For anyone remotely interested in progressive politics, this last week has been momentous.
We saw the Parliamentary Labour Party publicly defy its leader in a manner unseen in Keir Starmer’s tenure as Leader of the Labour Party. MPs from across the differing wings and factions of the PLP came together, along with a huge number of local councillors, to ensure that Liz Kendall’s proposed changes to PIP and Universal Credit didn’t go ahead in their proposed form. They gained huge concessions from the government and gave Keir Starmer one of the toughest weeks of his premiership to date.
This rebellion has been so earth-shattering that some now suspect that the government is starting to shift its tone back towards a more progressive agenda. Rumours are abounding that Morgan McSweeney, the PM’s Chief of Staff, may be in an untenable position. MPs are briefing ferociously, though anonymously, against Rachel Reeves, with the charge that her iron grip on the purse strings is causing Labour to haemorrhage votes. And, rather quietly, some are even beginning to ask the question that nobody would’ve thought possible a year on from a landslide victory: can Keir Starmer’s premiership survive?
To put it simply, yes, it can. To put it slightly more complexly, it depends.
Within the Labour Party itself, support for the government is on a knife-edge. Labour members are, by nature, a very loyal breed. But dismal poll ratings combined with welfare cuts and what some see as a “Reform-lite” tone on immigration are making even the most loyal party activists have their doubts. Some now wonder what the point of this government is, if it seems determined to press ahead with policies that go against Labour values. Government concessions on welfare don’t appear to be enough to convince them; you’ve now ended up in a world where party members are referring to “two-tier welfare”. If a leadership challenge were to emerge, it wouldn’t take much to convince your average activist to support it.
Luckily for Keir Starmer, the party rules changed last year, handing control of the party leadership to MPs, whilst Labour is in government. The members have no mechanism to dislodge him; his MPs do. The welfare rebels alone don’t have the numbers or high-level (Cabinet) support to bring him down as things stand, but his authority is now shaken beyond belief, and his goodwill with loyalist MPs and members is running thin.
If he wishes to stay in power, Keir Starmer needs to do what he does best – be pragmatic and compromise. Just as he did after the disastrous Hartlepool by-election, the PM needs to take this latest political shock as a sign to change course, embrace his inner social democrat and be a progressive leader of the centre-left.
We’re already starting to see hints of this, in a recent interview for The Observer, Starmer said, “we have to be the progressives fighting against Reform – yes, Labour has to be a progressive political party”, the first time many will have heard him say those words for some time. In the same interview, he denounced his own ‘Island of Strangers’ speech and openly admitted mistakes had been made during the government’s first year. In fact, the series of in-depth interviews Starmer conducted over the weekend to mark his first year all appear to be early signs of a reset, an admission to the public and his backbenchers that he has made mistakes.
But if the Prime Minister truly wants to prove to his backbenchers that he is serious about this reset, he needs to do two things: kill Liz Kendall’s welfare bill and reshuffle his top team, including Morgan McSweeney.
The welfare bill has become toxic, inside and outside of Parliament. The concessions given by No.10 to the rebels do not appear to have worked; in fact, they were almost certainly never going to. The only way to get over this hurdle is to withdraw it entirely and admit that the proposals, however well-intended, are not the sort of thing a Labour government should be doing.
Keir Starmer needs a reshuffle
A reshuffle inside No 10 is the clearest way to signal to the PLP that the PM has listened, and that he is willing to consult with colleagues and embrace the progressive attitudes he feels it necessary to play down. The McSweeney strategy of chasing after Reform with a ‘Blue Labour’ strategy is counterproductive; it alienates the party base whilst failing to make any inroads against Farage. Replacing McSweeney would go a long way to steer the government off this course.
In short, he was elected as a Labour Prime Minister and must govern like one. Before it is too late, Keir Starmer must embrace this; he can’t out-Farage Farage and expect voters to the left of him to play along. He must fight Reform where they are weak and Labour is strong, on the NHS, defence and housing.
His premiership and the electoral fortunes of the Labour Party depend on it.
