2024 was the greatest year by number of electors worldwide. Elections in India, the US, Indonesia, Pakistan, Bangladesh, the EU, the UK, France and countless others led to around 4 billion people voting.
In 2025, another set of countries will expect significant elections, alongside the change of Government of the most powerful country in the world, the USA. These elections could reshape political landscapes in countries, and influence power dynamics not only in regions, but across the world.
Canadian Federal Elections
Canada’s upcoming federal election is poised to be a contest primarily between the incumbent Liberal Party, led by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, and the Conservative Party, under the leadership of Pierre Poilievre. After nearly a decade in power, Trudeau’s government faces challenges, primarily surrounding economic challenges (cost-of living, inflation and wider affordability concerns). The recent election of Donald Trump will also likely influence electoral outcomes, with Trump having suggested high tariffs on Canada (and Mexico) as part of his foreign policy.
The Conservative Party is expected to campaign on economic reforms and fiscal restraint, while the Liberals may emphasise progressive policies on climate change and healthcare. The New Democratic Party (NDP), led by Jagmeet Singh, could play a crucial role, especially in the event of a minority government, as could other parties like the Bloc Québécois: the Liberal Government has been running a minority government since 2021, even losing the popular vote, relying on support from other parties.
Potential Scenarios:
- Conservative Victory: A shift towards conservative economic policies and potential changes in foreign policy alignments.
- Liberal Minority Government: Continuation of progressive policies, possibly in collaboration with the centre-left to left wing NDP, focusing on social programs and climate initiatives.
United States
The political landscape in the United States is marked by the inauguration of President Donald Trump on January 20th 2025, following a contentious election. Trump’s return to the presidency signals a potential resurgence of “America First” policies, with anticipated focuses on border security, deregulation, and shifts in foreign policy favouring protectionism and tariffs. The nation remains deeply divided, with widespread protests and legal challenges highlighting societal tensions.
Throughout the campaign, threats to democracy, including an assassination attempt on President-elect Trump and wider polarisation of political debate, has led to uncertainty on the outlook for America. Rumours that Trump will look to implement the 900-page policy paper ‘Project 2025’ to enshrine and consolidate political power across Government and diminish democratic systems have long been heard too.
On January 6th 2021, mass riots from Trump supporters erupted at the Capitol as supporters attempted to strom the Capitol to throw out the election. Whilst similar mobilisation attempts are not expected, the day will certainly be tense, with Vice-President Kamala Harris overseeing the confirmation of the votes.
Potential Scenarios:
- Policy Implementation: Advancement of conservative agendas, including potential tax reforms and changes in trade policies.
- Domestic Unrest: Continued polarisation may lead to increased civil unrest and challenges in governance.
Argentinian Elections
Argentina’s politics is most well-known for its outspoken new President: Javier Milei, elected in 2023. In the Midst of an economic crisis including over 140% inflation and 40% poverty, Libertarian Javier Milei was elected as President, but failed to enjoy as much success in the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate (the lower and upper house of the National Congress.
In these midterm elections, Milei will look to take control or at least a considerably larger number of legislators, to help pass his policies. Opposition parties, including the Peronist coalition, are mobilising to address social welfare concerns and economic equity: the poverty rate had hit 52.9% in the first four months of 2024, up around 10% from when Milei took power.
Potential Scenarios:
- Milei success: Increase of neoliberal economic reforms aimed at market liberalisation.
- Successful opposition defence: Continuation of power struggle between the Executive (Milei) and the Legislative (Opposition) branches.
Polish Elections
Poland’s Presidential elections will be held after incumbent Andrzej Duda stands down due to term limits. Polling currently puts the contest between the centre-right Civic Platform ‘PO’ (on around 35%) and the right-wing Law and Justice ‘PiS’ (on around 25%). PiS has faced criticism over judiciary reforms and conservative social policies, while Civic Platform advocates for stronger EU integration and democratic norms.
In the 2023 Polish Parliamentary Elections, economic issues, social freedoms, and Poland’s role within the EU were central to discourse (and will continue to be in 2025). At this election, the incumbent PiS Party lost their majority with opposition parties PO and PL2050 taking a number of seats from the PiS. If an opposition party manages to take the Presidency from PiS, it could shape the political landscape significantly, with PL2050 and PO, who command more seats than PiS, able to wield more power undoing the work of PiS.
Potential Scenarios:
- PiS Victory: Continuation of conservative policies, potentially leading to further tensions with the EU.
- Civic Platform Win: Shift towards liberal governance with an emphasis on EU relations and democratic reforms.
Romanian Elections
Romania’s 2024 Presidential Elections featured competition between a number of parties: the Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR) held 14% of the Presidential vote, the Social Democratic Party (PSD) held 19%, and second place reformist parties, Save Romania Union (USR), gained traction, particularly among urban voters, advocating for anti-corruption measures and judicial independence, making it to the second round.
However, the key development came after Independent Calin Georgescu led the first round with 23% of the vote. Alleging widespread Russian influence on the election as revealed by declassified intelligence documents, the Constitutional Court decided to annul the first round of the election. Therefore, this election will be held again in 2025.
Potential Scenarios:
- Georgescu win: A key neighbour to Ukraine becomes led by a pro-Russian ally, leading to tensions with the EU and NATO and closer relations to Russia.
- USR win: Increased pressure for systemic changes targeting corruption and enhancing judicial independence.
- Political Crisis: Further election interference leads to a political and diplomatic crisis in Romania which could spread across the EU.
German Elections
Germany’s state and regional elections will serve as indicators of public support for Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s coalition government comprising the Social Democrats (SPD), Greens, and Free Democrats (FDP). The coalition collapsed in 2024 after Scholz dismissed leader of the FDP Christian Lindner as Finance Minister, from Cabinet.
Key issues include climate policy, economic growth, and immigration. The deeply unpopular coalition (17% support for the SPD, 13% for the Greens and 4% for the FDP) are stark in comparison to the relative popularity of the Christian Democratic Union of Germany (CDU) on 30%, and the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) on 19% leads to a likely result that puts right-wing parties in the drivers’ seats. However, almost all parties in Germany have ruled out cooperation with the AfD (a ‘cordon sanitaire’) due to their hardline views on a number of policy areas
Potential Scenarios:
- Coalition Stability: Electoral mathematics allows for a coalition between parties including the CDU, the SPD, the Greens and the FDP, all parties who have previously cooperated to some extent.
- AfD Gains: Significant electoral successes for AfD could disrupt traditional party dynamics and influence national policy debates.
- Return of the Grand Alliance: CDU and SPD are successful enough to return as the ‘grand alliance’, which continued throughout Angela Merkel’s 14 years in power
Australian Elections
Australia’s federal election will assess the performance of Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s Labor government since 2022. This Government prioritised renewable energy initiatives and indigenous rights. However, Albanese’s 77 seats in the House (the lower legislative house) gives him a majority of 1: not much breathing room for an election as incumbent.
The opposition Liberal-National Coalition, led by Peter Dutton, has critiqued Labor’s economic management and national security policies, with polling since 2022 having moved Dutton’s coalition from 30-35% to 35-40% (Labour have mirrored this shift, going from 35-40% to 30%). Minor parties including the Greens and Independent candidates have also held strong numbers in polling, hovering just above 10%. In the case of a coalition, they would likely be kingmakers.
Potential Scenarios:
- Albanese Majority: Continuation of centre-left, progressive policies
- Dutton Majority: Shift away from existing policies, especially on civil rights for indigenous communities and climate change
- Hung Parliament: the Green party, as the likely kingmakers, shift political discourse and narrative to more hardline socially and economically left wing policies, including on the cost of living and climate change.
Final Thought
2025 will once again be a year filled with important elections across the world. With uncertain geopolitics surrounding Trump’s return to the White House, political uncertainty in leading EU nations, ongoing war in Ukraine, war and conflict in the Middle-East and increasing risks of instability in the Asian-pacific region with China, these elections individually and collectively could thwart the political direction of travel for entire regions. Stay tuned throughout 2025 by signing up to Chamber UK’s Newsletter, to stay up to date with developments.
