Last weekend’s security conference in Munich has been described as “the end of an era” by many outlets describing the end of European security as we have known it since World War Two.
Here are some of the key takeaways from the conference.
Donald Trump and NATO
The North Atlantic Treaty Organization was founded partly to stop Soviet expansion into Europe and to forbid “the revival of nationalist militarism”. The main agreement of the treaty is that if one country is attacked, the rest will defend it. Although still in NATO, Donald Trump’s demands threaten the organisation. He has suggested the European members of NATO should increase their national spending on defence and that he will cut US funding. NATO now mandates that countries contribute 2% of their GDP, a number expected to increase to 3% to accommodate for new spending.
Funding for Ukraine
The new US Defence Secretary, Pete Hegseth, made several statements about the United States’ involvement in the Ukraine war. This is clear signaling of the new Trump administration’s stance on the war, with Hegseth saying that it is “unrealistic” for Ukraine to expect to return to its pre-2014 borders and that Europe should be the one to provide the majority of funding to support Ukraine.
Negotiations to end the war in Ukraine will begin this week in Saudi Arabia, even though no European states or Ukraine were invited to take part in the talks. President Volodymyr Zelensky has stated on numerous occasions that he will not accept a deal made in his absence.
JD Vance’s speech
The US Vice-President’s speech turned out to be an attack on the EU and UK’s policies and democracies, garnering backlash from many European leaders. He echoed Trump’s claims by saying Europe has to “step up in a big way to provide for its own defence”. He also spent a long time attacking Europe’s leaders by saying they have departed from their “fundamental values” and that they are ignoring citizens’ concerns about immigration and free speech. He also brought up Romania’s recent presidential elections, which were annulled due to alleged Russian interference. He claimed that “If your democracy can be destroyed with a few $100,000 of digital advertising from a foreign country, then it wasn’t very strong to begin with”.
The future of European security
U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth stated last week that “our message is so stark to our European allies — now is the time to invest because you can’t make an assumption that America’s presence will last forever”. Europe might now face a future where spending on defence will have to rise substantially and not rely on the United States’ protection. Donald Trump’s position might weaken Europe’s security, driving countries to a position where they have to pick between his side and the European one. This and US trade tariffs are putting countries like the UK in a difficult position, with UK prime minister Keir Starmer saying that the UK is “not choosing between the US and the EU”.
In the future, a European Union army might be constructed, with immense defense spending to come, projected at anywhere between 5 to 11%. Further talks might be held by the European Commission this week in this regard. The French foreign minister stated that “We will have to face difficult days, make complicated decisions and even sacrifices which we weren’t expecting until now to ensure this security”. EU Enlargement Commissioner, Marta Kos, mentioned a possible rapid accession of Albania and Montenegro to the European Union, in an effort to include the Western Balkans and Moldova in the security talks.
In his closing speech, the chairman of the Munich Security Conference brought up JD Vance’s speech, saying that “we have to fear that our common value base is not that common anymore”.
