The most recent general election revealed a significant truth about the Right in British politics: division comes with a cost. With Nigel Farage’s Reform UK emerging, the Conservative voting block is being splintered, thus assisting Labour in securing a supermajority. This dynamic also brings up important questions regarding the future of the Right and its ability to pose an adequate opposition to the Labour party rule.
Past Lessons, Present Realities
In 2019, Nigel Farage’s decision not to field Brexit Party candidates in Conservative-held constituencies helped Boris Johnson achieve a majority. This year, such a pact was sorely lacking. Reform UK’s 14.3% share, which won it only 5 seats, cost the Tories 80. This split allowed Labour to win 411 seats turning what could have been a modest 48-seat majority into a record-breaking 172-seat win.
Polls commissioned during the campaign show that 36% of Reform voters would have voted for the Conservatives had Farage’s party not stood, while 26% would have simply not voted. Reform splitting the vote gave Labour victories in some key constituencies, such as Chelsea and Fulham, where they won by a narrow 0.3% margin.
Despite Labour’s strong position in Parliament, their voters are losing faith. As it stands Starmer sits at a -24% favourability with only 25% having a positive view of him. Even Labour supporters feel betrayed by Starmer as his popularity has dropped from 87% to just 57%. Active Labour supporters appear hesitant to rally behind him, frustrated by ongoing disarray.
According to a Ipsos poll, 61% of Britons are unhappy with Keir Starmer’s performance. The poll also revealed that 70% of people are not satisfied with the government overall. Two-thirds of the population (65%) believe that the economy will worsen during the next year, which is the lowest percentage since the end of 2022.
The Price of Division
Kemi Badenoch, the new face of the Tory party, attacks against the odds. Her net approval rating of -5% is better than the last one received by Rishi Sunak (-22%) but not as good as the starting figures of Boris Johnson. Of 2019 Tory voters, 46% want to vote for her, but say she has not yet brought cohesion to the party.
In order to perform effectively against Labour, the Right needs to be able to search for a unifying force. Without one there is a very real risk of further decline. The rise in the Reform party is due to a genuine dissatisfaction with the Conservatives, but it also shows the danger of vote splitting.
The Conservatives have an opportunity because of the discontent among voters with Labour. However, Labour can still hold firm if a strong leader is not found to unite Reform and the Conservatives.
The figures are straight forward – a divided right is weak. As Labour nears its big electoral test under Starmer at May’s local elections, the question remains, how will the right pull itself together to go through this rough terrain and carve out Britain’s political future?
