Professor Ann Keen
Former Health MinisterHealth, Care and Life Sciences Research Group and Advisory Board, Curia
This opinion piece details the two defections from the Tories to Labour in recent weeks – highlighting a significant shift in political allegiance, reflecting growing discontent with the Conservative Party and confidence in Keir Starmer’s leadership. As Labour consolidates its position and aims for victory in the upcoming General Election, these defections serve as pivotal indicators of a changing political landscape.
Two defections from the Tories to Labour in two weeks. And possibly not the last. Keir Starmer has unquestionably transformed Labour since our painful defeat in 2019. Along with swings of massive proportions in by-elections, impressive gains in local elections (and Sadik Khan winning an historic third term as London Mayor), these are all signs that Labour is at the very least in a highly competitive place for the next General Election, and most likely on course to form the next Government.
So, do these defections matter? Yes, because they reflect the mood of many people who in 2019 voted Tory and who now are so disaffected with the Conservative Party or so impressed by Starmer that they will support Labour at the next election. But more too. They also reveal how fed up and worn down these Tory MPs have become with continuing to vote for a government that has lost the plot.
Personal Reflections
Every defection is different. My own experience bringing Shaun Woodward to the across to the Labour Party twenty-five years ago was itself unique. I knew he had been happy in the first month following the 1997 General Election. He’d been elected into a party led by a centre politician John Major. However, within weeks of the new Parliament it was led by a figure from the right wing, William Hague. They were never going to be soul mates and anyone who knew Shaun knew that he felt increasingly isolated.
That was apparent when he and I worked together over cross party support for lowering the Age of Consent. He was in a small minority of Tories supporting the move. Hague’s further efforts to move the Tories further to the right on Europe further isolated Woodward as he was a passionate pro-European.
The breaking point was Section 28 reform. Labour would repeal this horrid legislation and Shaun, as Deputy Chairman of ChildLine, naturally supported reform. But Hague and the Tories disagreed and demanded he vote against our reform. Shaun was defiant and thus the Conservative Party sacked him from the Opposition Front bench.
He and I spoke every day through the next three weeks. I told him Labour would want him and he would be in a party which would allow him to be at home. He wanted to join us and we wanted him. That did not mean it was all plain sailing, but it was the right thing to do. For him. And for us.
Reflections on Current Defections
I understand Dan Poulter’s decision to defect. He must know as a doctor that under the Tories the NHS is being destroyed. The defection of Nathalie Elphicke is harder to see and to understand.
Neil Kinnock put brilliantly when he said Labour is a broad church, and we can all hear the walls creaking right now with the latest defection.
But we are wanting millions of former Tories to support us at the General Election. And as such, Nathalie’s defection is a reflection of the mood of the country. If she really believes what we are saying about the future and genuinely wants to help us achieve that, then other converted Tories, we should welcome her.
Final Thought
In this dynamic political climate, each defection serves as a barometer of public sentiment. Both Dan Poulter and Nathalie Elohicke’s moves underscore a broader trend: disenchantment with the Tories and a growing confidence in Labour’s vision. With eyes set on the General Election, these defections may just be the tip of the iceberg in reshaping the political landscape.
To read more about Chamber’s electoral analysis and the consensus surround the next general election, please click here.
