On May 1 2025, millions of Britons will go to the polls to elect over 1,500 local councillors as well as 6 mayors. Whilst local elections tend to carry a lower turnout and less voter enthusiasm than General Elections, the stakes are incredibly high for Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch and Reform UK leader Nigel Farage.
Historically, incumbent governments tend to perform poorly in local elections and this will likely continue with the May vote. 2021 (the last time many of these council seats were last up elected) saw an incredibly impressive Conservative result as they returned 974 seats on the back of the Covid vaccine rollout. Therefore, despite the lowering of Labour’s polling numbers, they will likely gain some seats due to how poor the 2021 result was.
This provides a sense of uneasiness for Badenoch as even if Conservatives manage to see an improvement in places where they performed poorly in 2021, it is incredibly likely that a substantial amount of seats will be lost to Labour, Liberal Democrats and Reform UK. The latter will see this election as an opportunity to turn hypothetical polling figures into actual elected representatives that can implement and push for Reform policies in local government- they currently have 7 councillors in the 2025 cohort of seats available.
The postponement of elections in 9 councils, due to a ‘shake-up’ of local government, could also determine the fallout from the results and is likely to help Badenoch and the Conservatives more than Labour (who many people have suggested would benefit the most).
Badenoch’s First Test as Leader
Since Kemi Badenoch became Conservative leader in November 2024, she has struggled to gain popularity and increase the Conservatives’ polling numbers. Alongside this, she has appeared inexperienced and underprepared when facing Sir Keir Starmer at PMQs. Therefore, these local elections provide the perfect opportunity for her to be able to kickstart her leadership and show Conservative members and the Parliamentary Party that she is the right person for the job.
This will not be easy.
One Conservative backbencher has stated that Badenoch “hasn’t got a narrative working yet” and recent Yougov head to head polls have shown Starmer as a more popular option for Prime Minister than her.
Badenoch has positioned the party to try and counter the threat of Reform (often topping opinions polls with over 25%) and solidify the Conservatives as the dominant party of the right; a task which will prove incredibly difficult given the polarisation of voters on the left of the Conservatives who are moving towards Labour and the Liberal Democrats. With all but one of the councils electing councillors holding a Conservative majority, they start with an incredibly defensive mission similar to that of the 2024 General Election meaning improvements and positive outcomes will be rather unlikely.
Farage Aims to Make Inroads
Following Reform’s 2024 General Election performance in which the party won 5 seats and 14.3% of the popular vote, Nigel Farage will feel that these local elections offer a catalyst from last year. In particular, the inaugural Greater Lincolnshire mayoral race will see former Conservative MP Andrea Jenkyns standing for Reform in the leave voting area.
Although, the high expectations that many commentators and politicians have of Reform for the upcoming elections may not come to fruition. In May 2024, the party won 2 council seats and whilst they have certainly gained in popularity since then the geographically sparse nature of their support will mean that gaining a foothold in local government may be a difficult task paired with significantly less funding than the Conservatives and Labour.
Moreover, the postponement of 9 councils to 2026 may also hinder them as they were expected to make gains in areas such as Sussex and Thurrock (the latter of which currently having a Reform UK MP in James McMurdoch).
Final Thought
These local elections will no doubt be the most fascinating in years. Following Labour’s success in the 2024 General Election they will want to have a stable set of results which solidifies Labour. Badenoch will oversee these upcoming elections with a heavy dose of expectation management as the party is braced for losses – these losses will be determined by how much Farage Reform UK can turn polls and social media engagement into actual tangible voters.
The threat of the Lib Dems must also not be ignored by Badenoch as they look to solidify their place as a feasible alternative to the Conservatives in their home counties heartlands of the ‘blue wall’. The Greens and Independents may also prove to be a story of election night as they look to cause a headache to the Labour party.
For more of Chamber UK’s analysis of local government and upcoming elections, please click here.