With America reeling from an attempted assassination on Donald Trump, the former president is set to address the Republican National Convention today. Does Saturday’s shooting make a Trump victory inevitable, or is has it only increased uncertainty?
Has the Shooting Guaranteed a Trump Victory?
“He just won the election” Derrick Van Orden told Politico shortly following the shooting. The idea that assassination attempts help presidential ratings is historically supported, with Reagan seeing an 8% poll bump following his injury in a shooting in 1981. With the most recent national polling showing Trump 6% ahead and House Democrats showing hesitancy with Biden, an equivalent polling bump seems fatal.
However, there’s good reason to be sceptical of a similar effect on Trump. Reagan’s assassination attempt came outside of an election season, in a far less polarised political climate. Today, a Telegraph Op-Ed pointed to extreme polarisation to argue that the shooting is unlikely to make any new converts at all. Many commentators have argued that the effect will likely only be in strengthening turnout among core supporters.
However, with 20% of voters undecided on their candidate and with moderates increasingly abandoning the President following his poor debate performance, many Americans are more to play for than some have suggested. Saturday’s attempt has likely weakened Biden’s line that “democracy is on the ballot” among moderates supportive of American constitutional norms. Whilst Biden has done his best to salvage the situation by incorporating the attempt into his broader theme of upholding democracy and uniting the country against chaos and division, Trumps (comparatively) measured response has likely weakened this line. Some have also highlighted the contrast between Trump’s strong reaction and the perceived frailty of his opponent.
These effects are likely to win over moderates just as much as they excite the base. However, until new polling data comes out, speculation on the effect on Trump’s support is just that. There does exist, however, one precedent that might help us predict the effect on the race.
Whilst the injuring of a major party in a shooting attempt is unparalleled in American history, the precedent of another democracy may show us what could happen. The shooting of Taiwanese president Chen Shui-Bian just before the highly polarised 2004 strongly parallels this weekend. Chen’s DPP party accused the KMT of being puppets of Beijing, whilst he KMT, for their part, accused Chen of being a populist authoritarian, producing posters comparing him to Hitler and Saddam Hussein. On March 19, a day before the election, a shooter hit Chen Shui-Bian in the abdomen, with the president only emerging from hospital on election day.
Although in the background of extreme polarisation, Chen saw a massive boost on election day, despite trailing in polls. Despite reservations with Chen’s divisive rhetoric, a significant number of non-aligned voters swung for Chen, seeing the attack as one on Taiwanese democracy itself. With a significant number of voters unsure of either candidate, it seems possible that a similar result could occur again in America.
However, Taiwan shows how in a divided political climate, boosts may be short-lived. Chen’s shooting attempt was the day before the election. Whilst Chen saw a temporary boost, a flurry of conspiracy theories quickly tarnished Chen’s popularity in the aftermath. With four months to go until the election and with opposing realities already flourishing online, Trump holding an immediate boost for a long period seems unlikely.
Conspiracy Theories and Polarisation
With several failings identified with Trump’s security, conspiracy theories of both the left and right quickly flourished on social media. In the hours following the attempt, the hashtag “staged” trended on X, with thousands of users alleging that the shooting attempt had been a false flag attack planned to boost Trump’s popularity, with some even alleging that the shooter had used a BB gun, despite the death of an audience member. The most senior endorsement of such theories was Dmitri Mehlhorn, an advisor to LinkedIn co-founder and senior Democratic donor Reid Hoffman, who claimed that the shooting was “staged so Trump could get the photos and benefit from the backlash.”
In contrast, Republican conspiracy theories have been endorsed by certain members of the party. Marjorie Taylor Greene was uncharacteristically charitable to the satanic she believes controls the US government, claiming that Democrats only indirectly enabled the attack. Congressman Mike Collins was less diplomatic, tweeting “Joe Biden sent the orders”. Trump himself has not yet endorsed a conspiracy theory, nor has he joined the eight congressional republicans who have accused Biden of inciting the assassination with his rhetoric. In fact, Trump has been unexpectedly conciliatory, pledging that his convention speech later today will emphasise unity, and will not focus on attacking Joe Biden.
With Biden’s main weakness increasingly highlighted, Trump’s strategy of conciliation is likely designed to blunt his weakness, being seen as an extremist.
With polling finding extremism and threats to democracy as the most pressing issues to US voters, and only one in three believing in an all-powerful ‘deep state’, Trump has realised that he has little to gain by isolating moderates through playing to a conspiratorial demographic he has already locked up. In the aftermath of this weekend, framing himself as a uniter against chaos is likely the strongest electoral strategy, and one that he is likely to commit to as long as it remains such. As the election cycle draws to a close, that may not continue to be the case.
Just as in the United States, following the 2004 shooting, Taiwanese internet users of the two major parties spread competing conspiracy theories. DPP supporters alleged that the KMT had worked with Chinese intelligence to assassinate Chen, whilst KMT claimed that Chen had faked the shooting to win the election.
Again, like America, leadership in both parties rejected conspiracy theories initially. However, following the election, no longer needing to appeal to moderates, both sides promoted their respective conspiracy theories to stir up their supporters. Unlike America, however, both candidates fell short of inciting insurrection, with KMT candidate Lien Chan telling 500,000 strong group of protestors gathered outside the Presidential palace to disperse.
Despite this, the attempt on Chen became the political fault-line that would define the following year’s intensification of division, with protests invading government buildings frequently. To DPPers, the event confirmed their belief that the KMT and China were working together, whilst to KMTers it showed how low the populist Chen would go to ensure his election. When Chen was later prosecuted for corruption in 2010, he claimed in speeches that “the KMT and the Chinese Communist Party” were once again working together to bring him down. With conspiracy theories on both sides already widespread, Saturday’s events are likely to tear Americans apart rather than to bring the unity both candidates claim to desire.
However, Taiwan’s example does bring an element of hope. Despite a decade of profound political discontent, Taiwan stands today as the most democratic nation in Asia. Just like the USA, Taiwan saw an attack on the legislature, the conviction of a former president and his attempted assassination, and yet it did not fall into civil war.
Final Thought
In many ways, Trump’s assassination attempt is an unprecedented event. In American history, it undeniably is. However, it is far from that in the history of the democratic world. Other democracies have survived similar conditions to America. However, even if Democratic institutions hold for now, competing conspiracy theories regarding the event are likely to define partisan division in coming years. Taiwan had the advantage of politicians who would not incite violence among their supporters.
As for the election itself, the attempt has simultaneously added credence to hardcore supporters’ belief in a deep-state whilst highlighting Trump’s vigour in comparison to Bidens. As Trump’s rhetoric today is promised to de-emphasise partisanship, Biden is unlikely to even get a boost among moderates in response to Republican conspiracy theories.
For more of Chamber UK’s analysis of American politics please click here.
This article was written by Chamber UK’s features writer – Alex Connor.
