Friday brought judgement day for Angela Rayner who has found to not have taken due care in relation to paying stamp duty of her flat in Hove – bringing a week of turmoil for the government to a close with a major Cabinet reshuffle being triggered.
For a Prime Minister who declared that “phase two” of his government was underway on Monday after a junior minister reshuffle, subsequent events could not have played out any worse.
In an ideal world Starmer would have hoped that, as unconvincing as that declaration was, he could finally reset his government’s agenda ahead of the autumn budget.
Instead, he must simultaneously contend with not just a government in crisis, but a party in crisis, in what is going to be the most testing period of his premiership so far.
Ahead of a budget which is likely to bring substantial tax rises (yet another U-turn from his Government), the Prime Minister must get through a Labour Party conference that will have a more than discontent reception.
Starmer would have had plans to use party conference to explain to the party why the measures the Chancellor’s budget are necessary in a bid to retain party unity – a plan which has no doubt been derailed by this week’s revelations, with party conference now being consumed by the search for a new deputy leader.
The PM must reckon with the fact that you cannot govern effectively if either one of the cabinet or the party are not united – let alone at the same time.
Peculiarly, this may not have been the worst-case scenario for Starmer, given the situation. The fact is that Rayner had no obligation whatsoever to resign in her capacity as Deputy Labour Leader – a post which would have been Starmer’s worst nightmare for her to retain from the backbenches.
As she has resigned from this role, as well as her Cabinet positions, Starmer is further away from a leadership coup than would have been expected if she were to remain as deputy leader. Regardless, the Prime Minister will have to be cautious about Rayner still potentially adding to his backbench woes, with rebellions already an issue for the government.
The most significant event in all of this could be the major cabinet reshuffle which Rayner’s resignation has forced. This has seen Yvette Cooper becoming Foreign Secretary, David Lammy shifting to Justice and Deputy Prime Minister, with Shabana Mahmood filling the vacant Home Secretary position.
Cooper has always been held in high regard by those within the Labour Party, and Starmer no doubt believes that this appointment is what he needs to become a more respected force on the international stage – firepower he possibly does not believe he can find in David Lammy.
Shifting from Foreign Secretary to Justice Secretary would usually be regarded as a demotion, which suggests why Starmer has offered Lammy the consolation of also becoming Deputy PM.
Let’s not forget the other reshuffle of the week which has overshadowed this Ministerial one, with Darren Jones shifting from the Treasury to Number 10 amongst those changes.
Now the dynamic within Number 10 and what role those in Starmer’s top team would play has been a matter of contention, which will also determine whether Lammy’s role as Deputy PM is nothing more than a title.
The shift which will be the most influential to domestic politics are the changes at the Home Office – Mahmood could well be what shifts the dial for Starmer in a troubling time with the country upended with the small boats crisis.
If Mahmood can be as harsh as she appears she would be in this regard, progress may be able to be made in this area, which will take a major piece of ammunition out of Reform UK’s chamber ahead of the next general election.
Despite finding the silver lining within the reshuffle, this is a dire situation for the Prime Minister to be in, with the public mood of his premiership plummeting without sign of stopping.
The true state of play will not be able to be seen until after the November budget however, when gruelling tax rises will be announced to the nation. It is my belief that keeping Reeves in post is a calculated move by Starmer, who would want the Chancellor to take the brunt of the backlash for the budget, which of course would keep the option open to sack her when the time comes.
It is clear that the Prime Minister has completely lost the narrative, with no clear message, an agenda which is far from being delivered, and a major reshuffle amidst scandal just over a year from entering office. If there is a
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