In the second half of 2024, a political stalemate had hit Westminster. The new Government was getting to grips with Whitehall mechanics and navigating the civil service, the Conservatives faced a leadership election and other major parties adapted to their respective new political weightings in Parliament. As Labour blamed the Conservatives for economic mismanagement and failing public services, Westminster awaited eagerly for details on significant policy announcements.
In the new year, however, the 6-month post-General Election reshaping of UK Politics will now be finished, and the ‘blame the previous Government’ strategy will increasingly fall on deaf ears. The Government will now need a strong set of plans to change the country and win over the electorate – the latter being a priority, with falling popularity for the Labour Party in 2024. So, with this new year having begun, what’s coming to Westminster in this new year.
New Year, New Spending Review
An event almost as significant as the budget, but likely far less notorious than it, the spending review will outline budget plans for Government Departments (including the NHS or schools) over the coming years.
Originally, the spending review was planned to be announced in Spring 2025, for the years ahead (department spending for 2024-25 had been decided in the Autumn 2025 Budget as ‘phase 1’ of the spending review). However, recent announcements by Treasury Ministers have built on the rumours of a delayed spending review (from Spring to June of this new year), even though the Government website, at the time of writing, still confirms ‘late Spring’ for phase 2 of the spending review.
On 10th December 2024, Darren Jones MP, Chief Secretary to the Treasury announced a six month -line by line’ review of the UK’s public expenditure, with further measures to keep ministers from breaking their budgets. The Treasury team also announced measures to crack down on waste, with targets to save 5% on budgets through efficiency gains.
But in the face of public services needing investment, and each Secretary of State keen to make a mark in the work they are responsible for, how will the Jones and Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ fiscal hawkishness be received? Would the Ministry for Defence accept a decrease in funding whilst advocating for more support for Ukraine? Would the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero accept lower financial support for the green transition and risk missing key climate targets? Or would the Health Secretary, under the careful judgements made by Lord Darzi in his Independent Investigation of the NHS in England, be satisfied without the many £billions the NHS needs?
NHS 10-year plan
The 10 Year Health Plan is a Department of Health and Social Care-led process to set out the Government’s vision for the health service (with a large part being reform of the NHS). The process has so far included two significant milestones:
- The Independent Investigation of the National Health Service in England (authored by Lord Ara Darzi), which contained authoritative recommendations centred around three shifts (moving care from hospital to community, analogue to digital and treatment to prevention)
- The ‘Change NHS’ online portal, where people across the UK could come together and share ideas for improving the NHS (with a creative suggestion of ‘incorporating the Daleks into the NHS’.
In the new year, however, the meat on the bones is expected, with Health Secretary Wes Streeting outlining the Government’s plan for England. With the NHS being one of the big three policy areas voters care the most about (the other two being immigration and the economy/cost of living), expect this to be a pivotal moment with Westminster hacks and lobbyists paying particular attention.
Whilst this plan will contain significant policy measures for healthcare in England, it will likely only begin further work on healthcare. In partnership with Curia’s Health, Care, and Life Sciences Research Group, Chamber UK will be delivering a series of regional conferences with the NHS Innovation Accelerator and regional ICBs and ICSs, to explore how best to implement innovations within care systems. Find out more about our March 2025 Conference here.
Local and Mayoral Elections in the New Year
One of the more significant plans already in motion for this new year was the Government’s reshaping of the devolution and local governance. In the middle of December 2024, Deputy Prime Minister and Secretary of State for Housing, Communities and Local Government, Angela Rayner MP, announced the ‘Devolution Revolution’, not only increasing the powers given to mayors on housing, transport and skills, but also increasing the number of mayors to cover the whole of England.
But with this plan, which has been met both with great praise and great critique, even across party lines, comes the inevitable need to adapt elections to the redesigned electoral systems. The Government White Paper on this devolution revolution has pointed out that some councils may choose to postpone elections if appropriate, with Minister of State Jim McMahon suggesting some may be delayed by a year.
However, this has been met with some public backlash, with misleading suggestions on social media of ‘mass cancellations’ of elections (as occurred in World War Two). These social media posts have since been largely debunked, with ministers highlighting that delays would need to be requested by councils themselves (not forced by Government), and that delays would not last longer than a year (as was done in 2020/2021 for local elections).
What is interesting to note is the electoral maths of the May 2025 local elections, where 1,311 incumbent councillors will be Conservative, compared to 350 for Labour, 313 for the Liberal Democrats and <100 for other parties. As the first key electoral test of the Labour Government, a delay could offer valuable time for Labour to rebuild support amongst the electorate and save themselves a difficult few months defending bad results. That being said, polling experts still expect a bad election day for the Conservatives, with the seats up for election having previously been competed for in 2021 (before the turmoil of Partygate, and the unpopular leaderships of Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak).
The Battle for Local Government
Regardless of the date of the local elections in this new year, one thing is clear: the makeup of our Local Government will change.
- For Labour, they will look to balance expected gains (with the seats up for grabs being largely conservative held) against a deep unpopularity with the national government.
- The Conservatives will mirror Labour, aiming to capitalise on their unpopularity whilst turning a page on their past few years in Government (and battling off threats from other political parties).
- The Liberal Democrats, for their part, will aim to relive their May 2024 Local Election success, where they came second by number of councillors elected (ahead of the Conservatives).
- Reform UK will look to continue their ability to pick up disaffected Conservative voters (and councillors, with Reform UK leader Farage having sent out a plea to Conservative councillors to defect to his party, which was met with a handful of defections in late 2024)
- Finally, the Greens will look to build up networks in key localities, having themselves had strong performances in recent elections.
Beyond a good opportunity for pictures and a press release, becoming a force in local government is an important precursor to electoral results down the line.
Councillors and local activists provide much of the legwork that local parties yearn for in crunch elections, whilst significant changes in political allegiances can affect the support and influence that parties receive and exert in the Local Government Association: the major political organisation representing local government. Lastly, control of boroughs or significant influence can also, of course, lead to tangible change for local people and build support networks for others. and build support networks for others.
Final Thought
Whilst Westminster may have had no rest in the build up to the General Election (and throughout the General Election, as well as after the General Election, for that matter), those hoping that the new year would be comparatively quieter may be disappointed. A number of significant policy measures, as well as an important electoral cycle, mean that 2025 will be yet another year to watch. Stay on top of politics this year with a New Year’s resolution to subscriber to Chamber UK’s Newsletter.
