Ben Howlett
Chief Executive, CuriaAhead of her Leader’s speech to Conservative Party Conference, is Kemi Badenoch’s bid to reinvent the Conservatives faltering, leaving the party adrift, divided, and struggling for relevance?
If the images from Manchester this week are anything to go by, the Conservative Party’s attempt at reinvention is sputtering. Shadow Chancellor, Sir Mel Stride delivered his speech in a half-empty auditorium, an apt visual metaphor for a party struggling to sustain public attention and political relevance. Meanwhile, Kemi Badenoch’s leadership – born from bold promises of renewal – now looks increasingly hollow. The public seems to be losing patience with a semi-skimmed right-wing “version 2.0”, and is gravitating instead towards a full-fat opposition in Reform.
The optics of emptiness
Conferences are theatre. They are not just policy forums but demonstrations of vitality, energy, and momentum. A sparse hall this morning wasn’t just bad optics – it was a sign. The fewer the faces, the starker the message: the Conservatives are no longer a crowd-drawing force. The Guardian put it bluntly: “Humiliation upon humiliation for the Melster in front of half-full Tory crowd.”
This is not a trivial matter for party morale or media narrative. Empty seats amplify every stumble in speech, every pause, every awkward silence. Already, the contrast between past, bustling Tory conferences and this year’s subdued affair underscores the party’s struggle to remain relevant.
It is not just about numbers – because behind each chair is a person whose absence or absence of enthusiasm signals doubt, disengagement or desertion.
Badenoch: Bold claims, soft execution
Just days ago, Kemi Badenoch opened her leadership with contrition – a mea culpa, even: “We failed to bring numbers down and stop the boats”. Badenoch’s admission speaks the language of accountability and concession, something rare in modern politics. But it wrestles with a deeper crisis: her party is failing to persuade. Ambition alone is no substitute for coherence.
Badenoch has leant heavily on high-stakes proposals: withdrawing from the ECHR, repealing the Climate Change Act, promising tough immigration pledges. But boldness without credibility feels like theatre without weight. Critics have begun to argue she is trying to out-Reform Reform – that in chasing Nigel Farage’s supporters, she is alienating her moderate base. Former cabinet ministers warn that there may not be room in British politics for two populist right parties.
With Liberal Democrats coming second or snapping at the heels of the Party in its southern ‘heartlands’ – although it is hard to still define them as such given horrific local election results for the party – the Conservative Party’s lurch to the right is baffling.
The internal party response is telling: in a survey of Tory members, 50% say she should not lead the party into the next election. The conference, then, is as much a test of her legitimacy as a platform for her agenda.
Relevance in the era of full-fat opposition
What the Conservatives now lack is magnetism. Oppositions draw people: sceptics, activists, the disillusioned. They offer contrast. But the Tories seem a semi-skimmed alternative to Labour, not a full-cream opposition. At a time when the public is demanding sharper divides and clearer choices, a middle path looks bland. The hunger is not for another centre-right variant but for a bold counterpoint to what they see as Labour’s hegemony.
Reform UK looms as the hard-right disruptor, and Badenoch’s strategy seems reactive: mirror their tone and match their rhetoric, but without the same clarity or energy. The danger is that in trying to occupy the same rhetorical ground, the Conservatives will be judged as lesser, watered-down versions of the same thing.
The Conservatives’ current reinvention strategy is both misguided and falling short: they need to reinvent as credible, coherent and distinct, not as “more extreme”.
Why Badenoch is failing (so far)
The Conservative Party’s failure to cut through can be summarised in five key ways:
- Lack of narrative coherence
You cannot lead by declaration alone. Leadership demands that policies hang together – internally consistent, publicly plausible. The policy catalogue feels scattershot and often lacking in groundwork. Voters sniff this out.
- Credibility gap
Badenoch must rebuild trust after 14 years of shifting promises, internal chaos, and policy failures. She inherited more than a weak electoral position – she inherited cynicism. Bold proposals may ring hollow if they appear symbolic rather than operational.
- Strategic confusion over Reform UK
Is Reform a threat to be outflanked, absorbed, battled, or ignored? Badenoch’s approach seems to hedge on all angles. This lack of clear posture allows Reform to lead the narrative.
- Internal discontent
Her own party remains unconvinced. The polling data revealing that half of Tories would prefer a different leader before the next election is existential.
- A weakening base and demographic challenge
The Conservative base is ageing; younger voters are drifting left or to populist alternatives. Badenoch does not yet appear to have a compelling narrative to bridge that divide.
The coming test: do they become relevant or relic?
If this conference is a symbol, then the symbol is trouble. Badenoch will have to manage the questions no one wants to ask: What is the distinct, compelling vision the Tories are offering? Why should disillusioned voters stay? Can she re-energise a fractured base without alienating moderate wings?
If she fails to arrest the drift toward irrelevance, then her “renewal” will be remembered not as a rebirth but as a swansong. The public is reaching for full-fat opposition – bold, coherent, decisive – and so far, the Conservatives appear the substitute. That’s a dangerous place for a mainstream party to occupy.
All eyes are on the Conservative Party Leader for Wednesday’s Leader’s speech – will anyone listen?
