Recent polling by Survation has seen higher levels of support in Scotland for Reform UK than ever previously recorded. The party has displaced the Scottish Conservatives in popularity.
The next Holyrood election is due to be held in May 2026, with findings showing that if the election was held this month Reform UK would take 17 per cent of the constituency vote. This is now five per cent ahead of the Conservatives.
In the Regional list vote, the party would win 16 per cent of the vote.
Despite recent reports of fighting within the party, said to centre around a spat between Nigel Farage and ex-MP Rupert Lowe, Reform are quickly gaining support in Scotland.
Compared to January polls, the voting intention has seen a four per cent increase in favour of Reform. This change would see them gain four per cent seats in the election.
It displays a surge of voters who did not vote for them in the last general election, showing deepening support for the party. Nearly four in ten of Conservative voters in 2021 would now back Farage’s party.
This news comes amidst a claimed boost in support for Reform in Wales, where Farage has seen new councillors to the party.
The broader landscape in Scotland remains mostly stable, with the SNP maintaining their lead over Labour. Although the increase in Reform seats comes at the expense of the Conservatives, the deepening support for the party raises concerns that they could complicate Labour’s path to closing the gap with the SNP. In this projection, Labour have only five more seats than Reform.
In a response to the results, Stuart McMillian of the SNP and MSP for Greenock and Inverclyde said: “Labour is now locked in a battle with Nigel Farage for second place as they look set to record their worst result in the history of devolution.”
He added that the party had “broken so many of the promises they used to get elected”, referring to recent cuts on disability support, claiming that Labour “continues to treat Scotland as an afterthought.”
