After HTS militias deposed Assad in December, their leader Ahmad al-Sharaa proclaimed he would work with Syria’s various minorities. However there was much anxiety about whether his government would be able to contain acts of revenge against the Alawites. 

Over the following weeks and months, sectarian violence broke out occasionally, and there were raids in the Alawite territory by government forces in the weeks leading up to the recent escalation. 
Al-Sharaa says he is trying to establish order, disarm militias and bring people complicit in the Assad regime to justice.

Yet, Alawites tell an entirely different story of the last few months. Israfil Erbil, the founder of the British Alevi Foundation, an organization representing thousands of Alawites in the UK, sees his community as the victim: “Alawites were celebrating when Assad fell, his rule was largely propped up by Sunnis and other groups.”

“Framing us as Assad supporters, and this whole thing as Assad loyalists fighting the new government is wrong. We also just want peace.”

Other Alawites agree. Mohamed- not his real name- lives in London. He left the country 15 years ago to live abroad as an artist, but keeps in close contact with his mother, sister and her kids, who still live there.

When Assad fell in December, Mohamed says he had high hopes for the new government- but then was quickly disillusioned by what his family and friends were telling him.

He said: “Alawites were fired from their jobs, even those who never supported Assad” he recalls, “”only because they are Alawites.”

The new government has been accused of firing Alawites who were not affiliated with Assad from their jobs based solely on their ethnicity. 

Then, a few weeks ago, Mohamed says a friend found graffiti on her Alawite family’s house. It said: “We are coming to get you.”

He said he tried to convince his relatives to leave the country after this, but his mother refused: “She kept telling me that she has no enemies, who would harm her and her little granddaughters?”

The Washington Post quotes Alawite leaders saying that some in the community started arming themselves as a form of self-defence amidst these growing threats. Mohamed says there were also some peaceful protests, largely fueled by the firing of Alawites from their jobs, as many families were left without an income. He says the government treated these protests as justification to attack the Alawites, the reason for last week’s escalation.

Contradicting that, the Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, believed to be relatively unbiased, said the initial outbreak of fighting occurred after government forces had tried to arrest a wanted man in the city of Jableh, and were then ambushed. The government reaffirms this, and speaks of a “coordinated attack” by Alawite militias and Assad loyalists.

There is no way to independently verify the government’s or the Alawites’ version of events as to why the violence escalated last Thursday, and who attacked who. But when the fighting started, for Mohamed and many other Alawites, hell began.

He was suddenly receiving messages about people being killed in his old hometown. Soon, he learned in a call that his cousin Sawsan and her two children, 11 year old Farah and 15 year old Khodr, had been killed by gunmen. They were shot in their own house, Mohamed says, unprovoked.

Her sister describes 52-year-old Sawsan as a kind and hospitable lady, always happy to host people in her house in the coastal city of Baniya: “When I opened the door, she and her children would always run to greet me. Sawsan lightened up Baniya.”

Later, Mohamed found out that Sawsan’s older brother, Munzer, had also been killed, along with his teenage son Yaqub. Munzer, his sister says, was also known for his hospitality, often welcoming refugees into his home. Mohamed says nobody in the family was ever involved in any kind of uprising against the government: “They were just Alawites.”

Distraught, Mohamed tried to reach out to his mother, with no success. Grieving the loss of his cousins, but even more sick with worry about his mother, sister, nieces and nephews, he started a Facebook page aimed at identifying those who had been killed, and notifying their families abroad.

Since then, the group has also become an outlet for people to share their grief.

He’s also been aiming to use the platform to raise awareness for the Alawites’ suffering with foreign media. Mohamed said: “It’s a window to the outside world.”

While he had still not heard from his mother by last Friday [March 9th], Mohamed was sent hundreds of messages and pictures from people who were mourning their killed relatives.

Hazem Hamamh, a plastic surgeon from the city of Latakia, was notified that his parents and his sister Tala had been killed, also in the city of Baniya. Tala had recently graduated from University with a degree in pharmacology, and Hazem’s mother, Khaledia, and his father, Muhi, were educators. Hazem says they were killed as innocent civilians.

Hazem remembers the last time he spoke to his mother on the phone on Friday, just briefly, about a water outage. Hours later, she was dead.

Hazem gave PoliticsGlobal permission to publish words he wrote in an obituary posted to Facebook: “If only I knew that was the last time I would hear your voice. I would never have hung up the phone.”

On Saturday morning [8th March], he wrote he had not had an opportunity to bury his family: “They are still laying on the ground.”

The local universities postponed their exams until further notice as the fighting began, and have commemorated their killed alumni on their social media pages. The posts mourning dental students, pharmacy alumni or junior doctors seem never-ending. Many posts commemorate students as well as their entire families, including small children, all killed on the same day, many in the city of Baniya.

Through his online group, Mohamed has gained an understanding of how all these people were being killed, as he was sent pictures and videos of what he says were government troops committing war crimes against Alawite civilians.

One picture shows a soldier with a gun, standing on top of the body of a dead woman, who is still wearing her house slippers. In another video, a man in fighting attire is walking around in a ditch, below him bodies in civilian clothing. He boasts about having “eliminated the remainders of the old regime.

 Several videos show the bodies of what appear to be small children inside houses, and men lying down in fields before being executed. None of these videos can be verified independently, but the Guardian spoke to Alawite locals describing similar executions of entire families in villages in the area.

And, the Syrian Network for Human Rights reported that in al-Mukhtariya in Latakia province, less than an hour away from Baniya, where Mohamed’s cousins and Hazem’s family were killed, about 40 civilians were executed by government-affiliated troops on Friday. Unverified videos show people in civilian clothes trying to crawl away from the shooting on their hands and knees. 

The Patriarch of Antioch, head of the Greek Orthodox church in Syria, said that several Christian civilians were dragged out of their houses and then executed during the fighting. He also said Christian symbols had been desecrated. Although not specifically blaming anyone, the Patriarch stressed that these actions stood “in stark contrast to the President of Syria’s vision for a new Syria,” and called on al-Sharaa to put “an immediate end to these massacres.”

Mohamed had still not heard from his mother on Saturday. By then, government forces had taken control of all urban centers in the region, and the violence seemed largely over.

Finally, on Saturday evening, Mohamed received a call from his mother. She had made it into hiding together with his sister and nieces, the youngest of whom is six years old. They were scared, but otherwise well.

Mohamed said: “Had they stayed at home, they would have been killed. They made it out just in time.”

Amidst the killings, Syria’s state-owned news agency ,SANA, cited a government official saying that “large, unorganised crowds have moved toward the coast” to fight the Alawites on Thursday and Friday, even acknowledging that “individual violations” had taken place as these crowds entered the region.

An interior ministry source told the state broadcaster: “We are working to put a stop to these violations that do not represent the Syrian people as a whole.”

“Unorganized crowds” could be referring to a certain part of the Syrian government’s security forces. During the civil war, thousands of foreign Jihadists flocked to Syria to join HTS, with many hailing from Central Asia. They have been the source of much controversy, often seen as trying to force fundamentalist beliefs onto Syrians, with little regard for minority rights.

Interim president Al-Sharaa, once an al-Qaeda member himself, has ousted some foreign fighters since taking power, trying to transform his HTS into a more nationalistic force, but many foreign Jihadists remain present in Syria, with some being given leadership positions in the interim government. 

There have been concerns that some factions amongst these foreign fighters hold ISIS-like ideologies, and that al-Sharaa has little control over them.

Century International fellow ,Aron Lund, an expert on Syria, told al-Jazeera: “The forces the new al-Sharaa regime depends on are only partly under its control, and they are full of anti-Alawi chauvinists.”

Mohamed agrees: “The foreign fighters are on a Jihad against us.”

Mohamed says his family and friends told him they were starting to see more and more non-Syrians on the streets of their towns in the country’s northwest.

He tells PoliticsGlobal: “Many of those now ethnically cleansing my people are not Syrian, but rogue jihadists from Central Asia.”  And he shows videos and pictures of Asian-looking men committing what he says are war crimes against his people.

 The videos cannot be verified independently, but on Sunday, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that his government ‘condemns the radical Islamist terrorists, including foreign jihadis, that murdered people in western Syria in recent days” – making clear he acknowledges the foreign fighters are an issue.

Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Qatar have however pledged their support for the Syrian government, while the UN envoy to Syria urged for restraint and the protection of civilians.

Alevi Federation founder Israfil Erbil, meanwhile, calls on the world to protect his people from al-Sharaa and his fighters: “Do not believe his lies about a peaceful Syria. He played a role in an ethnic and sectarian massacre. The international community has to help us.”

The Syrian government did not respond to a request for comment, but Prime Minister al-Sharaa said on Sunday [9th March] that the fighting had been an “expected challenge”.

Syria’s president also said those committing war crimes would be brought to justice, but did not specify who exactly he was referring to.

Marco Rubio also urged al-Sharaa on Sunday to “hold the perpetrators of these massacres accountable.”

Mohamed does not believe that will happen. He says the government has now brought in trucks and water cannons to clean the streets of any evidence of what has happened. Videos seen by PoliticsGlobal appear to verify his claim.

Mohamed said: “I promise you, next week they will invite an al-Jazeera camera crew and tell the world nothing happened.”

“But this will go on. Now it’s the Alawites- the Christians and Druze are next. Syria is a ticking time bomb.”

With additional reporting by Henry Snowdon

So, how did the election play out? Here are five key takeaways from the vote.

A Conservative victory- but it could have been bigger

First things first- the Conservatives have won this election, and their chairman Friedrich Merz will most likely be Germany’s next chancellor. Merz comes in at almost 30%, well in front of all other parties, and will have a strong mandate to govern: it is not hard to see why. Only 16% of Germans were happy with the last government, and as the biggest opposition party, the Conservatives offered a change. Merz thus ran a campaign heavily focused on his economic expertise.

Yet, simply describing this as a Conservative win does not tell the whole story. It is the second lowest election result in the party’s history, a far cry from the 41% Merz’s predecessor Angela Merkel achieved in 2013. Despite the left-wing government’s incredibly low approval ratings, the Conservatives have only gained about 4% since the last election.Part of the reason is Friedrich Merz’s low approval ratings, as many Germans perceive him as impulsive and old-fashioned. He has also shifted his party to the right, calling for stricter immigration rules amidst the recent terrorist attacks, vowing not to leave the contentious immigration topic to far-right AfD. When elected chairman of the Conservatives, Merz had promised he would “cut AfD in half” at the election. But that did not happen.

Instead, AfD has doubled its share of the vote despite Merz’s tough immigration stances. Voters did not really buy into the Conservatives’ new policies, instead staying loyal to the anti-immigration original, AfD. Even worse, Merz lost votes to the left, as many centrist voters did not appreciate his right-wing rhetoric.

The far-right surge, but have no shot at power

Similar to the Conservatives, the circumstances of this election could hardly have been more in the far-right AfD’s favour. The party profited from the left-wing government’s disastrous approval ratings and the struggling economy, offering radical solutions like a full walk-back on renewable energy, ending support for Ukraine and leaving the EU. 

AfD’s prime topic, immigration, also came to the forefront amidst the recent terrorist attacks, with the party being quick to declare that their immigration policies would have prevented all of the attacks. Globally, Elon Musk’s endorsement was notable, with the richest man on earth promoting the party’s content and calling on Germans to vote AfD. 

Consequently, AfD had a very good election. Doubling their share of the vote to 20%, the party has finished in second place. Since WWII, every German election has seen the two “People’s Parties”, Conservatives and Social Democrats battle out who comes first and second. AfD have shaken up that dynamic- they have become a “People’s Party”. Despite the Conservatives moving to the right on immigration to crush AfD, the party has hardly lost votes to them, either.

Yet, some inside AfD are disappointed. In an election that seemed so perfectly laid out for them, AfD failed to reach their goal of 25%, which would have enabled the right-wingers to block constitutional amendments and lead government audits and investigations. And, despite party chairwoman Weidel saying she is ready to work with the Conservatives on election night, the party knows they will be in opposition until the next election, as the Conservatives have ruled out any cooperation. AfD’s plan of achieving so many votes that a government without them is impossible has failed- and there are rumours some in the party are calling for a change of leadership.

Germany’s Social Democrats are shattered- and will have to regroup

While both the Conservatives and AfD have celebrated gains, one does not have to look far to see where those votes have come from. Chancellor Scholz’s Social Democrats, who won the last election, have seen the lowest result in their history, achieving just 16% of the vote. This humiliating result is the people’s verdict on Scholz’s government, which failed to lead the country out of recession and was consumed by infighting. Scholz has already said he will retire from front-row politics. 

Many Social Democrats wonder why they did not field another candidate. Boris Pistorius, defence minister under Scholz, has been Germany’s most popular politician for a while now, becoming more prominent internationally after delivering an immediate rebuttal to JD Vance at the Munich Security Conference. Pistorius, known as a centrist big on supporting Ukraine, is favoured by many to become the party’s next leader, and lead them back to the top.

Germany moved to the right – but also to the far left

Possibly the biggest surprise of the election is socialist party “Die Linke”. Only making it into parliament because of a technicality at the last election, the party is now at 8%, and will likely gain even more seats, as they are set to win several key Eastern German constituencies. 

This is surprising to many, as the election campaign was marked by a general shift to the right, with AfD gaining traction and the Conservatives toughening up on immigration. Yet, the Socialists, who are against any form of border controls and reject deportations entirely, did well, most notably with young people, coming first amongst under 25-year-olds. The party ran a successful social media campaign, focused on bringing down the cost of living, while reinforcing classic socialist narratives of taxing the rich and “abolishing billionaires”. The new German parliament will thus have a strong far right, but also a sizable far left.

A divisive election- but most likely a centrist government

This election has seen a timid Conservative win, a far-right surge, a far-left comeback and a shattered centre-left. Yet, the outcome of what has arguably been the most divisive election Germany has ever had will most likely be a government that is not divisive at all. Friedrich Merz has finished first, and he has started talks to form a coalition with the weakened Social Democrats. 

This so-called “Great Coalition”, commonly known as “Groko”, has governed Germany throughout much of its history. The two parties agree on many things, such as the need for economic reforms and robust support for Ukraine. As the Social Democrats disagree with some of his immigration stances, Merz signalled on Monday that he was willing to walk back on his more radical proposals, such as closing German borders entirely.

Hence, it is no surprise that recent polls indicate most Germans want a change in government. Friedrich Merz and his Conservatives are polling at 30%, far ahead of all other parties. The 69-year-old former Blackrock executive has made economic reforms the bedrock of his campaign, while also pushing for more German support for Ukraine.

However, he has also moved the Conservatives further to the right, advocating for tougher immigration rules, and making headlines with controversial statements, for instance accusing immigrants of “stealing German’s dentist appointments”, and saying Ukrainian war refugees were engaging in “benefits tourism” while in Germany. He has apologized for some of these quotes. Merz’s supporters say he is reclaiming ground on the right his long-time rival Angela Merkel gave up when she led the Conservatives, while others accuse Merz of simply adopting talking points of the party polling right behind him: AfD.

Right-wing AfD are riding a historic wave of support, polling at 20%, double what they achieved at the last election in 2021. Party leader Alice Weidel has made AfD the second strongest force in German politics, currently predicted to win every single constituency in Eastern Germany. Weidel, a former business consultant who lives in Switzerland with her wife, has been described as “Germany’s Georgia Meloni”, having given AfD a more progressive image, while not abandoning social conservatism, right-wing economic policies, and a hard-right stance on immigration. 

AfD are still in favour of leaving the EU, and against any sort of German support for Ukraine. The party’s youth organization was just disbanded after the Secret Service classified it as right-wing extremist, and Björn Höcke, convicted last year for using a fascist phrase, still leads the AfD chapter in the state of Thuringia.

Meanwhile, current Chancellor Olaf Scholz is far behind the Conservatives and AfD, polling at around 15%. Scholz oversaw a government that had to deal with massive economic challenges, failed to prevent terrorist attacks, and was consumed by infighting between his liberal and green party coalition partners. Adapting an increasingly tough stance on immigration, Scholz has managed to gain some ground in the polls since his government broke up, yet he is far away from the 25% he achieved at the last election in 2021.

Similarly, the Green party is also polling at around 15%. Part of Scholz’s government, party leader and economics minister Robert Habeck often seemed overwhelmed by the crumbling economy, passing several laws he had to later retract and apologize for, with some calling him the “worst economics minister of all time”. An area the Greens have been more steadfast on, however, is supporting Ukraine, pushing for increased arms deliveries and making Habeck the target of Russian smear campaigns.

So, which of these parties will lead Germany soon? Traditionally, the party that wins the most votes on election day-  probably the Conservatives- are the only ones allowed to start looking out for partners to form a government. And Friedrich Merz will likely have the choice of two very different coalition options.

Firstly, there are undeniable similarities between his Conservatives and AfD, on economic policies, social conservatism, and immigration. Together, the parties would have a comfortable majority. All German parties have blocked AfD from any political power during their entire existence, and the Conservatives long participated in this, until voting with AfD on a non-binding law in Parliament last month. Merz’s rivals to the left promptly accused him of testing the waters for a coalition after the election. Social Democrat Rolf Mützenich said Merz had “opened the gates of hell”.

A Conservative-AfD coalition would likely enforce incredibly tough immigration laws, question German support for Ukraine, and possibly have Germany leaving the EU. AfD have proposed mass deportations before, even of people with German citizenship, and Merz’s anti-immigration rhetoric makes some believe he would go along with some of these plans. Could Europe’s biggest economy be cozying up to Trump and his European allies soon? 

After the vote, there were protests in all big German cities, and even Angela Merkel came out of retirement to criticize the cooperation. Under pressure, Merz said he had not wanted AfD to vote for his law, and regretted they had done so. In a vote on another law a few days after, a large swath of conservative MPs refused to vote with AfD again, defying Merz. A coalition with AfD, so it seems, would cause a rebellion inside the Conservative Party, and Merz has since promised he will not enter any sort of coalition talks with AfD. There is much anxiety about whether he will stay true to his word.

But the Conservative chairman has another option: A Conservative-led coalition with the Social Democrats and the Greens, nicknamed the “Kenya coalition”. Greens and Conservatives currently form a coalition together in five German states, and Conservatives and Social Democrats have governed Germany together countless times. 

However, Merz has criticized the Greens and Social Democrats harshly during the election campaign, accusing them of being responsible for Germany’s dire economic situation. Markus Söder, head of a powerful regional outlet of the Conservatives, has said he would not allow Merz to form a coalition with the Greens, whom he refers to as “enemy number one”. Meanwhile, the Greens and Social Democrats condemned Merz’s controversial statements on immigration, and his votes with AfD, with Scholz saying Merz “often talks nonsense.”

It would not be the first time in Germany, however, that campaign rhetoric is quickly buried after the election, and experts say this coalition is very likely. A “Kenya” government would probably adopt a centrist approach to tackling Germany’s economic recession, while Merz will push to toughen up immigration rules. He and the Greens also agree on increasing German support for Ukraine, and the coalition would likely also further beef up the German army, something Merz has called for.

It is safe to say that much is at stake in Germany amidst the election on the 23rd. Whether Merz will decide to break his promise and negotiate with AfD, possibly forming an unprecedentedly right-wing government, or go for the centrist option with the “Kenya” coalition is anyone’s guess. And, in the two weeks until the election, much can still change.

Crucial to the first stage, set to take 42 days, will be a hostage deal. Hamas will free 33 Israeli hostages captured in the October 7th attacks, reportedly women, children, men over the age of 50, and those who are wounded and sick. This includes female soldiers. The two sides have agreed for Hamas to release seven captives a week during the first stage, until all living women, children and older people still held in Gaza are freed.

For every civilian hostage released by Hamas, the Israeli government will then free 30 to 50 Palestinians, mostly women, children and elderly people. For every female soldier released by Hamas, the Israelis will set free 50 Palestinian prisoners- with limitations. Palestinians serving time for deadly attacks on Israelis are to be included, but individuals responsible for the October 7th attacks will not be released. 

Hostages’ families protest (Flickr/ Amir Appel)

During this exchange, the Israeli military would retreat from most of the Gaza Strip, except a buffer zone on Gaza’s border with Israel, and the Philadelphi corridor, which forms the border between Gaza and Egypt. The plan also entails the re-opening of the Rafah crossing between Egypt and Gaza, to allow desperately needed foreign aid to enter. The agreement then also allows the return of displaced Palestinians to their homes in northern Gaza.

The draft ceasefire agreement finally outlines what comes after the first 42-day stage, stating all remaining hostages are to be released in return for a complete Israeli withdrawal from Gaza. Negotiations on how exactly this second stage is going to look will resume during the first one. If this deal is agreed on, however, its first stage would bring peace to Gaza for the first time since October 7th. 

The plan itself has been around for a while, with US President Biden presenting a peace resolution in May 2024, whose three stages almost mirror the current deal. Israel and Hamas have negotiated variations of that plan ever since Biden unveiled it, with talks repeatedly breaking down. So why do they seem ready to agree on it now?

For many, Benjamin Netanyahu was long the main hindrance to peace talks. The Israeli president has had a corruption trial and inquiries over the national security failure on October 7th looming over him: “It was in Netanyahu’s interest to prolong the war, because as long as it goes on there will be no call for accountability,” Oliver McTernan, director of conflict resolution charity Forward Thinking, told the BBC. Additionally, right-wing members of Netanyahu’s government had threatened to resign if he would accept a deal, possibly collapsing his government.

But with pro-ceasefire protests across Israel in the last few weeks, and recent polls showing 72% of Israelis supporting a deal, Netanyahu may have had to give into the pressure. He is also not risking the collapse of his government anymore, having recently added a new party into his coalition, which now has a comfortable majority even if the far right back out. 

Another reason for Netanyahu to soften his position may have been Donald Trump. Keen to start off his tenure in the White House with a foreign policy success, Trump is reported to have pressured Netanyahu to enter negotiations, and the Israeli president may wait for Trump’s first day in office to announce he has accepted the deal.

Hamas was also under increasing pressure to enter ceasefire talks. Decimated by relentless Israeli airstrikes and ground operations, and with its allies Hezbollah and Iran also struggling, Hamas is weakened. Internally, the group has had to fend off criminal gangs in Gaza itself, and confront growing internal friction with Fatah leader Mahmoud Abbas. Israeli envoys have also said the group has been more open to negotiations after the death of its leader Yahya Sinwar, who the Israelis say categorically blocked any kind of hostage deal. 

For both sides, the ceasefire could thus come at a convenient time. But Qatari mediators say the negotiations could still fail- the plan has its weak points.

Firstly, the hostage exchange, the basis of the entire deal, is in question. In their tunnel system below Gaza, Hamas have lost track of where some Israeli hostages are, and whether they are still alive. Multiple Israelis are reportedly also held by other Islamist groups and not by Hamas, making organized releases difficult. The ceasefire could fail in the very first stage, simply because Hamas cannot produce the 33 hostages.

Another issue is that Israeli representatives have maintained they need to have a basis in Gaza itself to make sure Hamas does not rearm. The current draft would not allow that, but it has been discussed Israel may be allowed to have access to the crucial Netzarim corridor in Gaza during the first stage, allowing it to control the strip better. However, Hamas still needs to agree to this.

But even if all issues within the first stage are resolved, the second one might prove the most difficult. With the draft vaguely stating that all remaining hostages have to be released and Israel has to fully retreat from Gaza, both sides appear deadlocked. Hamas has said it will not release all hostages until Israel has left Gaza entirely, while Israeli representatives say they will not leave Gaza before all their hostages are home, and they have guarantees Hamas does not take power there again. 

Speaking to reporters on Tuesday, US foreign secretary Anthony Blinken provided a possible solution, saying the international community should come together in an “international stabilization and security effort”. Blinken also stated some international partners had agreed to contribute troops to maintain order in a self-governing Gaza.

Despite this, Benjamin Netanyahu has reportedly only signaled his support for the first stage of the ceasefire, not the second one. The two sides resuming the hostilities after the first phase is not unlikely. A temporary ceasefire may be close, but long-term peace could be as far as ever.