Last nights by-election result in North Shropshire has sent shockwaves through Westminster. One Tory Party grandee said this morning “I expected a loss, but didn’t see us losing this badly.” With days until Christmas, the Prime Minister is coming under increasing pressure to shift gear in the New Year to take back control of the situation and change course.
Liberal Democrats win big:
At the 2019 general Election, Helen Morgan won just 5,643 votes and yesterday saw that number rise 17,957 – more than 47% of the total. For the by-election geeks in the room, that is the seventh biggest swing in a by-election since World War Two.
After the other shock by-election result in Chesham and Amersham earlier in the year, the Liberal Democrats have moved from 12 to 13 MPs. The seats are different, but in both campaigns the Liberal Democrats and Labour campaigned on Conservative voters being taken for granted. With the Conservatives focusing on the “levelling-up” agenda, there is a feeling in seats around the country that money once directed to their constituencies is now being directed to “red-wall” areas in the Midlands and Northern England. In the New Year, the Prime Minister will be hoping to reset the agenda by launching his new Levelling-up plans. Of course, this could exacerbate the concerns of southern MPs even further. Therefore, the Prime Minister needs to demonstrate that levelling-up is as much for High Peak as it is for Hampshire.
In a bizarre tradition, the winning candidate Helen Morgan used a yellow stick to burst a blue balloon marked “Boris’ bubble” held by former Lib Dem leader Tim Farron.
Party-gate:
Election expert, Sir John Curtice said the Conservatives are suffering in the wake of “party gate”, with voters upset at the way that the Prime Minister and Number 10 have handled the situation. Conservative MPs are extremely unhappy at seeing the polls unravel for the Prime Minister given the successful rollout of the vaccine earlier in the year, with one MP saying this was “self-inflicted.”
Final Thought:
For Tory MPs, “now is the winter of our discontent.” All it takes is 54 letters to be posted (or now emailed) to Sir Graham Brady, Chair of the 1922 Committee for there to be a leadership election in the Conservative Party. The Party is ruthless when it comes to leaders, Thatcher, May and now Johnson, there is a fear amongst many MPs and Ministers that the electoral asset has now become a liability. As MPs go on their Christmas break, Johnson will need to rethink his strategy and come back refreshed in the New Year otherwise Boris may go down in history as another Richard III.
