• Reform UK: 25%
• Labour: 24%
• Conservatives: 21%
• Lib Dems: 14%
• Greens: 9%

Reform have also consistently been ahead of the Conservatives among various other pollsters, with Nigel Farage thus arguing that his party is now the true voice of opposition.

Given that Britain appears to be entering an era of a new 3-party-system, with 2 of those parties being distinctly right-wing, suggestions have inevitably been raised about a merger or electoral pact.

Esther McVey, MP for Tatton and former Minister of State without Portfolio, appeared on the TaxPayers’ Alliance’s podcast this week, and endorsed an electoral pact between the two parties, but didn’t think a formal merger was realistic.

McVey now occupies the backbenches, having not been offered a role in the Shadow Cabinet by Kemi Badenoch. She declared that she didn’t want to see the Labour party, and thus “socialism” win the next election because the two right wing parties “did not come to some sort of agreement”.

Regarding a potential merger between the two parties, McVey suggested that the personnel would have “a lot of egos in there” who may not “come together and govern the country” effectively.

She also ruled out joining Reform UK, and said that “they asked me to join a long time ago when [Richard] Tice ran it and we’re mates, I wish him well”.

McVey said that Conservatives’ “core ideology” was a “small state, power to the individual, low taxes”, but that this had been abandoned by the party, meanwhile Reform “snaffled up our beliefs and ideologies”.

YouGov recently polled Conservative and Reform UK voters about the prospect of a merger, with 47% of Tory voters supportive, compared to 38% for Reform UK. The appetite for an alliance between these two right-wing parties is clearly there among voters, but as things stand, the leaderships of the two parties couldn’t be further from that reality.

When asked about the prospect in January, Tory leader Kemi Badenoch replied: “Nigel Farage says he wants to destroy the Conservative Party. Why on earth would we merge with that?”.

During the general election campaign last summer, Farage said he wouldn’t join the Conservatives in their current form, but said he would be happy lead a merger between the two. Since then however, Farage has looked to displace the Tories as Britain’s de facto right-wing party, and paint Reform as the voice of opposition to Starmer’s Labour.

Yesterday Reform UK’s Chairman Zia Yusuf rejected former Tory minister Jacob Rees-Mogg’s suggestion of a ‘non-aggression pact’ between the two parties in a post on X.

“After what you and your traitorous Cabinet did to this country, no thanks mate. Reform will fight every Tory, and we will win a decisive victory for the United Kingdom”

If the aforementioned YouGov poll is believed to be accurate, the two parties would have a combined vote share of 46% – easily enough for a parliamentary majority if achieved at a general election. But given Farage’s aim to displace the Conservatives, and the fact that the next election could be up to 4 years away, it’s likely he will continue to rule out any sort of deal, hoping that Reform UK’s polling rise continues, and propels him into government.

All PMs have to face the Liaison committee 2 or 3 times a year, in a much more policy-focused and substantive scrutinising exercise than weekly Prime Ministers Questions.

The Liaison committee is comprised of all the chairs of the various House of Commons select committees, with MPs from all different parties working together to scrutinise the government. It is an uncomfortable ordeal for any Prime Minister.

A notable moment occurred right at the end. When committee chair Dame Meg Hillier asked Starmer what he would have done differently over the last 5 months, he replied “”No. We had to do tough stuff. We’re getting on with it.”

He elaborated, saying that after 9 years as an opposition MP, it has been far better “to be in a position of power to change lives for the better”.

Here is a summary of Starmer’s first time facing the dreaded Liaison Committee:

The Economy

Committee Chair Dame Meg Hillier started with the economy, asking Starmer about his plans to achieve growth. When Starmer responded by touting a “decade of low growth” and a £22 billion black hole as his inheritance, he was pressed by Hillier on how he plans to turn this around.

He argued that changes to planning and regulations were essential to achieving growth, particularly on housing and infrastructure.

Pressed on his target to achieve the highest sustained growth in the G7 by the end of the parliament, he reaffirmed his commitment to the goal. Starmer admitted that “it will take some time” for economic growth to arrive, but that he hopes his plans will help working people feel better off.

Housing

The conversation then turned to housing, with Labour MP Florence Eshalomi asking the PM why he froze the Local Housing Allowance rate earlier this year – a benefit payment that helps those on low incomes pay for rented accommodation.

Starmer didn’t address LHA directly, but said that the way out of the housing crisis was to build more homes, citing his pledge to build 1.5 million houses by the end of this parliament.

Eshalomi pressed the PM further on homelessness and temporary accommodation, which Starmer admitted was in an “appalling” state. He reasserted the importance of the 1.5 million pledge, arguing that while it was difficult, it was “hugely important” and cited government funding announced this week to help local councils address homelessness.

He vowed to take on the “blockers in the way” of new housing and infrastructure developments, citing the fact that wind turbines often take 13 years to build due to planning objections, when they could actually take just 2.

Farmers and Inheritance Tax

Lib Dem MP Alistair Carmichael then turned to the controversial inheritance tax changes imposed on farmers, asking if the target was either “the super-rich sheltering wealth” or family farmers. Starmer said the purpose was merely to raise revenue and wasn’t aimed at any particular group.

He repeated an earlier argument that most farms would be unaffected, and that the £3 million inheritance tax threshold would “protect the family farm”.

Employing some classic Blairite New Labour rhetoric, he said that “what the very wealthy do with their money, within the rules, is a matter for them”.

Pensioners and Winter Fuel Allowance

Another difficult topic was then brought up, with statistics put to Starmer suggesting that 300,000 more pensioners are in poverty compared to a decade a go, a figure which may increase thanks to his decision to cut universal winter fuel payments.

In response, the PM said that pension credit had been uplifted, and that his government was committed to the triple-lock, although these measures won’t take effect until April.

He said neither of these decisions could have been made if the Chancellor had not “stabilised the economy” in the budget with spending cuts such as winter fuel.

International Affairs

The conversation turned then turned to the possibility of trade tariffs being introduced by incoming US-President Donald Trump. Starmer said he was aware of the danger, and is “not a fan” of tariffs.

When asked about balancing US relations with EU relations, he refused to accept that the UK had to “either be with the US or the EU”.

“We do want a closer relationship with the EU on security and trade, at the same time I want to improve our relationship with the US”.

The conversation finished on the ongoing Israel-Palestine conflict, and the role the UK would play in the aftermath of a potential ceasefire. Starmer said “we need this ceasefire and we need it right now” and that the UK would use its “considerable influence” to ensure that a viable Palestinian state is formed. On the terms of the agreement, he declared “a ceasefire is not worthy of its name if it does not involve the release of the hostages” held by Hamas.

Monday

Monday begins with Oral Questions to the Home Office, with MPs given the chance to question Home Secretary Yvette Cooper.

The government announced last week their intention to give police and local councils more powers to ban persistent offenders from town centres, as part of Labour’s broader strategy to tackle anti-social behaviour. A new “respect order” has been introduced, similar to the Anti-Social-Behaviour-Disorders pioneered by Blair in the 1990s, which carries a 2 year prison sentence if breached. Expect Cooper to face questions about these new measures, which civil liberties campaigners have warned could be misused by police officers, and criminalise homelessness.

The Commons also sees the Second Reading of the “Non-Domestic Rating Bill”. This Act removes the VAT exemption for private school fees, one of Labour’s manifesto commitments. The plans are set to take effect in January 2025, and has drawn criticism from political opponents, who fear that the tax rise will lead to a surge in admissions to state schools, with parents unable to afford the 20% increase in fees.

If the bill passes this vote, it will be then be scrutinised by committees, then go to a final vote in the Commons, before being sent to the House of Lords.

Finally, Westminster Hall hosts an debate on an e-petition that asks to allow parents to take their children out of school for two weeks a year without being fined. The petition received 250,000 public signatures, and argues that fines for families taking their children on holiday during term time are unfair on those on lower incomes.

Tuesday

Oral Questions to the Foreign Office is the first item on Tuesday morning, with Foreign Secretary David Lammy in the hot seat. Expect questions about the International Criminal Court’s recent arrest warrant issued for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and whether the UK government will comply with that ruling.

Following this, the Tobacco and Vapes Bill undergoes its second reading in the Commons. This legislation was resurrected from Rishi Sunak’s government, as it didn’t pass through parliament before the election in July. The bill seeks to create a “smoke-free generation” by banning the sale of tobacco to anyone born after 2009, effectively phasing out smoking slowly every year. It also bans disposable vapes and restricts vape flavours, advertising methods and sponsorships in a bid to make them less appealing to young people.

There are also Westminster Hall debates on:

• Delivery of electricity grid upgrades
• Government support for local councils to tackle fly-tipping
• Online safety for young people
• Suicide and Mental Health

Over in the House of Lords, the third and final reading of the government’s Water Bill takes place. This act aims gives new powers to water regulators, like Ofwat and the Environment Agency, to block bonuses for company bosses if environmental standards are not met. It also allows fines for those companies failing to meet regulations, and imprisonment if they seek to block an investigation into pollution incidents.

As this bill started in the Lords, should it pass its final vote tomorrow it will head to the Commons at a later date.

Wednesday

Wednesday at noon sees Prime Minister’s Questions, with Keir Starmer facing new Tory leader Kemi Badenoch once again.

Then follows a Second Reading of the “Finance Bill”, which contains the measures outlined in the Autumn Budget statement delivered by Chancellor Rachel Reeves in late October. See our article on it here. Expect the bill to pass easily given Labour’s large commons majority.

Westminster Hall sees debates on:

• UK air and missile defences
• Devolution for Lancashire
• Tackling violence against women and girls
• World AIDs Day

In the House of Lords, the Football Governance Bill is in its Committee Stage, with one more vote before it heads to the Commons. The bill aims to establish an Independent Football Regulator in England, which will monitor the revenue of clubs, the organisation of competitions, and licensing issues. It also seeks to block the potential for breakaway leagues like the European Super League. UEFA, Europe’s football governing body, has warned that the bill could represent a significant government interference in football, and violate its statutes. It has even threatened to expel English clubs from the Champions League, but the government is confident the new bill breaches no UEFA rules.

Thursday

Thursday starts with Oral Questions to the Department of Culture, Media and Sport, followed by Business Questions to the Leader of the House, Lucy Powell.

The latter session is for Lucy Powell to announce upcoming parliamentary business events, and lets MPs ask the government to schedule a debate on a specific issue.

There will then be 2 backbench business debates on:

• The international status of Taiwan
• Freedom of religion in Pakistan

These debates are scheduled by the Backbench Business Committee, which gives opportunities for backbench MPs to bring forward debates of their choice.

Friday

Friday is the biggest day of the week, with the greatly anticipated first vote on the Assisted Dying Bill. This is a private members bill introduced by Labour MP Kim Leadbeater, which would allow doctors to assist terminally ill adults to end their lives. It will be a free vote, with no official government position or party whips enforcing how MPs should vote, given the moral nature of the issue.

The Commons last voted on a similar private members bill in 2015, and rejected it by 330 votes to 118. It is unclear whether the vote will pass this time, with many MPs publicly vowing to vote for or against the bill.

The act includes safeguards that aim to address some of the concerns around assisted suicide. A person must have a terminal diagnosis, be expected to live for no more than 6 months, and demonstrate the mental capacity to make the decision to end their own life. Doctors are only allowed to provide an approved substance that the person can then self-administer to end their life.

Read a full summary of the bill here.

As this is the second reading, should it pass it will undergo further scrutiny, another vote in the Commons, and have to go through the Lords as well before it becomes law.

The results of the members ballot:

• Kemi Badenoch 53,806 (56.6%)
• Robert Jenrick 41,318 (43.4%)

Badenoch was the favourite from the very start of the contest, with a poll of Tory party members from late July putting her as first choice of the initial 6 candidates.

Badenoch served as Business Secretary and Minister for Women and Equalities under Rishi Sunak, and resigned from Boris Johnson’s government shortly before his resignation in July 2022.

Her task now will be to rebuild the Conservative party after years of scandal and division, which culminated in their worst ever electoral defeat. With just 121 MPs left in the Commons, and the threat of Reform UK still ever present, Badenoch will aim to unite the right of British politics, and rebuild trust in the Conservatives as a whole.

It provides the party with a clean slate from their 14 year period in government, and Badenoch will be eager to distance the Tories from the legacy of Sunak, Truss, Johnson and co. The scale of the task is certainly daunting, given Labour’s huge majority in parliament, and the relative disunity within the Tory party between One-Nation moderates, and the right-wing.

Both of the final 2 candidates were seen as titans of the Tory right, although Jenrick was formerly seen as a centrist figure prior to his time as immigration minister.

In her acceptance speech, Badenoch said it was an “enormous honour” to be elected as party leader. She paid tribute to Robert Jenrick, who she said led a “great campaign” full of energy and determination.

“You and I know that we don’t actually disagree on very much and I have no doubt that you have a key part to play in our party for many years to come”

Finishing her speech, she pledged to hold Labour to account and prepare the Tory party for government.

“The time has come to tell the truth, to stand up for our principles, to plan for our future, to reset our politics and our thinking, and to give our party and our country the new start that they deserve”

During her leadership campaign, Badenoch aimed to speak about principles rather than policy; which drew criticism from Jenrick and his supporters. Those principles she has sought to emphasise are freedom, family, and personal responsibility.

She was an outspoken critic of the last Tory government, which she said “talked right and yet governed left”, leaving the public feeling confused and “manipulated”. Her campaign focused on renewing the party for 2030, as this is the first full year that the Tories can be back in government.

It means Rishi Sunak’s time as leader has come to an end. He now returns to backbenches after serving as Chancellor, Prime Minister and briefly as Leader of the Opposition.

In reaction, Sunak said Badenoch would be a “superb leader” who will “renew our party, stand up for Conservative values, and take the fight to Labour”

Badenoch becomes the first Tory leader to be elected in opposition since 2005, when David Cameron took over after the party’s 3rd election defeat in a row. Badenoch will be hoping that it doesn’t take the Tories 3 election defeats to get back into Downing Street. She will be encouraged by polling from BMG research last night, which showed them ahead of Labour for the first time in 3 years on 29%, with Labour on 28%.

Keir Starmer personally is unpopular, but still seen as a better Prime Minister than either Jenrick or Badenoch, according to the latest YouGov poll.

Shortly after the announcement, Prime Minister Keir Starmer congratulated Badenoch on her victory, and hailed the first black leader of a Westminster party as a “proud moment for our country”.

Kemi Badenoch will now form her shadow cabinet in the coming days, and look to scrutinise an already unpopular Labour government. Prior to the result, both candidates said they would be willing to serve in their opponents shadow cabinet.

Following their landslide election victory in July, Labour promised to fix the foundations of Britain’s economy. It meant that their first Autumn Budget, an outline of the government’s tax and spending plans for the following financial year, was eagerly anticipated.

In her opening remarks, Reeves promised to restore stability to the UK economy and unleash a decade of national renewal; familiar phrases from Labour’s election campaign.

Despite the bleak tone of her budget, in which she lamented the record of the outgoing Conservative government, the Chancellor said her “belief in Britain burns brighter than ever”.

On the Tory economic record, she argued that “their austerity broke our NHS, their Brexit deal harmed British businesses, and their mini-budget left families paying the price with higher mortgages”.

She further declared that after a “decade of low growth” under the Tories, she inherited a £22 billion black hole in public finances, forcing her to make tough decisions “in the national interest”.

Positioning Labour as the party of economic stability and fiscal responsibility was a key theme, with Reeves promising to never again allow “a government to play fast and loose with the public finances”.

Key announcements

Overall, this Budget raised taxes by £40 billion. Reeves said that “any chancellor standing here today would have to face this reality”, referencing the aforementioned £22 billion blackhole.

Here is our summary of the Chancellor’s Autumn Budget:

Taxes – Personal

• Income tax thresholds will be unfrozen in 2028, and will then be uprated in line with inflation

• Capital Gains Tax, profits from selling shares, increased from 10 to 18%, and higher rate increased to 20% to 24%

• Inheritance tax thresholds frozen until 2030 – with unspent pensions included from 2027

• Increase in the interest rate on unpaid tax paid to HMRC – plus new powers to go after tax avoidance

• Stamp duty surcharge for second homes increased 2p to 5%

• Reducing debt on Universal Credit Payments from 25 to 15%

Taxes – Business

• Corporation tax capped at 25% for the duration of the parliament

• Employers National Insurance increased by 1.2p to 15% from April

• Threshold level at which employers start paying National Insurance reduced from £9,100 to £5,000

• Increasing employment allowance for small business from £5,000 to £10,000

• Windfall tax on North Sea oil and gas producers increased from 35% to 38%

Taxes – Other

• Private jet passenger duty increased by 50% – equivalent to £450 per passenger

• Alcohol duty (non-draft drinks) increasing in line with RPI next year

• Alcohol duty on draft drinks cut by 1.7%

• Non-dom tax regime abolished from April, with new residence based scheme introduced

• Fuel duty frozen next year, and the existing 5p cut extended for a further

• Right to buy housing discounts reduced

• Bus fare cap increased from £2 to £3 until end of next year

Wages

• National minimum wage increased to £12.21 an hour – a 6.7% increase

• Minimum wage for 18-20 year olds increased to £10 an hour – a 16.3% increase

• Long-term ambition for an equal minimum wage for everyone aged 18 and over

• Carers weekly earnings limit increased to national living wage for 16 hours a week

Welfare

• Carrying on Conservative plans to reform the Workplace Capability Assessment to deliver welfare savings and get people back to work

• Crackdown on fraud in benefits system by expanding DWP’s fraud teams, with new legal powers to directly access bank accounts to capture debt

• Committed to pension triple lock, with state pension rising 4.1% in April 2025

In a major announcement, Reeves changed the government’s fiscal rules, meaning that debt is now defined as net financial debt, which Reeves said recognises “”that government investment delivers returns for taxpayers”.

This change allows the government to borrow more to invest, totalling around £100 billion over the next 5 years.

Reeves declared that the “only way to drive economic growth is invest, invest, invest”.

Investment – Public Services

• £22.6 billion increase in day-to-day NHS budget and £3.1 billion in capital investment

• Core schools budget increased by £2.3 billion next year, and £6.7 billion of capital investment for the Department of Education

• An extra £300 million provided for Further Education

• £1 billion uplift specifically for SEND children

• Ministry of Defence budget increased by £2.9 billion next year – plus 3 billion to support Ukraine each year in its ongoing war with Russia

• An extra £1.3 billion for local gov next year – including £600 million grant funding for social care and £230 million for tackling homelessness

• A £500 million increase in the road maintenance budget – aiming to fix 1 million potholes a year

• £650 million for local transport funding across the country

Investment – Industry

• £1 billion for the Aerospace industry

• Over £2 billion for the Automotive sector

• £520 million for a new Life Sciences Innovative Manufacturing Fund

• £20 billion in general R&D funding

• £5 billion of investment to build 1.5 million new homes

• Funding for 11 new ‘green hydrogen projects’ across Britain

In response, Conservative leader Rishi Sunak declared that Rachel Reeves and Keir Starmer “have not been straight with the British people”.

Sunak accused the Chancellor of fiddling with Britain’s fiscal rules to allow “an enormous borrowing spree”, which he said would saddle “our children and grandchildren with billions upon billions more debt”, and push up interest rates.

He further said his warnings during summer’s election campaign, that Labour would increase taxes, were borne out by this budget.

On Reeves’ claims of a dire economic inheritance, Sunak called them “nonsense”, arguing that inflation and unemployment were low, and that the UK was the fastest growing economy in the G7.

On the contents of Budget, he said Labour were destroying businesses with their tax increases, and that in reality, working people would “pay the price”.

Instead, Sunak argued, the government ought to have followed Tory plans to shrink the Civil Service and cut the benefits bill.

See our X page for all the highlights and reactions from today’s Autumn Budget!

It means that either Kemi Badenoch or Robert Jenrick will replace Rishi Sunak as Tory leader. Conservative party members will be able to vote for their preferred leader from 15th October to 31st October, with the result announced on 2nd November.

In today’s fourth ballot of MPs, the contenders received the following votes:

• Kemi Badenoch 42
• Robert Jenrick 41
• James Cleverly 37

James Cleverly had the momentum after the Tory party conference, coming first in yesterday’s ballot of MPs, seeing an increase of 18 votes. Today’s result therefore came as a huge shock, with many expecting that his place in the final 2 was fairly secure.

It means that Cleverly actually lost 2 supporters overnight, while Tom Tugendhat’s 20 votes from yesterday seem to have been evenly distributed to Kemi Badenoch and Robert Jenrick.

Cleverly had not been considered a front runner in the contest before the party conference, but his well-received speech in Birmingham propelled him into pole position. It was rumoured that Cleverly’s supporters may lend their votes to Robert Jenrick in this final vote of MPs, as they perceived him to be an easier opponent, but this may have backfired spectacularly.

Robert Jenrick actually lost votes from the second to third ballot, worrying many in his camp that he would fail to make the final 2, against many prior expectations. In today’s vote, he just beat out rival James Cleverly by a narrow margin of 4 votes.

Kemi Badenoch was considered the favourite for the leadership for much of the campaign, but her divisive comments around the UK’s “excessive” maternity pay and minimum wage certainly damaged her momentum. After yesterday’s ballot, where she placed 3rd out 4 contenders, it was widely expected that she could be eliminated. But today saw a huge reversal of her fortunes, placing 1st in the final ballot of MPs.

James Cleverly has focused his campaign on making the Tories appear “more normal” to win back voters who defected to Reform UK and the Lib Dems. He also pledged to increase defence spending and build more homes if he became Prime Minister.

Badenoch v Jenrick

The final 2 candidates for Tory leader represent the same faction of the Tory party, with Jenrick and Badenoch both considered ardent right-wingers.

In a recent Conservative Home simulation of Tory members conducted from 3 to 4 October, after the party conference, Kemi Badenoch is projected to defeat Jenrick, winning 53 to 33 per cent.

In their respective pitches, Robert Jenrick pledged to build a “new Conservative party”, leave the ECHR and implement an “effective freeze in net migration”.

Badenoch’s leadership pitch has focused on renewing the party for 2030, the first full year the Tories could hypothetically have back in government. She wants to restore small-state Conservativism, take on the “joyless decadence” of identity politics and change the party to appeal more to young people.

The decision now lies with the Conservative party members, who have 2 weeks to cast their ballot in an online vote, before the final result is announced on November 2nd.

Starmer said that October 7th 2023 was “the bloodiest day for the Jewish people since the Holocaust”, which saw 1200 Israeli civilians killed, 254 people taken hostage and many others assaulted and raped by Hamas terrorists.

He declared that the hostages “must be returned, immediately and unconditionally” and paid tribute to the families of those captured by Hamas.

Turning to the Israeli response, Starmer said today marked “a day of grief for the wider region” after a year of “conflict and suffering”. Israeli attacks in Gaza have killed around 41,000 people and displaced a further 2 million from their homes. With the conflict in recent weeks spreading to Israel’s north, with Hezbollah terrorists firing rockets in their direction from Lebanon, Starmer said that the government stood with all “innocent victims in Israel, Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon and beyond”.

He went on to condemn Iran’s attack on Israel last week, accusing them of playing a “malign role” in the Middle East. The Iranian government has consistently provided funding and support to Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis; all terrorist organisations intent on attacking Israel.

In his concluding remarks, the Prime Minister charted a path to peace, arguing that civilians in the region “cannot endure another year of this”. He called on regional leaders to exercise “courage and restraint” in seeking a diplomatic solution and an end to all military conflict. Starmer advocated a two-state solution between Israel and Palestine, saying that “there is no other option”.

“Nobody in this house [Parliament] can truly imagine what it feels like to cower under the bodies of your friends, hoping a terrorist won’t find you, mere minutes after dancing at a music festival. Nobody in this house can truly imagine seeing your city, your homes, your schools, your hospitals, your businesses obliterated, with your neighbours and family buried underneath. It is beyond our comprehension.”

Conservative leader Rishi Sunak echoed the words of the Prime Minister, and said that the conflict and suffering in the Middle East stemmed from Iran’s refusal to accept Israel’s right to exist.

Sunak further argued that the conflict in Gaza and Russian invasion of Ukraine showed the necessity of increased military spending. In that regard he asked Keir Starmer to recommit to spending 2.5% of GDP on Defence.

Finishing his responding statement, Sunak said “the United Kingdom stands with Israel against this terrorism today, tomorrow, and always”.

MPs were then given the opportunity to ask questions to Keir Starmer about the conflict, and suspended Labour MPs Richard Burgon and Zarah Sultana both asked him to consider a total ban on arms sales to Israel.

Starmer emphatically denied this request, arguing that banning all arms sales “would mean none for defensive purposes” and that it would the be the wrong thing to do, especially given Iran’s recent attacks. The government did suspend 30 of the UK’s 350 export licences to Israel in early September, citing a concern that these arms may be used to violate international law.

Amongst the fun-filled agenda, the party aimed to portray a serious message that they are the real opposition to the new Labour government, particularly on issues like the NHS, social care, and the environment.

They chose a great weekend and perfect location for their stunt-filled conference, the weather in Brighton remaining warm and sunny throughout; fitting for a party who firmly believe their fortunes are on the up. There was rarely a speech where “72 MPs” wasn’t mentioned, and there was a real sense of optimism and hope that the party could press on, defeat the Tories and soon become the official opposition to Labour.

After hopping off his jet-ski and getting changed out of his wetsuit, party leader Ed Davey told journalists that he wants the Lib Dems to be a “much better than the Conservatives” and promised that voters would hear “much more” from them after their election success.

In his Sunday Q&A session, he told party members that “we’ve knocked down a lot of the blue wall [former Tory seats], and we’re gonna knock down the rest of it”. Deputy Leader Daisy Cooper told journalists in the media room that the Lib Dems will continue to highlight the Tory’s NHS record and remind the public why they lost so badly on July 4th. She further suggested that the Conservative party actively threatens liberalism itself, citing internationalism, environmentalism and equality as the values at risk.

This inevitably drew questions of whether the Lib Dems were more focused on opposing the Conservative opposition than the new Labour government, which Cooper denied, arguing that her party wants to help clean up the mess left by the Tories by pointing out Labour mistakes.

Health and social care were the primary focuses of the conference, with the party calling on Labour to grant emergency funding for the NHS in this October’s Autumn Budget. Prime Minister Keir Starmer confirmed last week that the NHS would receive “no more money without reform”. The Lib Dem position is that investment and reform should come simultaneously, with Daisy Cooper calling the state of UK hospitals “terrible” and promising that her party would pressure Labour to “fix our crumbling hospitals and to end the crisis in social care”.

In her conference speech, Cooper shared a personal story about her experience in the NHS, telling members that doctors told her that, without major surgery, she only had 4 days left to live. She was further told that her Crohn’s disease may not allow her to work ever again. Eventually making a full recovery, Cooper said the NHS both saved her life and “gave me life back”, but feared that someone going through the same experience today may not be so lucky. She said the Tories brought the NHS “to its knees” and vowed to hold Labour’s “feet to the fire” if they failed to address the problem effectively.

Ed Davey’s speech served as the finale event for the party conference, and he maintained the up-beat mood, thanking members, volunteers, councillors and candidates for their efforts over the election campaign. Maintaining the party’s focus on the NHS, he called on Labour to establish a new ‘Winterproof NHS taskforce’, which he said could “make this year the last winter crisis in our NHS”. He said that every year governments announce “hundreds of millions of pounds of emergency funding to help the NHS through another winter crisis” and argued that instead of “just plugging the gaps” the government should invest now to “make the NHS winterproof”.

Davey vowed to hold Labour to account “for the promises they made to clear up the Conservatives’ mess” and to “champion practical, hopeful solutions for a better future”. His speech encapsulated the overall conference message that, going forward, the Lib Dems would point out Conservative failings, and scrutinise Labour’s plans carefully, attempting to offer hope against Starmer’s “doom and gloom”.

It calls itself the “most ambitious blueprint for the nation’s health since the Beveridge report”, which was commissioned by civil servant William Beveridge during the Second World War. It contained recommendations to improve the lives of ordinary people, advising the government to care for Britons “from the cradle to the grave”. It is widely credited for inspiring the birth of the NHS and the welfare state during Clement Atlee’s post-war Labour government.

The thinktank’s report has backing from Health Secretary Wes Streeting, who argues that Britain “won’t build a healthy economy without a healthy society” and said he looks forward “to studying their ideas closely”.

The Commission was chaired by Lord Darzi, who released his own independent report into the NHS, and Dame Sally Davies, former Chief Medical Officer for England. Also heavily involved were former Health Secretary and current Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham, and Lord James Bethell, who served as a junior health minister under Boris Johnson.

Dame Sally Davies said that the UK “simply should not tolerate decline in our children’s health any longer” and argued that now was the time for “bold action to ensure a health inheritance for future generations”.

The commissioners concluded that worsening public health is directly linked to economic stagnation and low productivity. It projected that if current trends continue, the number of people economically inactive due to illness could rise to 4.3 million by 2029, up from 2.8 million currently.

It estimates that 900,000 extra people were missing from work at the end of 2023 because of illness, and that this could lead to a £5 billion loss in tax receipts for the Treasury in 2024. On the flip side, it suggests that improvements in our population’s health could save the NHS £18 billion a year by the mid 2030s.

The report’s recommendations:

The IPPR’s core recommendation is to move from a reactive sickness model to a proactive model, that aims to promote good health in all realms of life. It aims to add 10 years to UK life expectancy by 2055, and to halve regional health inequalities.

Another key theme is a ‘new beginning’ for children’s health, with proposals for universal free school meals and a restoration of the Sure Start scheme. Its analysis shows a decline in childhood health over the last decade, citing increases in infant deaths, obesity and health conditions.

Some other key proposals include:

• Introducing new taxes on ‘health polluters’ like tobacco, alcohol, and unhealthy food, which could raise £10 billion a year to fund healthy food schemes
• Establishing ‘Health and Prosperity Improvement (HAPI) zones’ across the UK, with powers to invest in local health infrastructure
• Build new ‘Neighbourhood health centres’ across the UK, intended to be a “one-stop shop” for primary care, diagnostics and mental health
• Create a new health index similar to GDP, which will help assess how the nation’s health is changing over time
• Introduce a ‘right to try’ work for those on health and disability benefits, allowing people on benefits to try work with no risk to their welfare status

Health Secretary Wes Streeting will speak at the report’s launch event in Westminster on Wednesday 18th September. The full IPPR report is available here.

He will go on to say that “the Conservative government broke it [the NHS] so badly, over so many years, that it will take a lot of work to put it back together”.

In terms of policy, Davey will say that the Lib Dems will adopt “a whole new focus on community services”, citing the need for more GPs, more NHS dentists and more community pharmacists.

When I spoke to Deputy Leader Daisy Cooper, she credited their election success to putting “the NHS and care front and centre” of their campaign. The 2024 election saw 72 Liberal Democrat MPs elected, up from 11 in 2019, and their highest tally for over a century.

Ed Davey will echo Cooper’s message in his speech tomorrow, arguing that the party focused on the people’s priorities and offered a “clear message of hope” regarding the NHS and social care. Turning to the future, Davey will promise to repay “the people’s trust” in full, and continue to campaign on the cost of living, ending “the sewage scandal”, protecting the environment and fixing “the NHS and care crisis”.

With the Lib Dems gaining the majority of their seats at the expense of the Tories, Davey will go on the attack tomorrow in his speech, promising to “finish the job” of defeating the Conservatives. He will argue that they are “totally unfit to govern our country” and that they are “unfit for opposition too”.

As a clear pitch to potential Lib Dems supporters, he will argue that the “modern Conservative Party is so out of touch with so many of their former voters” and that it no longer deserves a place “at the top table of our politics”.

The Lib Dems said yesterday that this October’s Autumn Budget statement should have the NHS as its “top priority”. Tomorrow Ed Davey will suggest that Conservatives cannot provide sufficient scrutiny to Labour’s first budget, asking: “surely it’s not a job for the Tory geniuses who cheered Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng to the rafters”.

Regarding the 4 remaining Conservative leadership candidates, Davey will argue that the party is “scraping the bottom of the barrel” and that as ministers, the candidates “didn’t care about real people’s everyday problems”.

To conclude, Davey will suggest that Britain’s biggest challenges must be met with “guts, determination and hope”. He will accuse the Conservatives of pretending that problems don’t exist, and Labour of espousing “pessimism and defeatism”.

“So we will cut through the Government’s doom and gloom with our ambition for our country”

Chancellor Rachel Reeves has previously warned that the Autumn Budget “will require difficult decisions on tax, on spending, and on welfare”.

This demand comes as NHS data reveals that there have been 10.3 million waits of four weeks or more for a GP appointment in the last year, up from 8.6 million in the previous 12 month period.

Lib Dem Leader Ed Davey said the data revealed “just how badly the Conservative Party broke our NHS” and that the Autumn Budget should have the NHS as its “top priority.”

I spoke to Deputy Leader Daisy Cooper earlier today, and she credited the party’s election success to putting “the NHS and care front and centre” of their campaign. At a policy motion this morning, she told members that “developing our health and care policy have been at the heart of our conferences for a while now, and when you look at our election result, it shows”.

The Lib Dems are clearly trying to frame themselves as the strongest party on healthcare, and Cooper told members that the party will pressure Labour “to fix our crumbling hospitals and to end the crisis in social care”.

Following the publication of the Darzi report, which said that the NHS was in “critical condition”, Prime Minister Keir Starmer said that the NHS must “reform or die”. Contrary to these Lib Dem demands, Starmer also said there would be “no more money without reform”.

Ed Davey clearly disagreed, telling the Lib Dem conference during a Q&A session this afternoon that Starmer is wrong to wait to reform the NHS before investing, arguing that “we have to do both together”.

The Lib Dems have maintained their election manifesto pledge to give everyone the right to see a GP within 7 days, or 24 hours in urgent cases. To achieve this, they argue that the government should boost GP numbers and introduce a universal 24/7 appointments booking system.

Davey also said that “fixing the GP crisis is critical to saving our NHS. If people can get seen quicker, fewer will end up in hospital in the first place. That’s better for them, better for the NHS and better for taxpayers.”

Daisy Cooper appeared in the party conference’s media room earlier today, and was asked about the Liberal Democrats’ responsibility for the state of the NHS, given that they served under the coalition government from 2010 to 2015. In defence, she suggested that when the Conservatives were “left to their own devices”, when David Cameron formed a majority government following the 2015 election, “everything fell off a cliff”. She further suggested that successive governments have focused on top-down organisation rather than health outcomes, and hopes that Labour will adopt their ideas on the NHS.

With Chancellor Rachel Reeves warning of “difficult decisions” at the Autumn Budget, the Lib Dems may find more success in persuading the government to reform than getting them to invest in the NHS.

It leaves Kemi Badenoch, Robert Jenrick, Tom Tugendhat and James Cleverly as the 4 remaining candidates, who will each make their case at the Tory party conference on 29th September.

The results of the second ballot were:

• Robert Jenrick 33

• Kemi Badenoch 28

• James Cleverly 21

• Tom Tugendhat 21

• Mel Stride 16 – ELIMINATED

Bob Blackman, Chairman of the 1922 Committee, confirmed that further ballots will take place on the week commencing 7th October to reduce the contest to 2 candidates. The pair will then be put to a electronic/postal ballot of Conservative party members.

Rishi Sunak’s replacement, and the person tasked with rebuilding the Tory party after their worst ever election defeat, will then be announced on 2nd November.

Mel Stride was always an outsider candidate for the party leadership, with many surprised that he made it past the first round of voting last week. He effectively became the face of the Tory election campaign thanks to his frequent morning media appearances.

Unlike some of his former cabinet colleagues, Stride held on to his parliamentary seat, but by a measly 61 votes. He blamed party infighting for their election defeat, and promised to unite the party and win back voters from the Lib Dems, Reform and Labour.

He positioned himself as a centrist economic expert, citing his experience working in the Treasury and the Department for Work and Pensions. It is unclear who his supporters will now back, but in a contest this tight, his 16 votes could make a huge difference in the post-conference ballots.

Last week’s first ballot saw Robert Jenrick come out of top with 28 votes, and Kemi Badenoch in second with 22. Kemi Badenoch’s camp accused Jenrick of lending votes to Cleverly to push her out of the final two, but Jenrick’s team refuted this claim. The pair were again 1st and 2nd in today’s ballot, with Jenrick increasing his tally to 33 and Badenoch receiving 28 votes. Among Conservative party members, Badenoch is the favoured candidate, with Conservative Home polling giving her a 16-point lead over Robert Jenrick.

James Cleverly will be disappointed that he again got just 21 votes, suggesting that Priti Patel’s supporters clearly switched their allegiance to Badenoch, Jenrick and Tugendhat.

Despite this, polling suggests that according to the general public, James Cleverly is the Tory leadership candidate most likely to make a good Prime Minister.

The 4 remaining candidates will spend the next few weeks campaigning before heading to party conference. Some contenders have complained that they are only being given 10 minutes each to make their speeches at the party conference, arguing that this would restrict their chance to put forward their visions for Britain.

Some Tory MPs have also expressed concerns about the drawn-out nature of the leadership contest, and the fact that Rishi Sunak will still lead the party when Labour delivers its first budget statement on 30th October. It is expected that Sunak won’t feature much at the party conference, with it becoming a “beauty parade” of sorts for the 4 remaining candidates.