Health leaders have cautioned that Rishi Sunak is “highly unlikely” to fulfil his commitment to reduce NHS waiting lists. A “sobering” evaluation indicates that the backlog is suggested to rise to 8 million and won’t start to fall until the next summer.
Sunak’s pledge
In January, the prime minister pledged that “NHS waiting lists will fall” as he presented five pledges upon which he based his time in office. The backlog stood at 7.2 million back then, but it has now reached 7.75 million, marking the highest point since records began in 2007.
A report released on Friday by the Health Foundation, an independent research organisation, will amplify the pressure on Sunak over the NHS. The 15-page analysis estimates that the waiting list for hospital treatment in England will continue to rise for a minimum of 10 months, ultimately surpassing 8 million, irrespective of whether strikes continue or not.
The thinktank utilised four distinct scenarios and determined that, according to current patterns, NHS waiting list statistics might reach their peak by August 2024 if there weren’t any additional labour strikes by healthcare workers, before gradually decreasing. However, if strikes were to continue, the list could potentially grow by an additional 180,000, it found.
Pledge ‘unlikely to be met’
Matthew Taylor, the chief executive of the NHS Confederation, said: “This analysis all but confirms that the prime minister’s pledge to reduce the size of the waiting list is increasingly unlikely to be met.”
He added: “As the Health Foundation report rightly says, the root cause of the delays to treatment that patients are now experiencing is a decade of underinvestment in the NHS.”
Taylor indicated that there is a chance for the backlog to expand beyond what the analysis has predicted.
“The worst-case scenario outlined in the report doesn’t take into account the possibility of a difficult winter, including a heavy flu season or a Covid outbreak, or a continuing deterioration of NHS trust finances as they seek to plug the costs of ongoing industrial action. If these risks do materialise then we are facing an even worse scenario.”
Tim Mitchell, the president of the Royal College of Surgeons of England, said: “The Health Foundation’s sobering analysis highlights that the prime minister’s pledge to cut NHS waiting lists is highly unlikely to be achieved. Waiting lists have ballooned over the past decade due to underinvestment and workforce shortages.”
The call for ‘transformative solutions’
Mitchell emphasised the immediate necessity for “transformative solutions,” like increased investment in nationwide independent surgical centres, to effectively tackle waiting lists.
“Crucially, we must also improve staff morale and retention,” he added. “The government’s commitment to grow the healthcare workforce is welcome. However, recruiting new staff is only half of the solution. Providing a supportive, well-resourced working environment is vital to reducing burnout.
“Otherwise, the NHS risks being caught in a revolving door as we continuously lose the very staff we are trying to hire. By supporting staff and providing the resources they need to do their jobs, we can begin to reduce waiting times.”
Sunak blames industrial action
As the NHS backlog has continued to surge in recent months, Sunak has attempted to blame ongoing industrial action within the health service for long waiting lists.
However, the analysis from the Health Foundation reveals that industrial action by consultants and junior doctors has contributed to an increase of approximately 210,000 patients on the waiting list, which represents only 3% of the total list’s size.
Wes Streeting, the shadow health secretary, stated that the report “blows out of the water” the government’s efforts to hold doctors responsible for the NHS crisis.
The Liberal Democrat health and social care spokesperson, Daisy Cooper, said: “This research shows yet another one of Rishi Sunak’s pledges is set to be left on the scrap heap of Conservative broken promises.
“This government has left our NHS on life support, while people across the country are left waiting in pain for months for the treatment they need.”
NHS has almost eliminated 2-year waits
NHS England reported significant progress in reducing the longest waiting times, nearly eradicating two-year waits and cutting waits exceeding 65 weeks by more than half.
The Department of Health and Social Care confirmed it was working to reduce long waiting periods and had successfully reduced 18-month waits by over 90% from their highest levels in September 2021.
A spokesperson added: “We are maximising all available capacity by drawing on the independent sector, as set out by our elective recovery taskforce to give patients more control over where they receive their care so they can be treated more quickly.”
Final thought
The Health Foundation’s analysis paints a grim picture, suggesting that the backlog is not only going to persist but actually get worse. This is a far cry from the Prime Minister’s vow to see waiting lists fall, a pledge that now seems increasingly improbable.
While the government talks about growing the healthcare workforce, it’s essential to remember that recruiting new staff is only part of the solution. We must also provide these professionals with the support and resources they need to do their jobs effectively, or this could lead to burnout.
This situation highlights broken promises by the Conservative government and calls for a reevaluation of healthcare policy with sustained investment and a focus on systemic issues. Patients are suffering while waiting for treatment, and it’s time for meaningful change.
