Miles Bennington
Operations and Finance Director at Chamber UKDonald Trump has obliterated not only Sir Keir Starmer’s foreign policy but 80 years of British strategy. The leader of the only stable left-wing coalition in the G7 needs a new one.
For those of you that read my 5am reaction to Donald Trump’s election last year, you will be unsurprised that I am not entirely positive about what his Presidency portends.
Indeed, he has not disappointed so far. His furious pace has placed him well inside the decision loop of his adversaries, meaning that before they can punish him for his mistakes or even resist his decisions he is on to the next thing. Until someone, somewhere can slow him down and make him live in the consequences of one or more of his decisions, he is in the driver’s seat.
This sound and fury conceals a deeper reality for those in the UK foreign policy establishment, and Sir Keir Starmer in particular. The United States that we have known, the reliable ally that could be counted on, is gone. It won’t be coming back.
Even if Donald Trump leaves office in 2029 with a wink and a smile, gladly handing the keys to a Democrat, the seal is broken. Any British Government that treats the US as the reliable partner they were rather than the unstable colossus they are, is committing geopolitical malpractice.
Helpless!
Since the Second World War the UK has fit increasingly comfortably into the world the US has made. Multilateral institutions, the rule of law, the taboo against wars of conquest, the spread of universal values, freedom of navigation and free trade, these have all been a boon to a declining Britain as our power faded but our values were still enforced.
Our alliance with the United States has grown so deep that we are dependent on the US for our nuclear deterrent, GPS, spy satellites and their long logistical tail for military operations. Much of our best military equipment is US supplied from F-35 to Tomahawk cruise missiles, Boeing E-7 Wedgetail airborne early warning aircraft to Predator drones.
Our intelligence services are deeply integrated with the United States via the Five Eyes alliance allowing the sharing of signals intelligence as we have done since the Second World War.
Worse, the UK has grown dependent on American leadership. What is the UK’s plan for stopping Iran gaining a nuclear weapon sans American cooperation? How will Britain defend the Baltics if the US leaves NATO? If Trump does a deal on Taiwan will Britain have anything to say at all?
He Will Never be Satisfied
The second Trump administration signals an end to this kind of reliance and not just in the short term. The Republican Party and much of the American establishment has been quick to make peace with The Donald’s corrupt, zero-sum view of geopolitics. Most Republican Senators will vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard as Director of National Intelligence, a highly dangerous choice with views more aligned with the Kremlin’s than with Number 10’s. Cutting off aid, trade wars and spouting off about Greenland are just the most obvious examples of the global policeman becoming the global gangster.
As the world reels Sir Keir has made a good start in adjusting to this erratic and dangerous White House. Rolling with the punches, getting his ambassador in place, drawing closer to the EU without drawing the orangeman’s ire is all grist to the mill. No doubt that there will be many missives to react to in the coming years and it’s as well to keep the powder dry until a true crisis comes along. Ageing strongmen are rarely characterised by their restraint and Trump’s rule may get a lot worse before the end.
Many Brits may fantasise about a “love actually” moment when a British PM stands up to the American President but any such moment must be carefully prepared and concern an issue that unites the whole western world and ideally the American electorate as well.
If You Stand for Nothing, What’ll You Fall For?
Which leaves strategy. Assuming Britain still wants a stable world, with free trade and universal human rights, how do we get it?
First, we must dispense with what Madeleine Albright once called the “indispensable nation”. To gain a rules based order, there must be rules. The US can no longer be relied upon to share our values so it is time to disentangle from their sphere of influence. That means reshoring armaments manufacture, leaving Five Eyes if necessary, taking over security commitments the US is no longer committed to and developing strategy without the assumption of American support.
This will be a long, expensive and painful process. It means reviewing our dependencies and as far as possible removing the United States from them. Few have been a more fervent supporter of our alliance with America than I, but if we can’t depend on the US, we mustn’t.
Second, we must think hard about how democracies are to treat each other from here on out. While the US has been a relatively benign hegemon (much better than say… the British), they have been a hegemon. Often throwing their weight around to get their own way and ignoring the rules of their rules based order. It should be expected that our partners sign up to the International Criminal Court, Climate Accords and the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.
There are questions to be asked. Without America, does collective security still apply? Does NATO stand? Will Europe stand with Asian democracies? How will the alliance of free nations react without a strong singular leader? Are new structures necessary?
Third, we must develop an inspiring vision to sell our values to a skeptical world. The Chinese Dream of orderly growth and MAGA’s America First dominance must be countered by a liberal vision where free nations defend each other, international structures tackle problems such as climate change and poverty, and borders become less relevant as regional inequality is driven from the earth. Most of all we must explain how universal human rights lead to universal human flourishing.
History Has its Eyes On You
There is no country better suited to work on this strategy than the UK. We have a stable left aligned Government, global ties, an expeditionary military and a deep stake in global trade. We have already started on certain elements. The Tempest Project to build a 6th Generation Fighter is a joint project between the UK, Italy and Japan. It will provide the Japanese with a crucial capability in the Pacific without the need to rely on the United States.
As we have shown in Ukraine the UK can also use our strategic space to take the lead. We were first to supply the Ukrainians with tanks and long range cruise missiles, precisely because the Russians are at an arms length. Unlike Japan, or even Germany, the UK is far enough from any potential short-term adversary to make long range calculations.
In a world where previously reliable western partners are suddenly wobbly on all sorts of issues the UK needs to be clear on what we want and ready to work with whomever is available to achieve it.
Talk Less, Smile More
What this does not mean is picking fights with the Donald and declaring Sir Keir as the new leader of the free world (how did that work for you Angela?). In fact we should aim for the triumph of strategy over tactics which plays to our quiet, managerial Prime Minister’s strengths.
The strategy should be calm institution building that builds long term power. Without a clear view of who are friends are likely to be in 10 years its essential that the Foreign Office is properly funded, the BBC World Service is truly global, we have a clear narrative setting out our view of the world and we have independent capabilities to arm ourselves and our allies without sign off from Washington.
You’ll Be Back
It is a revolutionary moment and the old order has been washed away. That makes it the perfect time to set in motion institutions that will define the post revolutionary order. Perhaps Sir Keir should not look to George Washington’s leadership of a scrappy resistance movement but to Alexander Hamilton, an extraordinary institution builder who was less remembered but arguably continues to have a greater impact on day to day lives. This is the perfect time to critique the order lying at our feet. American leadership was often flawed, their adherence to the rules hypocritical, their hegemony corrosive to the cooperation of smaller powers.
Where 80 year old institutions are insufficient we should not be afraid of setting up new ones. Depending on how bad this trade war gets, perhaps there is room for a collective economic security front that will punish bad actors who use trade as a weapon. Perhaps if NATO is hamstrung we need a different alliance to support Ukraine incorporating allies from across the world. We still need a reliable way to support democracy and growth in developing nations.
Rather than sinking to Trump’s level, those democracies that are still on board should raise the bar. One day the US may return to the fold as a reliable ally and partner, but on that day they should join us not as our leader or hegemon but as another member of a club with all the responsibilities that implies. This revolution has just begun. Sir Keir should not throw away his shot.
