Russia’s use of migration as a weapon is not a theory or an academic abstraction. It is a tactic already in motion, aimed at Europe and ultimately at us in Britain. The latest Henry Jackson Society report shows that Moscow is deliberately pushing waves of migrants towards NATO and EU borders whenever it needs strategic leverage. It is part of the same hybrid strategy Russia has used for twenty years. And if we want peace and stability here at home, we must recognise it for what it is.
Growing up in Russia, I saw first-hand how the Kremlin thinks about power. Children were taught to see the West as a threat. Before bed, I would hurry to the television, sit with my grandma and watch the images go by, scenes telling us every night that NATO and America were the enemies waiting to harm the world. It was deliberate, part of the controlled picture the Kremlin wanted every family to absorb. Anyone outside that picture was treated like a pawn getting in the way of a planned move. That is why today teenagers are arrested for singing songs and pensioners are stopped for holding blank placards on the streets.
When I moved to Britain at seven years old, the contrast was overwhelming. My first memory of Scotland was the wind and the rain and people smiling anyway. People held doors open. They welcomed strangers. There was freedom, kindness and a sense that life could be hopeful. Britain is not perfect, but it is a society built on trust, respect and the rule of law. That difference matters more than many appreciate, which is why it is so bitter to watch the Kremlin now weaponise the very generosity and goodwill that define this country.
This is why Russia’s tactic of instrumentalised migration should concern every one of us. The Kremlin is deliberately using human beings as a political weapon and treating the West as if it cannot recognise the patterns staring it in the face.
The pattern is clear. When Russia suffers heavy battlefield losses, migrant flows towards the EU’s eastern borders surge. When sanctions hit Russia’s oil sector or financial networks, the same thing happens. When Ukraine strikes inside Russia, Moscow answers by pressuring Europe’s borders.
We are not witnessing chaos at Europe’s borders. We are witnessing a calculated strategy aimed at creating anger, overwhelming services and turning migration into a permanent political crisis. Russia knows how powerful that is. Migration already divides countries across Europe. The Home Secretary, Shabana Mahmood, said it herself on Sky News: “Illegal migration is creating division across our country.” It already shapes elections. It already topples governments. For the Kremlin, it is a cheap and effective way to distract from its losses and reset the chessboard without firing a missile.
As governments fall, pro-Russian political movements rise. In France, the National Rally has built support on migration anger while openly admiring Moscow. In Germany, the AfD has grown on the same discontent and has its own history of pro-Russian sympathy. The Kremlin does not need to win arguments when anger does the work for it. Push Europe a little further down the path of frustration and division, and political parties that thrive on chaos do the rest.
The report shows that the Kremlin pushes more migrants from far-away countries with weak passports. Many of these individuals could never enter Russia freely without state permission. Their presence is not organic. It is part of a wider operation to test and weaken the European border.
Belarus is deeply involved. When Belarus was sanctioned, it drove migrants to the Polish and Lithuanian borders. Today, when Belarus is hit economically or politically, we see the same pattern again. This is coordinated behaviour by two authoritarian states pursuing the same goal.
For Britain, this matters directly. The idea that we are insulated because we are an island is comforting but wrong. What happens on the EU’s borders reaches our politics within days. We saw it during the 2015 crisis. We see it every day now with small boat crossings. Russia understands this. It relies on anger. It relies on panic. It relies on Western governments who still underestimate the strategy.
As someone who grew up in Russia and now works in British public life, I know both worlds. Many in the West like to imagine Vladimir Putin as unpredictable or irrational. That view is comforting rather than accurate. The truth is simpler. Putin is patient. He is strategic. He searches for weak points and exploits them. Russian children grew up learning chess. Today many of them sit in the Kremlin, still playing the same game, not with wooden pieces but with human lives.
So what should Britain do?
Firstly, we must strengthen cooperation with NATO allies and with FRONTEX. The report shows that migration surges are predictable. We know the triggers: heavy Russian losses, sanctions on the oil sector and Ukrainian strikes. Border authorities should be preparing in advance rather than responding after the fact.
Secondly, Britain should support stronger open-source monitoring of Russian battlefield losses. Russia hides its casualties, but independent data exists and can be used to identify early warning signs.
Thirdly, we must improve public communication. Russia thrives on confusion. We need clear, honest explanations for the public when migration surges occur so that fear cannot be exploited.
Finally, we must work with our European partners, not against them. Russia loves division and feeds on chaos. We cannot allow anger and mistrust to result in a weaker Britain.
Photo by Alecsandra Dragoi / Home Office
