Rhodri ab Owen
Managing Director of CamlasRhodri ab Owen, Managing Director of Camlas, writes on yesterday’s by-election in Caerphilly: how the result is a bolstering cause for hope for Plaid Cymru, how it has dealt a blow to Reform UK, and why Labour may ‘face a total wipeout’ in May.
Plaid storms to victory in Caerphilly
With a yellow weather warning in place, nerves were high in Caerphilly as storm Benjamin struck on polling day. Many were concerned that it would dampen turnout in the seat, which was expected to go to a nail-biting finish between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK. In the end, Plaid Cymru stormed to victory with a turnout figure of 50.43%, which meant that for the first time ever a devolved election in Wales achieved a turnout of more than 50%.
It was 14th time lucky for Plaid Cymru’s candidate, Lindsay Whittle, who first stood in the 1983 General Election for Caerphilly. When he is sworn in as the new Senedd Member, he will only hold the seat for six months. The Senedd election next May will bring with it a new voting system and new constituencies. However, this by-election was seen as a barometer of the state of Welsh politics, and it certainly offered a clear signal that long standing political patterns in Wales are under immense pressures.
A catastrophic result for Labour
If yesterday’s result was replicated in May, Labour would be facing a total wipeout under the new Senedd electoral system.
There is no hiding from this result for Labour, a party which has been such a dominant force in the area. They have held the Caerphilly seat at every single election since 1918, with substantial majorities. The old adage of weighing votes for Labour applied here. Trailing in a poor third place will be a traumatic result for the party.
The blame game has already started, with many turning their anger towards the UK Government and calling on First Minister Eluned Morgan to draw a clearer distinction between Welsh Labour and the ever increasingly unpopular UK Labour party. She has tried, but so far failed to do so, and the pressure will be on for stronger leadership and a more distinctive Welsh way of doing business.
This result also means that currently, Labour holds 29 out of the 60 Senedd seats, making it even harder for the party to pass its 2026/27 budget. There will be months of negotiations ahead for Eluned Morgan, as she tries to reach agreement with the opposition parties.
‘If yesterday’s result was replicated in May, Labour would be facing a total wipeout under the new Senedd electoral system’ ~ Rhodri ab Owen
A Government in waiting
Plaid Cymru will be delighted with the scale of this victory in what was predicted to be a tight race. This historic win for the party will solidify Plaid’s leader Rhun ap Iorwerth’s position as the First Minister in waiting in Wales, and this will be a launchpad to that campaign. Recent polls had seen Plaid neck and neck with Reform UK and the party’s strategy of positioning themselves as the only credible alternative to Farage’s party paid dividend in Caerphilly – a strategy they will seek to replicate in the months ahead to May.
Disappointment for Reform
Reform UK will also be disappointed with this result, despite a decent second position. With high expectations, the party poured money and resource into the constituency, with numerous visits from Nigel Farage and senior party figures. Attacks from Plaid and Labour around Russian bribes to former high-profile party member, Nathan Gill, seem to have impacted their candidate, Llyr Powell, who also worked for Mr Gill as a caseworker during his time as an MEP. Their ambitions to be the largest party in the Senedd will have been dealt a knock in the early hours of this morning and a period of reflection will be needed for the party.
‘Without a shadow of a doubt, there appears to be a realignment of Welsh politics’ ~ Rhodri ab Owen
Realignment of Welsh politics
Without a shadow of a doubt, there appears to be a realignment of Welsh politics. The Caerphilly by-election result replicated what opinion polls have been saying for some time in Wales, that over a century of Labour’s dominance is coming to an end. It’s difficult to imagine what the party can do with only six months to go until the May election, to turn the tide back in its favour. The Caerphilly by-election really is a transformational moment in Welsh electoral politics.
