Politics UK has for the first time produced its own election predictions. What you’re seeing on this page is a ward by ward projection for this year’s local elections. Our methodology can be found at the bottom of this page.
Conservatives
“Expectation management” was an inescapable phrase for the Tories in the run-up to last year’s local elections. The same has been true this year.
The seats being contested this year were all last contested in 2021: at the apotheosis of Boris Johnson’s political popularity. Given that the Tories are currently experiencing something like their all-time nadir, their councillors are stared straight down the barrel of a wipeout. For Kemi Badenoch, a victory would mean keeping control of just one council and losing no more than 300 councillors.
Labour
At any election during the past century – a Tory wipeout would a dream for a Labour leader. But on this occasion, Labour won’t be alone on feasting on Conservative losses – they’ll have to share with Reform UK and Nigel Farage.
We’re predicting a poor performance from Labour this time around. They’re fighting against an incumbent’s disadvantage, their poll numbers are low – and they’re facing a drought of enthusiasm amongst a centre-left coalition that disapproves of several of their policies, such as Winter Fuel.
Liberal Democrats and Greens
Tomorrow night is shaping up to be a good night for the Liberal Democrats. Historically, they thrive in local elections and this year will be no different.
Liberal Democrats will be taking wards in parliamentary seats that they won last summer, they’ll also be consolidating on a string of recent council byelection
Likewise, the Greens will be expecting to benefit from disatisfied left-wingers who gave their vote to Keir Starmer to oust the Tories.
Reform
Reform will have the strongest night of any of the major parties. First of all – they’ll be cementing themselves within that major party category for the first time.
They’re leading in some national polls – and look set to break the mould of the last century’s Labour-Conservative duopoly.
