A temporary move to Proportional Representation in Wales is set to be in place for the Senedd election in 2026.
The current system consists of a First Past the Post (FPTP) with an Additional Member System (AMS) elected from five larger regions, one of which covers two thirds of the country.
AMS is supposed to provide a proportional Welsh parliament but also keep a single constituency MS. It’s a mix of Westminster’s FPTP system and a party lists system. But all voting systems have drawbacks – and can either fuel tactical voting or put voters off completely.
In the 2024 UK General Election, run with the first past the post system, 57.8 per cent of voters in the UK ended up with an MP they didn’t vote for. It’s therefore no wonder there is apathy amongst the electorate.
Granted, the current Senedd system does have some contingency for voters who feel under-represented – with list MSs providing a second layer of representation. Additionally, every party can potentially win seats in every area, which ensures the government cannot ignore parts of the country.
Under the new rules of Proportional Representation, the Welsh Parliament will operate a system similar to that used in Norway or Spain.
The new system in practice will see the Welsh Parliament having 16 constituencies with six members representing each – the total number of Senedd members will increase from 60 to 96 members in 2026.
The people of Wales will be able to vote for a party, who will have drawn up a list of representatives, in order of the Party’s priorities in getting them into the Welsh Parliament, the Senedd.
There could be a team of MS’s working to represent a range of different political opinions for each area in the country. It makes sense for opinions in society to be represented in proportion to their numbers, and this aspect is welcomed.
Comparisons to countries with a similar population size and parliamentary representation shows that Wales is gaining parity. However, using the list system, national parties might be tempted to use the Senedd as a stopgap, a route in to, or out of, Westminster. The Senedd must not be considered a stepping stone.
As cynical as it sounds this is something we must be mindful of. We have come a long way as a nation; we are proud of our heritage and all Wales stands for. This system could be misused for political gain that is not in the best interests for Wales.
The list system means parties will be able to choose who is prioritised for seats in the Welsh Parliament. Those invested in the Senedd wholeheartedly want to protect its culture and safeguard it from Westminster-focused parties that could prove detrimental to Plenary business.
Proportional Representation systems can lead to coalition governments, and minority parties have a better chance of being represented. All combined, this could create a much more representative and co-operative system – but it may also be confusing for the electorate.
It could also mean that the local Westminster MP is far more known to constituents than the six Senedd Members representing a seat. This could potentially weaken the Senedd.
Whatever the long-term solution, there needs to be confidence in a system that promotes equity and makes voters want to vote.
In the meantime, we will work with what we have and keep pushing what matters for Wales. In the new(ish) world, MSs will be able to work together for their shared constituency, and constituents can choose which representative(s) to contact about any issues. If one representative in the Senedd cannot help them, then they will have five other options.
The idea that this system will continue to be reformed after 2026 is reliant on the assumption that the political make-up of the Senedd will not change, something that the polls are constantly contradicting. Any change will need a super majority in the Senedd. If one party does well out of the 2026 system that might mean the end of any further reform to the Welsh parliament system.
Featured image via Jane Rix / Shutterstock.
Rhys ab Owen MS
DesignationAelod o’r Senedd dros Ganol De Cymru / Member of the Senedd for South Wales Central
