Following overnight results indicating substantial losses for the Conservative Party in England’s council elections, alongside Labour’s significant victories and gains by minor parties like the Liberal Democrats and Greens, the political landscape shows notable shifts. The emergence of the Reform Party as a credible challenger adds complexity, while internal discussions within the Conservative Party raise questions about leadership stability. The results foreshadow the potential impact on the upcoming general election, signaling pivotal change in British politics.
After overnight results from a third of England’s councils, the Conservative Party faces substantial losses.
The Conservative Chairman has acknowledged that these results are ‘far worse’ than in 2021. With defeats in key areas like Peterborough and Lincolnshire, the party has lost a total of 122 councillors so far.
Meanwhile, Labour secured a significant victory in the Blackpool South by-election, further solidifying its position. Additionally, Labour’s gains, particularly in Redditch, Rushmore, and Thurrock, signify a shifting political landscape.
The Liberal Democrats and Greens have also seen increases in their councillor numbers – with the Lib Dems gaining 18 councillors, and the gaining Greens 13. Most notably, the emergence of Reform poses a notable challenge to the two main political parties – despite contesting only 300 seats, the results in places like Sunderland signify that the support for the party is real.
Blackpool South By-Election: A Message to the Prime Minister?
Whilst Labour has made gains in local government elections across Engand, including Rushmore for the first time, something which Tony Blair did not even manage to achieve, as well as Hartlepool and Thurrock, their biggest success so far comes from Blackpool South’s by-election results.
With Labour Party’s Chris Webb becoming the new MP for Blackpool South, winning more than 10,000 votes – giving the Labour party a swing of 26%, this has gone down as the third biggest win in Labour’s favour since the Second World War. Webb has issued dedicated support for the Labour leader, stating that “Starmer is a friend of Blackpool”.
Leader of the Labour Party, Sir Keir Starmer, has claimed that this is a ‘seismic win.’ Stating “that wasn’t just a little message. That wasn’t just a murmur. That was a shout from Blackpool. We want to change. And Blackpool speaks for the whole country in saying we’ve had enough now, after 14 years of failure, 14 years of decline.”
The results show that the Tories gained second place by the skin of their teeth, just 117 votes ahead of the Reform Party. However, this result does not issue a threat solely to the Conservative Party but indicates that Reform may be becoming the real opposition in the North of England to the Labour Party.
Labour Gains Should Not be Overestimated
Whilst Labour has expectedly climbed ahead in both the results and the polls, their success should be perceived with caution.
The Conservative Party have managed to achieve a rare conservative gain in Newcastle and have held on to Harlow, where Keir Starmer campaigned on the eve of polling day. Furthermore, the Labour loss in Oldham, raise questions over Keir’s support.
In Oldham, where one in four residents are Muslim, support for the Labour Party is declining due to the Labour Party’s approach on the Israel-Gaza war. Despite these claims, former Labour Councillor in Oldham, Arooj Shah, has stated that it is not a “fair statement” to say that Starmer’s position on Gaza contributed to the loss.
Inside the Conservative Party: Are the Tories Going to Topple Rishi?
Inside Westminster, the discussion circulating from these local elections is closely linked to the plans of Tory rebels who want to oust Rishi Sunak. Only two of the rebels have declared their allegiance publicly. Andrea Jenkyns, one of them, however, does not sound hopeful of getting the support required for a confidence vote.
“My stance is the same, but I’m not sure colleagues are going to be putting letters in, so we’re working with what we’ve got.”
Conservative MP for Morley and Outwood, Andrea Jenkyns
It seems that the results are not bad enough for the party rebels to take action. The Tory Chairman, Richard Holden, says that there is “no doubt” Sunak will lead the party into the next general election.
Who is Benefitting from the Conservative Fallout?
With the Liberal Democrats coming a close third so far in the election results, pressure is mounting on the Conservative Party. However, whilst the Lib Dems are picking up growth, this is not necessarily to the same extent that they would like.
The real minor party challenger appears to be the Reform Party. Finishing a close second in Blackpool South and securing mass support in Sunderland, it is clear that their success in the polls is translating into tangible results.
Final Thought:
As we anticipate further local election outcomes, the current results already offer insights into the changing political landscape. This is conveyed by significant losses for the Conservative Party and Labour’s victories, including the noteworthy Labour win in the Blackpool South by-election. The emergence of the Reform Party as a credible challenger, alongside gains by the Liberal Democrats and Greens, highlights the shifting terrain. With internal discussions within the Conservative Party and mounting pressure from emerging challengers, the post-local election outcome will undoubtedly shape the next General Election.
There is plenty more to come. Four “metro mayor” results are expected this afternoon, starting with the Tees Valley followed by the East Midlands (around 13:30), and York and North Yorkshire (16:00). Most of the remaining council elections will be announced, beginning around 12:30. The results from the police and crime commissioner elections are due between 13:00 and 18:00, and there will be more results on Saturday – including the London mayoral election.
To gain more insight on what these local and regional elections could mean for the main parties ahead of the next General Election, click here.
