In a highly surprising convention yesterday, Teamster President Sean O’Brien spoke at the Republican National Convention; the first time a Teamster has ever done this. With JD Vance being chosen as VP it looks as though Republicans are carrying out a charm offensive against unions. Can such an anti-union party win over organised labour?
How important is the Union Vote for the Democrats?
President of the Teamsters Sean O’Brien appeared to oppose endorsing either candidate in his speech yesterday. This would be the first time the Teamsters have done this since 1972. The Teamsters, a blue-collar union whose 1.3 million members are positioned primarily in the swing-states of the Midwest and North-East, have operated as a political machine for pro-labour democratic candidates since at least 1948. No one knows this better than Joe Biden. Biden’s election to the senate in 1972 was strongly assisted by Union voters, with Union enforcer Frank Sheeran alleging that the Teamsters held a trucking strike to prevent his opponent from distributing campaign material.
The two elections where the Democrats lost the union vote, 1972 and 1984, were also the worst landslides in the party’s history, with Democrats losing 49 of 50 states in both. With such long-standing commitment to the democrats, yesterday’s speech is nothing short of historic.
O’Brien’s RNC speech espoused that unions “are not beholden to anyone or any party”. This is bad news for a Biden campaign trying to position himself as “the most pro-union president in American history”. O’Brien seamlessly melded left and right-wing anti-corporate rhetoric, decrying “the elite”, “big Banks” and “big tech”. Whilst refusing to outright endorse Donald Trump, the move is undeniably unprecedented.
Are Union Voters becoming Republicans?
O’Brien’s speech is even more surprising given his rocky relationship with Republicans in the past. During a senate hearing in November 2023, O’Brien got into argument with Republican Senator Markwayne Mullin, eventually calling the senator a “clown” and challenging him to a fight in the Senate chamber. Historically, the feeling has been mutual. At a state level, Republicans have passed anti-union laws and most Republican voters have a negative view of Unions.
Union voters have historically been a key part of the Democratic coalition since FDR. Whilst varying regionally, Democrats are generally highly supportive of organised Labour. Despite Trump’s wave over the so-called ‘rustbelt’, union support has held surprisingly well. Even in 2016, when Democratic candidate Clinton was historically unpopular among union workers, and Trump historically popular, Clinton still won over Union voters by 8%. This lead was still, however, a historic low.
Joe Biden’s nomination came in part in response to this poor result. With his working-class roots and strong union record, Biden’s nomination was expected to galvanise union voters. In 2020 this worked, with the Democratic lead increasing to 16%. Since 2020, Biden’s support among union voters have slumped to historic lows, with the most recent poll reducing Biden’s lead to zero.
Biden’s campaign has been scrambling to reverse these numbers for some time, such as him becoming the first president to join a picket line during the UAW strike in the swing state of Michigan in late 2023. Republicans still look to be gaining among workers, however. As Republicans position themselves to win them over, why are Republicans so popular among union voters despite their anti-union record?
With their perceived support for the expansion of trade, Blue collar workers have increasingly turned towards Trump’s protectionist rhetoric. Additionally, Republicans have decried the excesses of corporate power, despite a record that shows limited action on this front, if not support for these excesses. There’s also social conservatism. Much of the midwestern working class tend to lean rightwards socially, something that JD Vance’s appointment is likely designed to appeal to.
What if The Teamsters Don’t Endorse Anyone?
O’Brien’s speech appears to position the Teamsters for neutrality, rather than open support, but that may be just as deadly for Democrats. In 1972, the Teamsters refused to endorse a candidate. The result was a crippling loss for Democrats among union workers. Beyond economics, there is little in common politically between union voters and other groups, with significantly more overlap on social views with Republicans.
Without Union leadership making the economic argument for Democrats, workers voted Republican en-masse. A McGovern-style landslide seems highly improbable. American unions are not nearly as powerful as they were in the 1970s, however, any greater loss of the union vote is likely to make the Rust-belt unsalvageable.
Final Thought
The RNC are clearly positioning towards the Union vote. Whilst ten years ago such a statement would only exist in the onion, Republicans do this in the context of a protracted decline among this important Democratic bloc. Victory over this key demographic is entirely possible and would make a Democratic victory even more improbable.
Whether or not this hands Trump the White House is not entirely clear yet, however, it’s unlikely to help the Teamsters. After declaring neutrality in 1972, The Teamsters’ leadership expected concession or at least moderation on the Republican’s anti-union stance. They were disappointed. With Trump term-locked, it seems unlikely that the president will feel any particular obligation once he gets in.
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This article was written by Chamber UK’s features writer – Alex Connor.
