Scandal threatens to end Keir Starmer’s volatile premiership early, after the US Department of Justice released evidence that Peter Mandelson not only continued to associate with pedophile Jeffery Epstein after the latter’s conviction, but also shard private details regarding Gordon Brown’s government with Epstein. Labour MPs and opposition alike have called for Starmer to resign, in light of the fact that Starmer was made aware of Mandelson’s relationship with Epstein prior to appointing him as British Ambassador to the US. But, how likely is it that Starmer will resign, and who could replace him?
Whether Starmer will resign is not certain. So far, criticism from both sides of the Commons has been expressed; Labour MPs calling for Starmer to resign, and opposition leaders demanding a vote of no confidence be held. Leader of the Conservative Party, Kemi Badenoch, stated that it’s a matter of “when, not if” Starmer resigns, however has not yet tabled a vote of no confidence in the government. This is perhaps because if Starmer’s administration wins a simple majority, they cannot be challenged again for a year. Resignation therefore is the most likely scenario for Starmer’s premiership to end, as support from inside his party begins to dwindle.
Then again, Starmer has another option to get out of this scandal and prolong his time as Prime minister. As did Johnson, could utilise Morgan McSweeney, Chief of Downing Street staff, as a scapegoat, and fire him to arraign blame on McSweeney for the Mandelson situation. Supposing Starmer decides to follow the Tory playbook, his premiership stands a very slim chance of surviving. If it does not, then who is currently tipped to replace him?
Angela Rayner
Coming in first is Angela Rayner, former Deputy Prime Minister and Labour Leader. Popular amongst working class voters for her background, Rayner could possibly boost polling numbers for the party, if she were to succeed Starmer as Leader. Then again, Rayner was previously embroiled in a scandal herself, over failing to pay enough tax on a flat owned by her, ironic considering at the time of misconduct she was also serving as Housing Secretary. Whether the Labour Party and electorate alike will want to choose Rayner in light of this is questionable, but, if the Tory playbook is once again to be consulted, Sunak was elected Conservative Leader in similar circumstances, after the Partygate scandals, thus perhaps Rayner should have hope.
Wes Streeting
Next in line is West Streeting, Health Secretary and long-rumoured opposition to Starmer. Streeting has previously been accused of plotting against Starmer to become Prime Minister, and compared to Rayner, has no notable public scandals raring his name. As well as this, Streeting has been fairly successful as Health Secretary, cutting siting lists for the NHS and investing in AI technology to improve diagnostics, thus proving competence. Then again, Streeting isn’t popular with the furthest left wing of the party, considering his policy blocking the NHS from prescribing hormone blockers to minors. On the contrary, those of that persuasion have by mass exodus left the Labour Party for the Greens, and so Streeting, as a centrist, could thrive within the role.
Ed Miliband
Surprinsingly, Ed Miliband’s odds to replace Starmer have increased exponentially, after Ian Duncan Smith, former Conservative Leader, stated on GB News that Miliband, current Environment Secretary, could become the next Prime Minister. After all, Miliband is extremely popular among Labour members, and has previously served as Labour Leader in opposition to David Cameron, thus has leadership experience. Nonetheless, Miliband has been criticised, most notably by Tony Blair, for the lack of credibility in Labour’s energy policy, and so unlike Streeting, doesn’t have proven policy competence in government. If Miliband can’t be successful in an area such as the environment, how can he possibly be expected to excel as Prime Minister?
Andy Burnham
To mention Andy Burnham seems redundant, considering he cannot currently become Prime Minister as he does not sit in Parliament, and yet Burnham is still favoured to become the next Labour leader. As the hugely popular Mayor of Greater Manchester, Burnham has managed to maintain high approval ratings – something that he could perhaps aid nationally, if he were to succeed. However, this is not only unlikely, but impossible, especially after he was blocked from standing in the Groton and Denton by-election, which will now likely be won by the Greens or Reform UK, a huge blow for the Labour Party and the two-party system either way.
Shabana Mahmood
Last, but perhaps not least, is Shabana Mahmood, current Home excretory, who has become known for her harsh stances on immigration. In 2025, Mahmood published the border Security, Asylum and Immigration Act, which enhanced powers to reduce the numbers of illegal migrants entering the UK, notably including Section 52, which enables the government to immediately deport immigrants who commit crimes during their stay in the UK, without trial and without sentencing. Mahmood is extremely popular with the right wing, and considering how high Reform are polling, perhaps Mahmood may bring the Labour Party back to glory, or rather competence. Farage himself implied that Mahmood’s rhetoric suggested she was auditioning to join Reform. Then again, Mahmood’s ideological convictions may prove to be an obstacle to her becoming Labour Leader, for historically the Labour Party has succeeded a a centrist party, not a right-wing one, thus deeming her odds to be rather slim.
Starmer’s end may not be nearing, however, considering the current atmosphere he is facing, it is likely a resignation may come in the next few weeks. A premiership unsuccessful and unstable in every aspect, perhaps it is time for the Starmer era to come to a close. Whether Streeting or Rayner will ascend the Labour throne is yet to be seen, although one thing is certain. The Labour Party must change, and must rid itself of its connections to Epstein.
Featured Image by Simon Dawson / No. 10 Downing Street
