After a by-election had been triggered in Gorton & Denton, all eyes were on Mayor of Greater Manchester, Andy Burnham, who had put his hat in the ring to become the Labour candidate for the seat, which has been viewed as his first step in the process in a bid to take Starmer’s crown.
The issue Burnham faced were the members of Labour’s National Executive Committee (NEC), consisting of Starmer himself and many of his loyalists, who had the job of selecting the candidate in the by-election – however this was just as much of a predicament for the Prime Minister as it was for Burnham, who’s authority is on the line.
If the NEC were to rally against Burnham standing, it simply looks like Starmer is too weak to accept Burnham, and thus the threat he poses to his leadership, into the Parliamentary Labour Party – whilst defying Burnham’s supporters such as Sadiq Khan, Lucy Powell and Angela Rayner.
In typical Keir Starmer fashion, who has struggled with creating his own political blunders, the NEC voted overwhelmingly for Burnham not to stand, which was no doubt a decision driven by the Prime Minister himself.
There have been countless times since Labour took office where the government look back at what they ought to have done after putting themselves in trouble by not thinking through their decisions – with this saga being no different.
Starmer’s only play was to put his entire premiership on the line. If Starmer pushed for the committee to accept Burnham as candidate, then Burnham were to lose that by-election, he is no longer a Prime Minister in waiting but the candidate who lost Labour Gorton & Denton.
Burnham falling in the by-election would not have eradicated the pressure on Starmer, but it will remove one of the key players from the game – he simply cannot afford both Burnham and Streeting simultaneously in the Labour ranks plotting against him. The topic of conversation if Burnham lost the by-election will not be “when will Burnham topple Starmer?”, it will be “how could Starmer lose a Labour stronghold?”.
Of course, the latter is not an ideal question to be charged at a Prime Minister who has been constantly on the ropes since taking office, however the odds of weathering the political storm are much stronger than the former.
Instead of scheming to get to Westminster, he will have had to spend time reconciling with the people of Greater Manchester over the fact he was willing to leave the role he was only recently elected on – the question to him would be if he wanted to serve Manchester through the Commons as he said in his justification for standing, then he should have stood in the general election.
After shaking off Burnham, Starmer must have then moved quickly to keep Health Secretary Wes Streeting in check, who has seemingly been happy to wait to pick the correct moment to pounce for a leadership coupe.
Now with Burnham out of the equation and Starmer weakened, Streeting may think that this is his moment to take the keys to Number 10.
With his decision on Sunday morning, Starmer faces an even steeper uphill battle than what could have unfolded if he let Burnham stand – and may have even provoked the likes of Streeting to now set the motions for a leadership coupe of his own much earlier than what would have been the case due to his decision, which is also a sign of weakness from the PM.
We have seen with Starmer that he is no political mastermind, and very rarely looks to how decisions may pan out in the long term. If he wishes to still be Prime Minister in a year’s time, he will have to swiftly change this habit and approach the coming months with the urgency that it warrants, especially against politically savvy individuals such as Streeting.
Betting against Labour would not have solved Starmer’s woes, but it would have given him a route to survival – which with the current state of play may have been his best-case scenario. Starmer knows if Burnham gets to Westminster, the clock on his premiership begins, whether it be from Streeting or Burnham. If Burnham is defeated, Starmer’s political challenge is getting through the optics losing a Labour stronghold, however taking Burnham out of his list of worries will be seen as a worthwhile price to pay.
Outright blocking Burnham from standing, as the NEC have decided to do, was a bad decision to make; as the optics of doing that are a lot more unforgiveable, especially with characters such as Sadiq Khan and Angela Rayner getting behind Burnham. His problem will then be being in an even weaker position than he was in before, being at odds with Khan and Rayner and the supporters they bring, and most critically with Andy Burnham still in the game.
The only way out for Starmer was to select Burnham as candidate and hope he lost the contest, which presents a much calmer political storm. This way, supporters cannot accuse the PM of being weak by not letting Burnham stand, which will then stand down the uproar from the likes of the Labour Deputy Leader and other supporters of Burnham.
If there has been one thing to observe from this Labour government over the past two years, it has been that they constantly create unnecessary political headaches for themselves, with Starmer more times than not being the mastermind behind this – therefore it is not unlikely that supporters of the Prime Minister, and the Prime Minister himself, will look back in retrospect at the events of recent and thinking he should have handled events differently.
Starmer now faces an outright civil war within the Labour ranks, with both Streeting and Burnham both still in play.
Featured Image via CityCo Manchester