Miles Bennington
Editor – Chamber UKToday, after a smashing week of defending the rights of former Neo-Nazis to run as Conservative candidates, Kemi Badenoch, leader of the Conservative Party, has unveiled her latest desperate attempt to wrest voters back from Reform UK. The plan is to throw refugees, foreign nationals with settled status and people with a humanitarian visas (such as Ukrainians, Hong Kongers and Afghans who helped our forces during the war in Afghanistan) out of social housing. They also propose to exclude British children that have two foreign parents from social house. Slow claps all round.
This is a perfect example of the type of policy that will do the Conservatives absolutely no favours. It’s impractical, cruel and unserious, yes, but on the other hand, it is also not nearly as fun as Reform’s proposal to use the Royal Navy to stop small boats. This equally stupid policy at least let’s you say that this will be “the largest military operation” in the Channel “since World War II” as Nigel put it, presumably to the tune of Jerusalem.
Semi-Kemi
This policy has all the hallmarks of a Reform policy, with none of the advantages. It’s an awful halfway house.
Firstly, it targets people that most Brits have at least some affection for. Ukrainians fleeing war, Hong Konger’s fleeing authoritarianism, Afghans that risked their lives helping our soldiers, oh and children. Even in immigration discourse, this is punching down.
Secondly, it has all the problems of a Reform Policy. There’s a good chance it would violate the ECHR and Refugee Convention, which would lead to huge legal battles and would likely require that the UK become a pariah among western democracies, actively smashing up a rules-based order which otherwise forms the foundation of our foreign policy. This will prompt tepid resistance from the damp end of the Tory party and a further exodus of comfortable voters from the Tory ranks.
Thirdly, it will have to be enforced, which will require some sort of ICE-style force, being filmed making children homeless. As the Trump administration continues to arm thugs and let them shoot Americans on the street, this is probably not a spectre you want to raise to win back seats from the Liberal Sodding Democrats.
Fourthly, it carves out EU citizens with settled status. Adding a delicious layer of fudge that I am sure Reform UK and Restore Britain will use to argue that they can go further.
Maybe there is someone out there that can out-Nigel Nigel. But it ain’t Kemi.
Remember Elections?
Despite unearned smugness, the Tories are in dire straits. As Christian Calgie asked in Politics UK’s recent In Conversation with Kemi, “You and your team seem pretty chuffed at the moment. To put it bluntly… Why?” They are stuck between trying to win votes from Labour and the LibDems or Reform and Restore.
The vast, vast, vast majority of seats the Conservatives will be targeting at the next election are currently held by Labour or the LibDems. So every vote they can win from them is worth double.
Any votes drifting to Reform however will make many gains, and even holding onto seats almost impossible.
Since 2024, a multiparty system has emerged in the UK that threatens coalition parties such as the Conservatives, Labour and Liberal Democrats. They struggle to compete for clarity of offering (and therefore social media reach) with parties controlled by a single charismatic leader. They also suffer from containing people with experience of Government in them, so they are less adept at creating popular nonsense policies than their newer competitors.
In this situation the best course for the Conservative Party, would be to compromise with Liberal Democrat voters, trust that Labour will alienate some of their 2024 vote and hold the line as a more credible alternative to Labour than Reform. This strategy both plays to Conservative strengths and Reform’s weaknesses. Had the Tories chosen say, Jeremy Hunt as leader in 2024, he would likely now be hoovering up money from former Reform donors who think Labour is a more pressing threat to their finances than Count Binface.
Instead, Olukemi Olufunto Adegoke “Kemi” Badenoch, has decided that she is best placed to win a ‘kick foreigners’ contest with Nigel Farage and Rupert Lowe.
Goodluck. With That.
Kemi’s Future
Hear me out. I have no personal insights into Kemi’s plans so this is all conjecture; but is it possible she has already written the Conservative Party off and is now just milking her leadership for all the attention it can create for her?
While the current electoral strategy makes no sense for the Conservative Party, it would make a lot of sense as a launchpad for a career in right wing punditry, perhaps playing the respected foreign leader for an American audience. Is it possible that it’s not Kemi’s brain that’s been pickled on X but her business model? At least that would make this strategy make sense.
Alternatively, maybe she is just sinking into a warm bath of feelgood nonsense for the right-wing of the Conservative Party. Taking on the “no enemies to the right” mantra of American politics while celebrating the absence of bad headlines. Maybe she hasn’t noticed that an absence of bad headlines has coincided with the absence of any headlines at all… Perhaps, the Conservatives are assuming a comfortable irrelevance more familiar to Liberal Democrats.
That would be mad. Third place in the next General Election will spell death for the Conservatives. They will lose their place as the default home of funding, press attention and votes for those who want lower taxes. They will be a broad-church party with no congregation. All the careerists and hangers-on will leave.
Kemi seems to be trying to be the most “right wing” party in UK politics. But remaining the default right wing option in UK politics what the Conservatives should be playing for at the next General Election. She is aiming for the wrong target.
You can still get a copy of our new edition of ChamberUK. Our parliamentary journal.