REFORM LEADS THE POLLS – but has their momentum peaked?
February followed the trajectory of January for the three leading parties, with Reform continuing to rise steadily while Labour and the Conservatives continuing to decline. Early in the month, Reform began regularly topping polls – and crucially not only in polls run by “Find Out Now,” which has consistently had higher polling from Reform than other BPC registered pollsters. Reform peaked around February 20th,when they polled at – 26.7%, two points ahead of Labour at 24.7% and 5.3 points ahead of the Conservatives at 21.4. However, since then, Reforms’ polling momentum has stalled, and actually declined. Below I have outlined the two most likely culprits for this reversal of fortune: the heightened emotions surrounding the war in Ukraine, and the increased political salience of the UK-wide unpopularity of Donald Trump and “Trumpism”.
Reform has ended the month at the top of the polls although with only 60% of the lead they had over Labour earlier in the month, Most of that late reform decline bolstered the Conservatives who finished the month polling about even with January. The Lib Dems have had a strong showing late in the month, which could be indicative of a change of their fortunes(more on this below), while the Greens and the SNP have stayed relatively steady.
National Voting Intention
Potential reasons for Reform slowdown
Ukraine – Historically the war in Ukraine has been a politically difficult issue for Reform UK. Indeed, many have argued that Farage’s comments during the 2024 campaign, in which he seemed to give credence to a Kremlin talking point by saying that ‘“we” (the West) provoked Russia’s invasion of Ukraine through the expansion of NATO,’ were largely responsible for the stagnation in Reform’s polling numbers that immediately followed that incident. While Farage has seemed to move off from this messaging – indeed, coming out and stating it was “probably essential” for Ukraine to join NATO – he has not been nearly as zealous in his support of Ukraine as other party leaders.
In the last few weeks there has been an increase in the political relevance of the issue. It’s been driven largely by President Trump’s increasingly anti-Ukraine stance (culminating on February 28th with his virulent attacks on Zelinsky during their White House meeting. ) White House meeting with Zelinsky) Keir Starmer’s commentary has been front and center too, with The Prime Minister’s ramping up his support of Ukraine, along with his decision to raise defense spending to 2.5% of GDP , faster than previously anticipated. As a result many polls show that the share of people citing “the war in Ukraine” as a top political issue has increased. Recent “More in common” poll’s show that the share of people citing the war in Ukraine as “one of the biggest issues” increased from 6%(feb 10) to 11%(feb 18) to 13%(feb 24). Pro-Ukraine sentiment may well be a reason Reform has declined in the polls. Farange’s less-than-enthusiastic support, combined with his closeness to Trump has likely resulted in the party’s polling slowdown.
Trump – Anti-Trump and “Trumpism” is also a significant factor in this month’s polling results. Trump has always had negative approval ratings in the UK, and his current net approval ratings lie between (-30) and (-40)(Ipsos). So it’s not surprising that Trump’s impact on UK politics has increased since coming to office. Although it’s still too early to tell, Alignment with Trump may not bode well for his allies in the UK. Certainly his stance on Ukraine and his threats of Trade wars with allies are not winning him new friends among the British public: nearly 8 in 10 Britons found Trump’s proposal to not include Ukraine in peace talks somewhat or completely unacceptable(yougov).
Lib Dem Momentum?
Finally I think the (rather late in the month) uptick of Lib Dem support is worth noting. Two of the last four polls this month put them at 16% of the vote, their highest polling number since November 2019. Overall Lib Dems polled one point higher this month than last. Are these polls outliers? perhaps. However, I believe they may reflect the impact of the party’s decision to differentiate itself From Labour by embracing European integration and greater opposition to Trump, both popular stances. Traditionally The Lib-Dems have excelled when they found strong ‘wedge issues’ to differentiate themselves from the Labour party. Charles Kennedy found his political niche through his opposition to the Iraq war, and Nick Clegg found his through opposition to tuition fees (*Gulp*). The next month will reveal if this positive polling movement is sustained – and the next year will show if European integration and opposition to Trump will work as an effective “Lib-Dem Niches” for Ed Davey.
Scotland
Seat Changes since January
SNP gain -> ‘Alloa and Grangemouth’, & ‘Bathgate and Linlithgow’ from REF SNP gain -> ‘Moray West, Nairn, and Strathspey’ from CON
Wales
Seat Changes since January
CON gain -> ‘Ynys Mon’ from PLAID CON gain -> ‘Mid and South Pembrokeshire’ from REF LAB gain -> ‘Gower’, Aberafan Maesteg’, &, ‘Newport East’ from REF
London
Changes since January
Lab Gained -> Dagenham and Rainham from Ref Lab Gained -> Finchley and Golders Green from Con
North of England
Changes since January
CON Gain -> ‘Barrow in Furness’, ‘Lancaster and Wyre’, ‘Colne Valey’, & ‘Selby’ From LAB REF Gain -> ‘Ashton-under-Lyne, ‘Stalybridge and Hyde’, ‘Leeds south West and Morley’, & ‘Kingston upon Hull North and Cottingham’ from LAB.
South of England
Changes since January
LD gain -> ‘mid Dorset and North Poole’ & ‘North Dorset’ from CON CON gain -> ‘swindon north’ from LAB REF gain -> ‘North West Norfolk’, ‘Central Suffolk and North Ipswich’, & ‘Suffolk Coastal’ from CON
Midlands
Changes since January
Ref Gain -> ‘Burton & attoxer’, & ‘North west l’shire’ From Con Ref Gain -> Stafford, ‘South Derbyshire’, ‘Broxtowe’, ‘Bolsover, Bassetlaw, & Birmingham Northfield from Lab
Leader net approval ratings
A Good Month for the Prime Minister (finally) – While all three leaders’ approval ratings increased this month, Starmer saw the largest gain. This is especially noteworthy when you consider that Labour’s poll ratings as a whole dropped the most – so you would expect Starmer’s ratings to drop as well. But Starmer’s position on Ukraine, plus the decision to make defense a political priority in the latter half of February, were positions taken that aligned closely with general opinion. Therefore, I expect the government will do everything they can to keep the spotlight on these issues.
Continued Apathy Towards the Leader of the Opposition – The other big takeaway from this month’s approval rating? Continuing high levels of apathy from the British public towards the leader of the opposition. As I said last month, this has been a major problem for Kemi Badenoch ever since she became LOTO. The approval ratings this month shows that apathy towards the LOTO has increased for the third consecutive month. It is understandable a new opposition leader may not engender a lot of public interest –or headlines – initially. However, four months into their leadership, you would expect a LOTO to be slowly becoming more familiar, more newsworthy, more relevant, The fact that this isn’t happening should be extremely worrying to the LOTO. The adage “all publicity is good publicity” may be true – but the converse, “no publicity is worse than bad publicity’ is also true, as Ms. Badenoch is learning right now.
