Polls in the weeks building up to General Elections have been known to jump around. In 2017, the Conservatives polled at just under 50% of the popular vote, flying ahead of Labour, who hovered at 25%. The result ended up coming to 43.5% for the Conservatives, and 41% for Labour. In this 2024 General Election, one party making steady advances in the polls have been the Liberal Democrats, one of only two parties (alongside Reform UK), to have a positive trend in the polls along the General Election campaign.
Chamber UK caught up with two Lib Dem candidates hoping to make it to Parliament on the 4th July, Bobby Dean from Carshalton and Wallington, and Marie Goldman from Chelmsford. The full list of candidates standing in Carshalton and Wallington can be found here, and those standing in Chelmsford can be found here.
The Campaign in Carshalton and Wallington
In Carshalton and Wallington, the Liberal Democrats came 628 votes short of winning the seat in 2019. Facing an unpopular Conservative Party, and with the Liberal Democrats holding almost all the council wards in the seat, Bobby Dean hopes to add a new MP to the Liberal Democrat stronghold in South West London.
But whilst a relatively small hurdle of 628 votes might seem like a welcome challenge, especially considering those candidates fighting from >10,000 votes behind, the truth is that a slim margin might have drawbacks too.
After speaking with Bobby about policies including NHS and Social Care, the local and his would-be private members bill on kinship care, we got on to the topic of voters themselves: a mixture of apathy towards politics, and with pollsters predicting a large lead for the Liberal Democrats, would voter turnout end up being low, and cost Bobby the seat? He said:
‘there’s a group of people who are completely apathetic to politics in general and feel let down by all the politicians politicians and we have to work hard to convince them to trust us this time’
– Bobby Dean
Speaking on Ed Davey’s own campaigning and the many stunts being held across the country (Bobby himself joined stunts in Thorpe Park and making jam), Bobby mentioned the importance and effectiveness of getting the message across after these stunts, with policies on social care, water regulation (including a blue flag status and 16% tax on water companies) being popular with the electorate.
More generally, polls from Ipsos, BMG and YouGov have shown steady increase in the Liberal Democrat/Ed Davey favourability, although the leader does still have an incognito streak to overcome, with over 50% of voters not knowing who he is.
The Campaign in Chelmsford
Meanwhile, in Essex, Liberal Democrat candidate for Chelmsford, Marie Goldman, hopes to overturn a 17,621 majority (with the 2019 result coming at 55.9% for Conservative Vicky Ford, with 25.1% for Goldman).
Once again, the national Liberal Democrat messages here came through, with Marie discussing the importance of supporting the NHS and getting more GPs into the system, as well as supporting people with the cost of living and the need to build more houses and build communities
With her background as Deputy Leader of the Chelmsford City Council, Marie spoke specifically on support for SEND children and the inefficiencies in government that mean that young people don’t get the support they need. On one piece of casework, she said:
‘they need a specialist paediatric appointment for their two year old daughter … there was a 16-18 month waiting list’
– Marie Goldman
With this 2024 battle once again pitting Marie against incumbent Conservative MP Vicky Ford, we talked with Marie about how the considerable swing needed for the Lib Dems would form. Alongside Tory-Lib Dem switch voters, Marie highlighted the importance of tactical voting and Labour voters lending the Lib Dems their vote (an estimated 25% of Labour voters would be willing to switch to the Liberal Democrats in seats where Labour cannot win).
In many marginal seats like Chelmsford, tactical voting has become a far bigger issue, with this being seen in the strategies of political parties and media outlets. Whilst most tactical voting sites have focussed on voting the Conservatives out, some like the Daily Mail have suggested votes for Reform UK and the Conservatives, in opposition to parties including Labour and the Liberal Democrats.
A Campaign on Two Fronts
Whilst both Marie Goldman and Bobby Dean have benefited from long-term campaigning, and have both been assumed as high up on the Liberal Democrats’ secretive ’target seat’ list, the collapse of the Conservative vote has led some candidates to campaign intensely in this short campaign, hoping to follow shocking new polls that have put the Liberal Democrats above the Conservatives in number of seats.
However, Liberal Democrat HQ has remained reserved in its willingness to throw resources at seats which have only recently ramped up their campaigning. In 2019, a poll bounce, matched with optimism about reversing Brexit, led to Liberal Democrats targeting 80 seats across the country. They ended up with 11 seats after that General Election (with the over-targeting strategy of the party being explicitly critiqued by the Party’s post-2019 general election review).
Keen not to repeat those same mistakes, Liberal Democrat HQ have maintained the doubling of their parliamentary seats (from 15 to 30) as a good night, especially if it means securing 3rd party status from the SNP.
Ensuring strict party discipline when it comes to targeting resources, whilst also generating momentum for the Liberal Democrat campaign is another challenge for this General Election. Whilst a Liberal Democrat leader of the opposition would send shockwaves in UK politics, the comparison to Jo Swinson being touted as ’the UK’s next PM’, only to end up losing her own seat, is one that rests in the back of Lib Dem campaigners’ minds.
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