Mark Carney and Canada’s Liberal Party retained power in yesterday’s parliamentary election, though projections indicate they will fall short of an outright majority. With the Liberals leading or winning in 168 of the 343-seat House of Commons, they’re just short of the 172 needed for a majority and so are set to govern as a minority administration, seeking collaboration with smaller parties.
Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre has conceded defeat and committed his party to constructive opposition. In a significant personal setback, Poilievre also lost his persol parliamentary seat – held since 2004 – to Liberal challenger Bruce Fanjoy, who secured victory by a margin of 1,734 votes.
In his victory speech, Carney framed the election result as an historic moment for Canada. He said he’d made the pivot to politics in order to bring about “great changes” rooted in Canadian values of humility, ambition, and unity. He vowed to work collaboratively across party lines, with the provinces, and with indigenous communities.
He also directly addressed deteriorating relations with the United States, stating: “the old integration relationship with the United States is over.” He reiterated once more Canada’s sovereignty and he announced plans to meet President Trump soon to establish a clear stance between “two sovereign and independent nations.”
Central banker vs political veteran populist
Mark Carney called this election soon after he stepped in to replace Justin Trudea as Prime Minister – who had held the position for a decade. He resigned following an emphatic collapse in his popularity and mounting pressure from within his own party to step aside.
Carney succeeded Trudeau after winning the Liberal Party’s internal leadership vote by a large margin – securing 85 per cent of the votes. Carney is the first Prime Minister not born in one of the southern provinces but rather in the Northwest Territories. He grew up in Edmonton, Alberta, and studied at Harvard and Oxford.
Having previously served as Governor of the Bank of Canada during the global financial crisis of 2008 and later as Governor of the Bank of England during Brexit – Carney was able to lean into his track record for credibility as a competent crisis leader.
Nonetheless, Carney faced persistent criticism particularly from the Conservatives, who cited his globe-spanning career as a criticism – harking back to a line they attacked Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff with in 2011. Similarly to Carney – Ignatieff had spent much of his professional life outside of Canada before he returned to begin a career in electoral politics.
Carney’s opponent, 45-year-old Pierre Poilievre, offered a starkly contrasting political profile. Entering Parliament in Ottawa at the age of 25, the Tory has since focused on advocating for small government, low taxes and loosening environmental regulation. He has spent recent years fiercely attacking the Liberal government in claiming that their “disastrous” and “woke” policies resulted in a degraded quality of life.
He’s faced criticism for his populist, confrontational style, reminiscent of Trump, earning him the mocking nickname “maple syrup MAGA” at a time when perceived similarity to the American President has proved to be politically poisonous.
How Donald Trump resurrected the Liberal Party
Only a few months ago, the Liberal Party appeared set for a disastrous electoral defeat with some polls projecting them at less than 20% support nationally.
As previously noted, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and the Liberal Party had governed Canada for nearly a decade. Public fatigue had long since set in. Ever since the second half of 2023, the Conservatives had pulled significantly ahead in national polls.
By late 2024, the Conservatives were hungrily anticipating an electoral landslide. Some surveys suggested that 45 per cent of voters intended to support the Conservatives, compared to just 20 per cent who planned to vote for the Liberals in the scheduled election.
However, within the span of just two months, an overgrown orange-tinged toddler waddled into Canada’s political conversation and entirely upended it. Thanks to President Trump a Conservative victory seemed remote by the time polling day came around.
The reversal was not due to any misstep on the part of Pierre Poilievre, nor any genius on Carney’s part. It was triggered alone by the actions of one man: Donald Trump.
In a series of provocative statements, the President’s administration slandered Ukraine, dishonoured the memory of European servicemen who died in Afghanistan, and threatened Canadian sovereignty. In so doing Trump alienated broad segments of Canadian public opinion. His rhetoric caused an immediate backlash across the political spectrum. In the aftermath, Conservative support collapsed almost overnight, while support rallied to the Liberal flag.
Tensions escalated further when the President launched a tariff war against Canada and began alternating between instigating and withdrawing threats with little rhyme or reason. When Trump did impose tariffs the Canadian federal government retaliated with its own set of tariffs targeting C$30 billion (US$20.8 billion) worth of U.S. goods.
The immediate resentment against Canada’s southern neighbour presented a fortuitous opportunity for the Liberals – who took full advantage. In a bold gamble, Prime Minister Carney and his team opted to call a snap election for 28th April 2025. The Liberals’ calculations proved correct.
On the day of the federal election, Trump further inflamed tensions by posting a provocative message on his social media platform, Truth Social. He suggested that Canadians should vote for him – not for Canadian parties – in order to facilitate Canada’s annexation as the 51st state of the United States. Trump claimed that this would deliver significant economic and military benefits for Canadians, including halved taxes, enhanced military capabilities, and quadrupled business growth across multiple sectors. He described the U.S.-Canada border as an “artificially drawn line.”
After the election: What’s next for Canada?
Following Carney’s victory messages of congratulations from global leaders bubbled up in quick succession – with those from Europe being especially warm. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, and senior European Union officials expressed optimism about the potential deepening of economic, diplomatic, and security relationships with Canada under Carney’s leadership.
Von der Leyen specifically emphasised Carney’s victory was a crucial moment to reinforce shared democratic principles between Canada and Europe. Keir Starmer also underlined his enthusiasm for collaborating closely with Carney on defence, security, trade, and climate change initiatives. Carney’s known commitment to sustainability and economic reform aligns closely with the UK’s strategic interests in promoting climate-related financial policies globally.
Looking forward, Carney’s administration faces immediate challenges. Managing a minority government requires nouse and negotiation. Internationally, the critical task will be redefining the Canada-US relationship and balancing assertiveness on sovereignty with economic pragmatism. Additionally, Carney must seize opportunities to expand partnerships with European and UK counterparts, leveraging his unique global financial expertise.
Featured image via Harrison Ha/Shutterstock
