On November 19, 2025 gunmen attacked a church in the town of Eruku, central Nigeria’s Kwara State, killing at least two people and abducting the pastor and worshippers. Just days later, in the country’s northwest, a Catholic boarding school was raided and more than 300 students and teachers were taken hostage, one of the worst mass kidnappings of children in Nigeria’s history. Similar stories have started emerging from Africa’s most populous country in recent months, capturing global attention.
In the immediate aftermath, the Nigerian federal government and the Niger-State governor ordered the closure of schools in the affected region, and President Bola Ahmed Tinubu postponed foreign-travel plans in order to oversee security briefings. Meanwhile, on the global stage, U.S. President Donald Trump declared that “Christianity is facing an existential threat in Nigeria,” and instructed the Pentagon to develop plans to protect Nigerian Christians. He also warned of suspending U.S. aid and possibly intervening militarily if the Nigerian government failed to act as part of the US administration’s move to tackle international conflicts.
The events thrust Nigeria’s security crisis into sharper relief: a wave of attacks combining mass abduction and targeted violence, using tactics that appear to intersect criminal ransom networks and armed militia groups. Experts note that while communities of various faiths suffer, the scale and frequency of mass kidnappings, especially of children in schools, are rising alarmingly.
A Country Under Strain
Nigeria presents a divided picture along religious and regional lines. The northern states are predominantly Muslim, while Christian communities are concentrated in the south. The federal capital, Abuja, established in 1991, lies roughly at the central belt between these zones.
Image: The Swearing in of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu – Paul Kagame via Flickr
Historically, the region comprised many Muslim emirates and indigenous-faith kingdoms. British colonial rule during the 19th century combined the northern and southern administrative zones in 1914 to form what became modern Nigeria. The country gained independence in 1960 and thereafter endured coups, secessionist states and a civil war that left deep national scars.
In 1999 Nigeria adopted a new constitution and returned to civilian rule; since then, the formal structures of democracy have operated, including peaceful handovers of power, even when opposition parties win. At the same time, however, the country faces major structural challenges: a violent Islamist insurgency led by Boko Haram, separatist movements in the south-east, rising criminal-gang activity, and corruption that diverts oil revenues away from development.
Religion-demographic data indicate that in 2018 the Central Intelligence Agency estimated about 53.5% of Nigerians were Muslim, 10.6% Roman Catholic and 35.3% other Christian, together 45.9% Christian. More recent analyses place the numbers closer to 50-51% Muslim and 47-48% Christian, with small percentages practising traditional indigenous religions.
Image: Nigerian President Bola Tinubu at the WEF Special Meeting on Global Collaboration, Growth and Energy for Development – Deepu Das / World Economic Forum
The current government under President Bola Tinubu has emphasised the importance of religious balance in appointments: in recent weeks, a Christian was appointed as Chief of Defence Staff, signalling the administration’s awareness of faith-balance politics.
At the same time, analysts say the state’s response to armed groups has been insufficient. As one Lagos-based researcher put it: “The perpetrators of violent acts often get away with it, and this impunity is deeply indicative of massive state failure.”
Allegations of Christian Persecution and Genocide
In recent months, a number of high-profile statements and reports have claimed that Christians in Nigeria are being systematically targeted, raising accusations of persecution or even genocide. Some international Christian advocacy groups estimate that more than 50,000 Nigerian Christians have been killed since 2010, and that “millions” have been displaced. One data summary claims that more than 18,000 churches and Christian-owned schools have been attacked in that timeframe.
Image: Swearing-in ceremony of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu – Paul Kagame via Flickr
In the U.S, a congressional resolution introduced by Representative Riley M. Moore condemned “the slaughter of Christians in Nigeria” and supported the country’s designation as a “Country of Particular Concern” (CPC).
However, these claims are disputed by independent monitoring organisations. The crisis-monitoring project ACLED Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project concluded that from 2020-2025, some 20,409 civilians died in targeted attacks in Nigeria, of which only 317 were from religion-targeted attacks on Christians and 417 on Muslims.
Analysts note that many attacks are driven by factors other than religion, including communal land disputes, herder-farmer violence, criminal kidnappings for ransom, and broader insurgency. Key evidence gaps remain: many reports rely on aggregate figures that do not always specify faith of victims; allegations of “genocide” are not accepted by major human-rights bodies; and the Nigerian government denies state-sponsored persecution of Christians.
What can be said with certainty is that violence has escalated and that Christian-majority communities in certain regions (especially the Middle Belt and parts of north-central Nigeria) have been repeatedly targeted for killings, kidnappings and church-burnings. Whether this constitutes systematic genocide against Christians as a religious group remains contested.
Nigeria on a global stage
The debate over Nigeria’s security and religious-violence crisis has attracted international attention, prompting reactions from governments, international organisations and civil society. In the United States, the Trump administration designated Nigeria a “Country of Particular Concern” (CPC) for religious freedom, citing alleged failure of Nigerian authorities to protect Christian populations. The U.S. ordered the Pentagon to develop plans for possible military intervention if Nigeria did not act. A resolution in the U.S. Congress reaffirmed that the country would not “turn a blind eye” to the persecution of Christians in the country.
Meanwhile, Nigeria’s government rejected the framing of the crisis as targeted Christian genocide. Foreign Minister Yusuf Tuggar said in November 2025 that state involvement in religious persecution was “impossible” under Nigeria’s constitution. The government said violence affected communities of all faiths and blamed insurgents, criminal networks and resource-competition rather than a campaign against a single religious group.
Image: Foreign Minister Yusef Tuggar and Deputy British Prime Minister David Lammy – Jim Winslet/Wilton Park/FCDO
At the international level, the African Union Commission chairperson rejected claims of genocide, telling the United Nations that the violence in Nigeria “has nothing to do with the kind of atrocities we see in Sudan or the DRC”, and cautioned against such characterisations.
Civil society and human-rights organisations responded variably. Some pressed for accountability and protection of vulnerable communities, while others stressed the complexity of Nigerian violence and warned that oversimplified religious-targeting narratives may obscure root causes.
What is next for Nigeria?
Nigeria’s sprawling security crisis continues to evolve faster than the state is able to respond. Analysts warn that the fragmentation of violence, ranging from extremist insurgencies in the north-east to mass kidnapping networks in the north-west and communal militias in the Middle Belt, poses a serious challenge not only to public safety but to the authority of the Nigerian state itself.
Researchers at SBM Intelligence say that large swathes of territory have effectively become ungoverned spaces, where armed groups collect taxes, control roads and conduct kidnappings with little interference. Local governments have repeatedly called for increased military presence, but overstretched federal forces remain focused on multiple fronts at once, and are frequently outmatched in terrain where militants have years of familiarity.
At the same time, international pressure is also intensifying. If the United States or other global actors push for a narrower, more religiously framed intervention strategy, analysts caution that such actions could deepen sectarian divides and potentially strengthen extremist propaganda, which already exploits narratives of Christian–Muslim conflict.
Economists add a further warning – persistent insecurity is already damaging Nigeria’s economy, especially agriculture and oil production, and discouraging foreign investment. Without tangible improvements in security and governance, the country risks a prolonged crisis that could undermine decades of democratic progress.
Featured Image via Paul Kagame via Flickr
