The Prime Minister entered Downing Street in July last year with a historic majority, and seemingly a strong mandate to govern. Not even a year later, Starmer finds himself in a precarious position with his popularity ratings plummeting, as well as both his agenda and authority in question. Many described the election victory as Blair like, although the government has lost all the momentum that they attained during the election campaign to now become detached from this label. Last week I addressed the lack of directive of the Labour government, with the Chancellor’s growth speech giving the government’s agenda a lifeline. Surprisingly, after a brief period where her position was questioned, the Chancellor seems to be in the driving seat of this government, not the Prime Minister.
Starmer declared on the steps of Number 10 back in July that he will make his government more about tending to the job at hand rather than creating political fiascos which will distract from the work that needs to be done; but for the Prime Minister to not be the centre driving force for the government’s agenda is somewhat politically suicidal. Time and again we see Starmer the lawyer instead of Starmer the politician, which at times has many merits, however when the time comes to fight the next election Starmer cannot play it the same way he did to win the first. The Prime Minister needs to have a track record of authority on the agenda and not let other Cabinet Ministers be that centre driving force.
It’s not just the British people the Prime Minister has to contend with, but those closest to him, such as the Health Secretary, who may be looking for opportunities to move up the ranks themselves. If Starmer continues as Prime Minister letting the traits of a lawyer prevail over that of a politician, he could be blinded to the harsh political reality of Westminster. We have seen Starmer in recent months change his approach at PMQs by taking a much more aggressive stance against Badenoch, something his closest team is most likely probing him to do; but the danger is coming off in a way which is arrogant or patronising in his attempt to quash the opposition charges.
The change in directive may be down to the change of the Prime Minister’s chief of staff to Morgan McSweeney, who is possibly attempting to keep Badenoch at bay before the Conservatives gain any momentum in opposition – despite the PM’s best efforts the polls suggest some progress has certainly been made in the Tory camp. What Starmer needs to be doing is taking the reins of this Labour administration and remember the political game he has to play.
At the very start of his premiership Starmer was ruthless with the whip, removing it from backbenchers who defied the party line in the vote regarding the two-child benefit cap. This action was to show his party, many of whom had only been in parliament for a matter of months, that he was in command. Although demonstrating a sense of control was an important action here for the sake of party discipline, he has to also take control of his policy narrative and be that figurehead at the forefront of it. The most effective means to do this is by showing you understand the most pressing issues of the day and have the capability to tackle them.
If we look at a recent example were the Prime Minister can be seen to be on the backfoot, such as with private school fees, it may be the case that Starmer saw it through mostly unscathed, but there is still reason for concern as for something that was a flagship policy, it has seemed to have done more harm than good for the Prime Minister’s control of the narrative and the overall direction of the government. Labour’s agenda needs to be politically cautious, especially since there are threats coming from three different directions from the opposition benches, with the main threat as of present being from Reform UK, who have continued to gain massive amounts of momentum going into the first year of this Parliament.
At first glance it may seem that Reform are a distant threat, as there are still many years left until the next election. In an actual fact they can politically still cause major damage for the government. In the case that any by- election is called, Reform UK will be the ones who will have the political capital to come out on top, as well as knowing that a by- election win will extend their political momentum which currently only has a basis due to social media graphics and picking fights wherever they can – they will be looking to find something much more politically expansive when they can. If the Prime Minister doesn’t deal with Reform in a different way than the snares towards them in PMQs, he may extend the political damage they will cause, all on his own accord.
The Prime Minister must already look ahead to the next election and realise it will weigh heavily on the optics portrayed in his first term in office. Winning his first election was always going to be easier than winning two consecutive elections. Starmer was exactly what the electorate wanted at that specific time: something refreshing from Conservative governments. Now, instead of being judged on if he is merely something different, he will be judged on his record of delivery and the actual substance of his premiership. If the Labour ranks don’t believe that he has delivered good optics for the next election, they may look to take him down.
