With the Vice President securing the majority of delegates going into the DNC next month, Harris will almost certainly face off against Trump in November. What does a Harris administration mean for the UK?
For the second most powerful person in America, Kamala Harris’ foreign policy is somewhat of a political unknown.
With only three years in the Senate, Harris has had little of an opportunity to define herself independently of Joe Biden. In her time as Vice President, however, she has consistently upheld the President’s stance on key issues.
Kamala Harris has generally positioned herself as being the continuity candidate for Biden’s foreign policy. This is likely a safe strategy for the election, in which her nomination has more to do with objections to the President’s age rather than specific policies.
Regardless of who wins, 2024 will see a new President in the White House. Will Harris’ mean just be another four years of Biden for the UK, or will the ‘special relationship’ change?
Trade
With US-UK trade valued at £223 billion, a trade deal with the USA has been a top priority of post-Brexit governments.
In 2017, a newly elected Trump announced that he was working on a “major trade deal” with the UK. Seven years and two presidents later, no such trade deal has arrived.
Despite Trump’s protectionism, it was hoped by many that Trump would support a trade deal with the UK, as the president pledged support for a “massive” trade deal following Boris Johnson’s election as Prime Minister.
It was speculated that Brexit’s perceived ideological affinity with the President was a driving factor in the president’s decision. However, despite fast-tracking negotiations, neither side was able to come to a compromise on the UK’s high regulatory standards.
Regarding trade, Biden’s presidency was even worse for the UK.
Biden saw similar parallels between Trump and the Prime Minister, calling Johnson “a physical and emotional clone” of Donald Trump in 2019. Commentators speculated that incoming senior democrats would be “looking for revenge on Johnson” for his perceived role in global populism.
In contrast to Trump’s support for a hard Brexit, Biden made clear that he would not support a free trade agreement due to the UK’s potential violation of the Northern Ireland protocol.
More generally, Biden has run a significantly more protectionist administration than was expected.
So far, Republicans have shown more support for a trade deal than Democrats. Under Sunak, the UK signed a number of memorandums with Republican states, ensuring greater market access for the UK.
Whilst improving ties due to the UK’s support for Ukraine led to the announcement of a ‘Foundational Trade Agreement’ October of last year, the deal fell through two months later.
Will things be different under Kamala Harris? There are good reasons to think so.
Firstly, ideological comparisons with Trump have hampered the willingness of democrats to support a trade deal with the UK. With Harris potentially entering office alongside a British administration with which it shares ideological affinity, this major block will be eliminated.
Secondly, Harris may not be as protectionist as her two predecessors. In a rally this week, Politico reported that she acknowledged the potential for “wiggle room” on Trump and Biden’s strong tariff policy.
Whilst several of her statements indicate support for a degree of protectionism, there is some reason to think that a trade deal will be more achievable under her than Trump or Biden.
Although former Trump advisor Robert Greenway has claimed that a UK-US deal would be a “priority” of a second Trump administration, Labour have indicated an unwillingness to budge on the food standards dispute that killed Trump’s last proposed deal.
Defence
In contrast to her republican opponents, Kamala Harris has been a stalwart defender of Ukraine. In every Munich Security conference that she has attended, she has consistently stated that she would “stand with Ukraine”.
Harris has condemned isolationist Republicans not just domestically, but internationally, directly calling out Republicans as wanting to “abandon commitments to our allies in favour of unilateral action” this year in Munich.
Harris has consistently been a leading proponent of the Biden administration’s position on Ukraine, being the first senior American official to argue at an international summit that Russia had committed crimes against Humanity in Ukraine, following Biden’s comments to that effect.
Whilst the Telegraph has argued that Trump and Vance’s threats against NATO countries will scare them into higher spending, whereas Harris‘ defence of members that don’t meet the target will leave the alliance weaker, this seems unlikely.
Trump’s pledge to allow Russia to invade NATO members not paying 2% isn’t a bluff meant to encourage members to pay more, but genuinely indicative of his attitude. There is significant evidence to suggest that in 2018 and 2019, Trump made various attempts to withdraw from the alliance.
Although an America that will continue to uphold NATO is undeniably good news for the UK, cynically there are some downsides for the UK.
As explained in a previous article, the fears of a potential American withdrawal from NATO in the run-up to the US Presidential election in November are making continental allies more receptive to the United Kingdom as a defence ally, encouraging broader cooperation on migration and trade.
However, even from a more cynical self-interest, a strong NATO has direct benefits for the government and the country. Renewed American support will relieve pressure on Starmer to meet his “cast-iron” promise of a defence increase to 2.5%, something that is currently fiscally difficult.
Beyond immediate political and national interest, the UK government and most British people are strongly committed to ensuring a secure and democratic Europe. Nothing indicates that a Harris administration would uphold this objective any less than her predecessor.
Final Thought
Following Biden’s withdrawal, Starmer did not express an opinion on the upcoming US election. Whilst praising the security commitments of the Biden administration, Starmer stated that he would “work with whoever the American people elect” and emphasised the UK and USA’s “special relationship” over ideological ties.
However, with Labour Ministers publicly condemning comments made by Trump’s Vice Presidential candidate, it’s difficult to believe that Starmer truly has no preference.
Kamala Harris will offer significant continuity with Biden, especially on defence, but a Harris administration could offer improvement on the long-promised US-UK trade deal.
For more of Chamber UK’s American analysis please click here.
This article was written by Chamber UK’s features writer – Alex Connor.