The paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) of Sudan have announced their acceptance of a recent US-led proposal for a humanitarian ceasefire, sparking cautious optimism amidst the nation’s deadly two-year-long conflict.
The war began in April 2023 when the RSF and regular Sudanese army, previously uneasy partners, clashed over plans for military integration. The initial power struggle has since devolved into a devastating civil war, killing tens of thousands and causing a massive humanitarian crisis across the country.
The RSF’s Key Milestone: The Fall of El Fasher
The RSF’s agreement to the truce proposal comes on the heels of a significant military victory: the capture of the key city of El Fasher.
El Fasher had served as the Sudanese army’s last major stronghold in the Darfur region. Its fall marked a critical milestone in the war, giving the RSF de facto control over more than a quarter of Sudan’s territory.
The city’s capture was followed by troubling reports from witnesses of mass killings and civilian abductions by RSF fighters. This included the alleged murder of 460 people in a maternity hospital in the region. While the RSF has publicly called for the protection of civilians and promised to prosecute any violations, the reports underscore the urgency of a true cessation of hostilities.
Image: View of a new settlement in Zam Zam camp for Internally Displaced People (IDP), North Darfur – Albert Gonzalez Farran, UNAMID
Sudan’s paramilitary Rapid Support Forces claimed that they had arrested several of their fighters after outrage over the killings. However, human rights campaigners and Sudanese people believe this was an attempt to suppress the criticism.
The conflict has led to millions of people displaced and sparked widespread hunger, particularly in the Western regions of the country, prompting the UN to call it one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises and the declaration of famine.
The Proposal and The Global Response
The current ceasefire proposal, brokered by the US and supported by regional powers including Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Egypt, aims for a three-month humanitarian truce to be followed by negotiations for a permanent ceasefire.
The White House quickly affirmed its commitment to a resolution. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt states that the US is “actively engaged in efforts to bring about a peaceful resolution to the terrible conflict in Sudan”.
In a public statement, the RSF expressed a desire to move quickly, stating they “look forward to implementing the agreement and immediately commencing discussions on arrangements for a cessation of hostilities and the fundamental principles guiding the political process in Sudan”.
The RSF’s History of Failure and Army Hesitation
Despite the RSF’s willingness, a definitive resolution remains uncertain. The two warring factions have previously agreed on multiple ceasefire proposals since 2023, none of which have succeeded.
Image: Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) at Zam Zam camp outside El Fasher, Sudan
Crucially, the Sudanese army has yet to formally respond to the ceasefire announcement. Army leaders and allies within the Security and Defence Council met earlier this week but reportedly expressed disapproval, failing to give a definitive answer to the US proposal.
With the Sudanese government warning that genocide is unfolding in Darfur, and the Foreign Secretary calling for an immediate halt to fighting, all eyes will be on the diplomatic effort and whether it can finally end the systematic violence and prevent a complete state collapse.
The Trajectory of the RSF
The RSF’s seizure of El Fasher represents a major strategic shift, consolidating their control over Darfur and effectively pushing Sudan toward a de facto partition along East-West lines. However, this military victory is overshadowed by a humanitarian crisis of historic proportions, with widespread famine and mass displacement driving the urgency for the US-led truce.
For the RSF to succeed long-term, their strategy relies on two key factors: sustained external backing and gaining political legitimacy. The military advantage they have gained, despite the catastrophic cost of reported atrocities, provides significant leverage at the negotiating table. Should the current ceasefire fail, the RSF is set to solidify its control over western Sudan, maintain its powerful position through gold-smuggling revenues, and continue to challenge the Sudanese army’s claim to be the sole representative of the state. The critical unknown remains the Sudanese army’s ultimate response to the truce proposal.
Featured Image via Albert Gonzalez Farran, UNAMID
