Voting has started in Mid Bedfordshire and Tamworth, which is seen as crucial in predicting Rishi Sunak’s electoral fate.
While the Conservatives hold defending majorities of almost 25,000 in Mid Bedfordshire and nearly 20,000 in Tamworth, typically indicating an easy victory. Their prospects will be hampered by the party’s poor poll ratings and the track records of departing MPs.
Mid Bedfordshire
In Mid Bedfordshire, the vote was triggered by the resignation of former Culture Secretary Nadine Dorries, who protested the lack of a peerage in Boris Johnson’s resignation honours. Her extended departure drew attention to her limited involvement in local affairs.
Tamworth
In Tamworth, the former Deputy Chief Whip, Chris Pincher, stepped down from his seat after losing an appeal against an eight-week suspension from parliament for inappropriate conduct. He has been accused of groping two men at a private members’ club in the summer of 2022.
Tamworth is witnessing a direct fight between the Conservatives and Labour. The latter held the Staffordshire seat from 1997 to 2010 when Pincher was initially elected.
Sarah Edwards v Andrew Cooper
Sarah Edwards, the Labour candidate in Tamworth, is the favoured choice according to bookmakers to challenge the Conservatives’ Andrew Cooper. However, this would necessitate a swing of more than 21 percentage points.
Cooper hasn’t strengthened his position, especially after it was revealed that in 2020, he shared a Facebook post of a flowchart suggesting that parents should only seek financial help if they were employed and terminated their TV and mobile phone contracts.
Uncertainty
A Labour victory wouldn’t be unprecedented; in a 1996 byelection in South East Staffordshire, the previous seat in the area, saw Labour defeat the Tories with a swing of almost 22 percentage points.
Mid Bedfordshire is even more uncertain, as both the Liberal Democrats and Labour have allocated significant resources to the byelection.
While Labour came in a distant second to Dorries in the 2019 general election, they contend that this makes them the clear challengers. Conversely, the Lib Dems argue that the seat’s predominantly rural demographics and the need to persuade wavering Tory voters to switch sides favour their chances.
The unwillingness of either side to back down means that it’s possible for even a somewhat demoralised local Conservative group to secure a win with their candidate, Festus Akinbusoye, who currently serves as the local police and crime commissioner.
However, should the Conservatives suffer a defeat, it would either be the largest majority overturned in a byelection since 1945 or the all-time largest, depending on which perspective you follow.
The collective uncertainty surrounding these outcomes complicates the process of drawing broader political conclusions from these results.
A significant setback for Rishi Sunak?
Nevertheless, the loss of these byelections would be viewed as a significant setback for Rishi Sunak and a further indicator of potential defeat in the upcoming general election next year.
While securing one or both of these seats might be celebrated by No 10 as a sign of the prime minister’s resurgence, this may not be the case, given the previously substantial majorities and the possibility that Labour and the Lib Dems could cancel each other out in Mid Bedfordshire.
Final thought
The byelections in Mid Bedfordshire and Tamworth hold significance beyond their local boundaries. While the Conservatives typically enjoy substantial majorities, the departure of incumbent MPs and poor party ratings add uncertainty.
Tamworth features a straight fight between the Conservatives and Labour, with Sarah Edwards as a contender. In Mid Bedfordshire, the Lib Dems and Labour are vying for the seat.
The outcomes are uncertain, and a potential Conservative defeat could signal trouble for Rishi Sunak and the upcoming general election. The complexity of these contests leaves us with more questions than answers about shifting demographics and voter sentiment.
