hoovering up money from former Reform donors who think Labour is a more pressing threat to their finances than Count Binface.

Instead, Olukemi Olufunto Adegoke “Kemi” Badenoch, has decided that she is best placed to win a ‘kick foreigners’ contest with Nigel Farage and Rupert Lowe.

Goodluck. With That.

Kemi’s Future

Hear me out. I have no personal insights into Kemi’s plans so this is all conjecture; but is it possible she has already written the Conservative Party off and is now just milking her leadership for all the attention it can create for her?

While the current electoral strategy makes no sense for the Conservative Party, it would make a lot of sense as a launchpad for a career in right wing punditry, perhaps playing the respected foreign leader for an American audience. Is it possible that it’s not Kemi’s brain that’s been pickled on X but her business model? At least that would make this strategy make sense.

Alternatively, maybe she is just sinking into a warm bath of feelgood nonsense for the right-wing of the Conservative Party. Taking on the “no enemies to the right” mantra of American politics while celebrating the absence of bad headlines. Maybe she hasn’t noticed that an absence of bad headlines has coincided with the absence of any headlines at all… Perhaps, the Conservatives are assuming a comfortable irrelevance more familiar to Liberal Democrats.

That would be mad. Third place in the next General Election will spell death for the Conservatives. They will lose their place as the default home of funding, press attention and votes for those who want lower taxes. They will be a broad-church party with no congregation. All the careerists and hangers-on will leave.

Kemi seems to be trying to be the most “right wing” party in UK politics. But remaining the default right wing option in UK politics what the Conservatives should be playing for at the next General Election. She is aiming for the wrong target.

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Photo Credit:  Simon Dawson / No 10 Downing Street