Craig Lawton
Head of Public Affairs, Grasshopper CommunicationsCraig Lawton discusses the Welsh leadership contest.
While the impending General Election is a key talking point for many, in less than two months’ time there will be a new person leading the Welsh Government.
December last year saw Mark Drakeford announce his intention to step down as First Minister. With the result of the Welsh Labour leadership contest expected in March, Wales will have a new First Minister by Easter. Despite Welsh Labour choosing a nomination process that could have allowed a significant number of contenders to get on the final ballot, just two MSs from the 30 strong Welsh Labour group put themselves forward. Welsh Labour members now have a choice between Economy Minister Vaughan Gething and Education Minister Jeremy Miles.
Representation
Even before nominations closed it was clear that Gething and Miles had hoovered up the majority of nominations, stopping a third candidate joining the race. While the notable absence of any women from the shortlist has undoubtedly led to questions, this is not the first time such a discussion has been had. During the last contest, in 2018, only a late nomination from outgoing First Minister Carwyn Jones- who had initially signaled his intend to remain neutral- ensured Eluned Morgan could enter the race as the only woman. Representation clearly remains on the minds of the candidates however, with both appointing at least one woman as the co-chairs of their respective campaigns.
Representation, however, comes in many forms; and one of the most hotly discussed in Welsh Labour circles is the North-South divide. With both Gething and Miles representing constituencies within the South Wales M4 corridor, they know it is critical they appeal to Labour members- and voters more generally- across the rest of Wales. This will not only be crucial to winning this contest, but to Welsh Labour’s hopes of winning back North Wales constituencies that turned blue at the last General Election. While the First Minister will again be male, something that Wales has seen since devolution in 1999, there will nonetheless be a “first” achieved. Wales will either be led for the first time by a black First Minister or by a gay First Minister; and their experiences could be key to the policies they take forward.
Policy
While both campaigns are releasing their full manifestos in the coming days, we need to look back some considerable time to get a glimpse of their more personal policy interest. This is because, despite their combined time in frontline elected politics amounting to over 20 years, both entered Cabinet shortly after they were each elected. The result is that there has been little coverage of their personally held policy aims in recent years. Before his appointment as Counsel General in November 2017, as a back-bencher Miles was actively discussing the role that local authorities and community groups could play in energy generation. Something which is now reflected in Welsh Government’s Co-operation Agreement with Plaid Cymru.
While the Senedd Reform Bill- which will increase the number of MSs and change the Senedd voting system- is now making its way through the Senedd, Miles was calling for greater public engagement and political education back in 2016. Similarly, Gething has been a long-time campaigner for greater voter engagement, in particular with under-represented groups. As a Cardiff councillor for Butetown, he represented a population made up of over 50 different nationalities. During this time he also chaired the cross-party Right to Vote group which encouraged greater participation from black minority ethnic communities in Welsh public life.
One thing we do know for sure from their time in Cabinet is that neither Gething nor Miles are afraid to make difficult decisions and stand up to criticism. For Miles this includes when, in September 2022, he launched new guidance on the mandatory teaching of relationship and sexuality education to children in Wales, despite initially being challenged by some parent groups. Something he eventually saw off in the Court of Appeal. Gething’s decisions as Health Minister during the first half of the pandemic have arguably received more scrutiny than any other Welsh Government Minister to date. Whether those decisions turned out to be correct or note, he can certainly not be accused of shying away from making tough choices when called upon.
The campaign
As candidates release fully formed manifestos and begin to take their Labour members across Wales in the coming weeks, we are sure to get greater detail and, with that, increased levels of scrutiny. Until then, while we can say with certainty that Wales’ new First Minister will be another lawyer from South Wales lawyer, they will undoubtedly also be breaking new ground in Welsh politics.
