Ahead of tomorrow’s pivotal General Election, Samuel Hemsley examines the seats to watch out for on election night.
Samuel Hemsley
Politics and International Relations student at the University of SheffieldSouth Yorkshire may be one of the most fascinating yet under-discussed areas ahead of the upcoming general election. This region has evolved into a more politically complex landscape, and the forthcoming election results will offer insights into trends that could define not only this election but future ones as well.
A Different Kind of Battle
The closest race in the county will be between Labour and the Liberal Democrats in Sheffield Hallam. Historically a Lib Dem stronghold from 1997-2017, with Nick Clegg, former party leader and Deputy Prime Minister, serving as MP from 2005-2017, this constituency presents a unique battleground.
As always with the Liberal Democrats, the topic of tuition fees looms large, a legacy of their coalition with the Conservatives. Interestingly, Clegg did not lose his seat in the 2015 wave but was defeated in 2017 by Jared O’Mara, who was later imprisoned for four years.
A Unique Demographic
Sheffield Hallam is a constituency of contrasts. It includes the student areas of Endcliffe and Randmoore, home to first-year University of Sheffield students, and Crookes, popular with second and third-year students. The rest of the constituency is relatively affluent, with average household earnings 17% higher than the national average.
In 2019, Labour’s Olivia Blake won with 34% of the vote, edging out the Liberal Democrats by a margin of 712 votes. The Conservatives also increased their vote share to 25%. For the Liberal Democrats and their candidate Shaffaq Mohammed to win this time, they will need to siphon off Conservative votes. This could be feasible, as Conservative voters may vote tactically if they believe a Keir Starmer government is likely, choosing to support the Lib Dems to prevent a larger Labour majority.
The Conservative candidate, Isaac Howarth, fresh out of university, may struggle with name recognition compared to Blake or Mohammed, a former MEP. Blake will benefit from incumbency and a stable presence but faces a tougher battle with the election date in July, as many students, who lean towards Labour, will not be in Sheffield.
Students will also influence the Sheffield Central constituency, home to most students from both Sheffield Hallam and the University of Sheffield. This could be a stronghold for the Green Party, which, while not expected to win, can build on their local council success, and set the stage for future elections. Sheffield Central mirrors university seats like Bristol Central, where the Greens challenge Labour.
Reform on the March?
The Conservatives may have some hope in Penistone & Stocksbridge, stretching from North West Sheffield to the Peak District. MP Miriam Cates, with a 7,210 vote majority, faces potential defeat according to current polling. However, her outspoken views on women’s rights and her role in the New Conservatives may help retain votes against Reform and Labour, especially as women’s rights have emerged as a campaign issue for Keir Starmer and Labour.
In Rotherham, the Tories have no chance, with their candidate withdrawing just before the deadline, leaving Reform with an opportunity to capture the seat from Labour. Labour might find itself squeezed by the Workers Party, appealing to the city’s significant Asian population with its pro-Palestine stance. The child sexual abuse scandal, highlighted by the 2022 Independent Inquiry into Child Sexual Abuse, remains a pressing issue, potentially benefiting Reform. However, Reform’s main challenge will be their lack of ground resources despite a strong media presence, particularly on TikTok. The silver lining for the Tories is that they can focus their efforts on re-electing Alexander Stafford in the neighbouring Rother Valley, where he needs substantial support to maintain his 6,318 vote majority.
In Barnsley, Reform also has a chance, having come second in both seats in 2019, just 3,000 votes shy of Labour. Given Reform’s polling parity with the Conservatives nationally, they could win both seats if their 2019 vote share holds and Tory voters switch to them.
Nick Fletcher, the third Tory MP in South Yorkshire, sees his Don Valley seat redefined as Doncaster East and the Isle of Axholme, potentially improving his chances with a notional majority of 10,085. His re-election campaign focuses on his efforts to reopen Doncaster Airport, with £138 million recently approved for the airport.
Final Thought
Whatever the outcome, South Yorkshire provides a unique lens to observe the dynamics between Labour, Conservatives, Liberal Democrats, and Reform, hinting at future electoral battlegrounds.
As the political landscape of South Yorkshire continues to evolve, the results of this General Election will be pivotal in shaping the region’s future. The intricate interplay of local issues, national party strategies, and the diverse electorate’s preferences will make South Yorkshire a critical area to watch this Thursday evening and Friday, offering valuable insights into the broader political trends that will influence the UK in the years to come.
For more of Chamber’s electoral analysis, please click here.
